I read that 538's aggregate data across several previous elections shows that the VP pick boosts their ticket by around 1.7 points on average in their home state. This is why I think Shapiro would be the best VP pick (among a group of really good options): a 1.7 point boost in such a close election in such a critical swing state as Pennsylvania, could be the tipping point.
I've been on the Shapiro bandwagon from Day One. He would bring so many positives to the ticket, including an increased likelihood of taking the critical state of Pennsylvania as you mentioned.
Agreed. I do think that he could *probably* help deliver PA even if he isn't on the ticket, but to me, if you have reason to believe that selecting Shapiro as VP would virtually certainly lock up PA, I think that passing on him would be like passing on Lebron James when you have the #1 pick. There's no need to overthink, IMO.
It won’t just be Fox, NewsMax, OAN, Sinclair, NY Post, and WSJ; it’ll be ABC, CBS, NBC, PBS, NPR, CNN, MSNBC, WAPO, NY Times, etc. showing and reshowing video of the protesters - especially confrontations with law enforcement, flag burning, vandalism, etc……repeating the audio of how this shows divisions among Democratic, Liberal, Progressive voters……asking how Harris and Democrats will respond to the protests and protesters.
Pennsylvania is pretty much like every other 2020 blue state (with a few exceptions in New England) in that the urban areas vote blue and the rural areas vote red. In PA, the eastern counties from Philly going north bordering New Jersey are urbanized and vote blue, as does the Harrisburg area, that big county in the middle of the state containing State College, and Erie and Pittsburgh (Biden won Pittsburgh/Allegheny County 60% to 40%.) It's less an east/west split than an urban/rural split just like Ohio and North Carolina and Wisconsin and Georgia and Arizona and Michigan and on and on.
On and on is right. That accurately describes every state in the country.
Most New England states are also an “urban” (blue) vs. rural (red) divide.
Yes, Vermont is a bit different from other states because so many hippies moved there in the 60s and 70s. Thus, its rural areas are not nearly as conservative as the other 49 states.
You know that part of Vermont better than I do. I remember you worked in VT for many years. I’d have lived in Keene over Brattleboro, too. Stowe is urban by Vermont standards (i.e.; nothing in Vermont is urban).
In Maine, there’s an area near Unity, ME that hosts the “Common Ground Fair” each Fall. The Unity Area has a crapload of “back to nature” hippies from the ‘60’s and ‘70’s. Many are now “Don’t Tread on Me” gun nuts who have “No Trespassing” signs every 2nd or 3rd tree on their property lines.
For sure there is plenty of Trump love in rural New England, just like there is everywhere else in rural US. But in my personal observations (mother’s family from Vermont) rural Vermont is considerably less pro-Trump than all the other rural areas in the US.
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Yeah, it's not just blue states that have an urban/rural divide, most larger red states do too. Texas, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina, etc. all also have urban blue islands surrounded by oceans of rural/suburban red. Even in the most heavily red states the few urban areas will vote Republican by a much smaller margin than the state's more rural areas. For example, in South Dakota Trump carried the state with 62% of the vote in 2020, but he carried the state's most populous county, the home of Sioux Falls, with only about 53%. Although there are exceptions, in modern American politics a good rule of thumb is that the more urban an area the more Democratic it is, the more rural a county the more Republican it will be. And that's true in both blue and red states.
In the words of James Carville, "Pennsylvania is Philadelphia in the East, Pittsburgh in the West, and Alabama in between."
i have been vacationing in Brattleboro the last few years - staying at kipling’s place. Brattleboro is still very granola, but seems to have a large homeless problem, and a lot of narcotics abuse. People coming out of the countryside for urban resources. New Hampshire across the river feels very red.
I was just there right after the 4th. The town is really cute. But yeah right outside of town was basically southern Alamance county