2024 Political Polls

[Bigs23]

Wisconsin and PA dont look very good there

There are other polls where they look much better.

 

[Igs149]

Her recent polling in PA has not been good, which is a major concern. It’s pretty much all she wrote if she loses PA.

There are many paths to victory with PA. Almost none without it. And I’m highly skeptical that GA or NC actually go blue in this election.

The campaign has to be laser focused on PA until Election Day.

 

[uncjhodges]

These numerous poll results, while encouraging that Harris is doing better than Biden, also cements that around 47-48% of our fellow Americans have no bottom, and no amount of conventions, interviews or debates will change that. Hillary caught hell for what she called them, but she wasn’t wrong.

Amazing that calling half of trump supporters deplorable led to the mainstream media fainting in disbelief and spending 4 years fellating rural people in diners but Vance can tell Harris to go to hell without a peep

 

[nycfan]

His predicted electoral votes and likelihood of winning and predicted swing state probabilities seem scrambled to me.

 

[lawtig02]

I don’t want to dismiss this just because I don’t want it to happen, but that seems highly contrary to all of the evidence we’re seeing right now.

 

[aGDevil2k]

His predicted electoral votes and likelihood of winning and predicted swing state probabilities seem scrambled to me.

How the hell does he justify that it all just flipped in 24 hours?

 

[nycfan]

Here is the explanation:

Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.

www.natesilver.net

“Although we wouldn’t advise worrying too much about the difference between a 52/48 race one way versus a 48/52 race the other way — it’s not a big difference — this wasn’t a good day for Kamala Harris in our model, as Donald Trump is the slight favorite for the first time since August 3.

There’s one big reason for that — Pennsylvania, which is the tipping-point state more than one-third of the time and where it’s been quite a while since we’ve seen a poll showing Harris leading (including two new polls today).

The model is also applying a convention bounce adjustment to Harris’s recent numbers, who has made gains in national polls, and you could argue about whether that’s the right assumption. But the bottom line is that the model has the Electoral College/popular vote gap opening up again, a concern for Harris all along. There’s now a 17 percent chance she wins the popular vote but not the Electoral College, the model estimates.”

 

[superrific]

Her recent polling in PA has not been good, which is a major concern. It’s pretty much all she wrote if she loses PA.

There are many paths to victory with PA. Almost none without it. And I’m highly skeptical that GA or NC actually go blue in this election.

The campaign has to be laser focused on PA until Election Day.

1. It depends on why she loses PA. If it's a state specific thing, then arguably she might be able to offset that loss with NC or GA. There's no inherent reason why she can't win either of those states. They have a bigger R partisan lean than PA, but again, if the PA thing is state-specific (i.e. fracking), then it's not game over.

2. If she wins PA, she's very likely to take MI and WI and that's pretty much all she needs.

3. And we get another idiocy of the electoral college. AZ + NV is enough to make up the loss of MI. It's not enough to make up the loss of PA. Does that make sense? I mean, I guess PA has more people than MI but it's not really about the population. It's about the arithmetic. It just so happens that the 4 EVs make a difference this go round, primarily because the Dems are winning VA instead of NC and because Utah just barely squeezed ahead of MN for the last EV.

And all of this, even though the vote margin would probably be the same in Michigan as Pennsylvania -- and proportionally bigger in MI. So it's better for Kamala to do better in PA than MI, even if she does worse in the two put together. It is so frustrating.

4. I still can't believe that there is no appetite in half the country to get rid of the EC. I get it -- ideology. But there's no reason that the GOP can't win in a non-EC world. They might need to tweak their policies a bit, and make more of an effort in CA, but it's doable. Meanwhile, the vast majority of the citizens in this country actually have no say at all about the next president, because only PA, MI, WI, NC and AZ matter (and not all of them do).

Every election boils down to four or five swing states. A constitutional amendment can pass with 38 states approving. It would undoubtedly be better for the 45 non-swing states to get rid of the EC and make their votes matter. And yet. And yet.

 

[nycfan]

 

[nycfan]

2024 Race: Harris And Trump Neck And Neck As RFK Jr. Exits Presidential Race, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Nearly 7 In 10 Think America's Best Days Are Yet To Come | Quinnipiac University Poll

"Conventions done, debates in the planning, rhetoric getting rougher, there's a slight numerical difference, but it is essentially a tie as the presidential race roars toward November 5th," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

poll.qu.edu

“… This is the first national survey of likely voters in the 2024 presidential election race by the Quinnipiac University Poll and cannot be compared to results of earlier surveys of registered voters. …”

 

[nycfan]

“…
In the wake of Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. suspending his presidential campaign as an independent candidate and endorsing Donald Trump, a majority of likely voters (64 percent) say RFK Jr.'s endorsement does not have an impact on their view of Trump, while 19 percent say it makes them think more favorably of Trump and 15 percent say it makes them think less favorably of Trump.

When asked their opinion of RFK Jr., 42 percent of likely voters say unfavorable, while 32 percent say favorable and 24 percent say they haven't heard enough about him. …”

 

[superrific]

Here is the explanation:

Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.

www.natesilver.net

“Although we wouldn’t advise worrying too much about the difference between a 52/48 race one way versus a 48/52 race the other way — it’s not a big difference — this wasn’t a good day for Kamala Harris in our model, as Donald Trump is the slight favorite for the first time since August 3.

There’s one big reason for that — Pennsylvania, which is the tipping-point state more than one-third of the time and where it’s been quite a while since we’ve seen a poll showing Harris leading (including two new polls today).

The model is also applying a convention bounce adjustment to Harris’s recent numbers, who has made gains in national polls, and you could argue about whether that’s the right assumption. But the bottom line is that the model has the Electoral College/popular vote gap opening up again, a concern for Harris all along. There’s now a 17 percent chance she wins the popular vote but not the Electoral College, the model estimates.”

I am skeptical that there will be a convention bounce this year, because of the odd circumstances of Kamala's ascendance to the nomination. I think the convention bounce is actually just voters getting to know her.

Of course, Nate's model doesn't know that. We don't know it either. We won't know it until later, when it will be a moot point. But certainly the case for a convention bounce adjustment is weaker this year than in the past.

Whether or not there is a convention bounce doesn't really matter. It will be sorted out in the polls in a couple of weeks.

 

[nycfan]

 

[nycfan]

 

[aGDevil2k]

When Texas starts to turn blue (and it will happen), that's when the National Popular Vote compact will pick up steam. the GOP will be FUBAR without NY, Texas and California, so then they will want to act to go to the popular vote

 

[Enigma94]

Here is the explanation:

Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.

www.natesilver.net

“Although we wouldn’t advise worrying too much about the difference between a 52/48 race one way versus a 48/52 race the other way — it’s not a big difference — this wasn’t a good day for Kamala Harris in our model, as Donald Trump is the slight favorite for the first time since August 3.

There’s one big reason for that — Pennsylvania, which is the tipping-point state more than one-third of the time and where it’s been quite a while since we’ve seen a poll showing Harris leading (including two new polls today).

The model is also applying a convention bounce adjustment to Harris’s recent numbers, who has made gains in national polls, and you could argue about whether that’s the right assumption. But the bottom line is that the model has the Electoral College/popular vote gap opening up again, a concern for Harris all along. There’s now a 17 percent chance she wins the popular vote but not the Electoral College, the model estimates.”

It seems counterintuitive that Trump is favored in their current model but it gives Harris a 17% chance of winning the popular vote but losing the electoral college. I thought it was a virtual certainty Harris will win the popular vote, so how can she only have a 17% chance of winning that while losing the election and at the same time Trump be favored?

 

[aGDevil2k]

It seems counterintuitive that Trump is favored in their current model but it gives Harris a 17% chance of winning the popular vote but losing the electoral college. I thought it was a virtual certainty Harris will win the popular vote, so how can she only have a 17% chance of winning that while losing the election and at the same time Trump be favored?

Because Nate's model is wonky as Hell and this year, with 1 month into her campaign vs many months, he can't really adjust it to match up with a 3.5 month long campaign season

 

[lawtig02]

47% for Trump is right on the line. He wins at 48%. He loses at 46%. At 47%, it’s truly a toss up.

 

[aGDevil2k]

We are in the season where the fears and pits in stomachs return

 

[lawtig02]

God, those mental fitness numbers . . .