2024 Political Polls

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CLT Heel said:
Are we going to be surprised, and see a state that was -for all intents and purposes- fully expected by both sides to be a given that it will be red in the election flip to a Harris victory?

I mean, I had basically been viewing NC in that way the whole time Biden was running, but at this point, I’ve allowed myself to dream and believe that NC can flip.

The big thing is that voters LOVE momentum. And ALL the momentum is with Harris now. This thing could start to snowball if the momentum grows, coupled with even a small sliver of PUB voters seeing what’s happening opting to stay home rather than vote for a loser.

I’m moving out of the CAUTIOUSLY optimistic category, and more into CFord space in believing this could be a big win.
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No chance. Since 2020, Red states have installed mechanisms and MAGA people to make sure that the results go the “right way” by hook or crook.
 
nycfan said:
One other note, by the end of 2023 the population of Texas had increased by over 1.3 million residents since the 2020 census. A lot of people have moved from California and the Northeast, but the political leanings of the migrants is not clear.
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I quoted a Texas Monthly survey in the past that shows California transplants to Texas are slightly more R than native Texans.
 
Hizer said:
Good.

Sincerely,

California
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Bad.

Sincerely,

The Other 49 States.

Seriously, the last thing blue states should be doing is exporting their red voters to lean red states. Instead, they should be exporting their excess blue voters to swing states.

Unfortunately, the internet is helping to get likes to move near likes — intensifying the electoral college problems.
 
Calheel said:
Bad.

Sincerely,

The Other 49 States.

Seriously, the last thing blue states should be doing is exporting their red voters to lean red states. Instead, they should be exporting their excess blue voters to swing states.

Unfortunately, the internet is helping to get likes to move near likes — intensifying the electoral college problems.
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This is all working toward the grand plan of getting as many red people in Texas as possible and then giving it back to Mexico. Win-win for everyone.
 
UNCMSinLS said:
Colin Allred is a damn good candidate. I think he's better than Beto. I would not be surprised at all if he won.
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Military vet. who wants common sense solutions at the border. He's flipping the script on Rafael, who did not beat Beto by that much.
 
CLT Heel said:
Are we going to be surprised, and see a state that was -for all intents and purposes- fully expected by both sides to be a given that it will be red in the election flip to a Harris victory?

I mean, I had basically been viewing NC in that way the whole time Biden was running, but at this point, I’ve allowed myself to dream and believe that NC can flip.

The big thing is that voters LOVE momentum. And ALL the momentum is with Harris now. This thing could start to snowball if the momentum grows, coupled with even a small sliver of PUB voters seeing what’s happening opting to stay home rather than vote for a loser.

I’m moving out of the CAUTIOUSLY optimistic category, and more into CFord space in believing this could be a big win.
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I just can't see Texas flipping. I hope I'm wrong though.
 
nycfan said:
Colin has a problem with left flank support in Texas.

Texas is still a mirage/fever dream, IMO. Allred is an affable football player facing off against one of the most unlikeable politicians of his generation, so there must be some outside chance that a blue wave in Houston and Austin might combine with Republicans who are sick of Ted to result in an upset, but it would be a pretty monumental upset. I wonder if it hurts Allred’s case if it appears Harris is going to win the presidency? It might cause Republicans who find Cruz repugnant to vote for him anyway to make sure the GOP holds the Senate.

Trump won Texas 52% - 46.5% in 2020. Cruz won his last election 51% - 48%, so Allred is polling about the same as Beto finished in 2018. But Cruz received fewer votes in 2018 (4.26 million to Beto’s 4.05 million) than he did in 2012 (4.44 million — his opponent only got 3.2 million votes), and Cruz has had several missteps in TX since then. Having Trump on the ballot probably shores things up enough for Cruz.
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100% correct

Texas is not happening for any statewide elections.
 
nycfan said:
One other note, by the end of 2023 the population of Texas had increased by over 1.3 million residents since the 2020 census. A lot of people have moved from California and the Northeast, but the political leanings of the migrants is not clear.
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Surely those californians and yanks are poisoning the blood. I keep waiting for the migrants to sway NC too...
 
www.rawstory.com

Far-right MAGA candidate losing in a 'blowout' and dragging Trump down with him: poll

Far-right North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson's bid for governor appears to be in trouble — and furthermore, it seems to be jeopardizing former President Donald Trump's own chances of carrying a state he narrowly won twice.A new poll from SurveyUSA found Robinson trailing Democratic state...
www.rawstory.com www.rawstory.com

Far-right North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson's bid for governor appears to be in trouble — and furthermore, it seems to be jeopardizing former President Donald Trump's own chances of carrying a state he narrowly won twice.

A new poll from SurveyUSA found Robinson trailing Democratic state Attorney General Josh Stein by a whopping 48-34. Vice President Kamala Harris, meanwhile, is up on Trump by a hair in a near-tie, at 46-45.
 
heelinhell said:
www.rawstory.com

Far-right MAGA candidate losing in a 'blowout' and dragging Trump down with him: poll

Far-right North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson's bid for governor appears to be in trouble — and furthermore, it seems to be jeopardizing former President Donald Trump's own chances of carrying a state he narrowly won twice.A new poll from SurveyUSA found Robinson trailing Democratic state...
www.rawstory.com www.rawstory.com

Far-right North Carolina Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson's bid for governor appears to be in trouble — and furthermore, it seems to be jeopardizing former President Donald Trump's own chances of carrying a state he narrowly won twice.

A new poll from SurveyUSA found Robinson trailing Democratic state Attorney General Josh Stein by a whopping 48-34. Vice President Kamala Harris, meanwhile, is up on Trump by a hair in a near-tie, at 46-45.
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Holy SHIT Stein .... that is unreal. If Stein wins that big, Trump will lose NC. There are not that many cross-voters.
 
nycfan said:
Colin has a problem with left flank support in Texas.

Texas is still a mirage/fever dream, IMO. Allred is an affable football player facing off against one of the most unlikeable politicians of his generation, so there must be some outside chance that a blue wave in Houston and Austin might combine with Republicans who are sick of Ted to result in an upset, but it would be a pretty monumental upset. I wonder if it hurts Allred’s case if it appears Harris is going to win the presidency? It might cause Republicans who find Cruz repugnant to vote for him anyway to make sure the GOP holds the Senate.

Trump won Texas 52% - 46.5% in 2020. Cruz won his last election 51% - 48%, so Allred is polling about the same as Beto finished in 2018. But Cruz received fewer votes in 2018 (4.26 million to Beto’s 4.05 million) than he did in 2012 (4.44 million — his opponent only got 3.2 million votes), and Cruz has had several missteps in TX since then. Having Trump on the ballot probably shores things up enough for Cruz.
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I agree. It's going to be an uphill climb. BUT, I still think this could be the best chance for a dem pickup to replace the loss of Manchin. I give Allred a 35-40% chance to win. That's a puncher's chance. It still makes me mad that democrats fumbled away opportunities to win Senate seats in North Carolina & Wisconsin in 2022. Arrrggghhhhh!
 
UNCMSinLS said:
I agree. It's going to be an uphill climb. BUT, I still think this could be the best chance for a dem pickup to replace the loss of Manchin. I give Allred a 35-40% chance to win. That's a puncher's chance. It still makes me mad that democrats fumbled away opportunities to win Senate seats in North Carolina & Wisconsin in 2022. Arrrggghhhhh!
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Cal Cunningham probably fled the country.
 
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