2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

[superrific]

I like Josh Marshall. It's weird to see him call Kamala leads of 1.8 and 1.3 as "non-trivial" as he then says 1.0, 1.3 and 2.0 is "barely behind.'

I mean, it's not literally inconsistent. A non-trivial lead is not a perfect antonym for barely behind. It's just rhetorically suspect.

 

[CFordUNC]

If New Mexico is truly a swing state then Democrats have no chance, imo. But I don't believe it's close to being a swing state - maybe Biden was struggling somewhat (although I still think he would have carried NM in the end) but with Kamala I think it's back to being reliably blue. If polls are to be believed (I know, I know) then Michigan is looking really good for Harris right now too, and I think she'll get Minnesota whether she names Walz as her running mate or not. The two real swing states on that list, imo, are PA and WI. Those two really are too close to call for either candidate.

I read that 538's aggregate data across several previous elections shows that the VP pick boosts their ticket by around 1.7 points on average in their home state. This is why I think Shapiro would be the best VP pick (among a group of really good options): a 1.7 point boost in such a close election in such a critical swing state as Pennsylvania, could be the tipping point.

 

[JCTarheel82]

I read that 538's aggregate data across several previous elections is that the VP pick boosts their ticket by around 1.7 points on average in their home state. This is why I think Shapiro would be the best VP pick (among a group of really good options): a 1.7 point boost in such a close election in such a critical swing state as Pennsylvania, could be the tipping point.

I've been on the Shapiro bandwagon from Day One. He would bring so many positives to the ticket, including an increased likelihood of taking the critical state of Pennsylvania as you mentioned.

 

[CFordUNC]

I've been on the Shapiro bandwagon from Day One. He would bring so many positives to the ticket, including an increased likelihood of taking the critical state of Pennsylvania as you mentioned.

Agreed. I do think that he could *probably* help deliver PA even if he isn't on the ticket, but to me, if you have reason to believe that selecting Shapiro as VP would virtually certainly lock up PA, I think that passing on him would be like passing on Lebron James when you have the #1 pick. There's no need to overthink, IMO.

 

[Zoo_View]

No doubt. Fox News will probably try to convince viewers that the protestors are all Harris delegates to the DNC and that flag burning and anti-Israel chants are being included in the party platform.

It won’t just be Fox, NewsMax, OAN, Sinclair, NY Post, and WSJ; it’ll be ABC, CBS, NBC, PBS, NPR, CNN, MSNBC, WAPO, NY Times, etc. showing and reshowing video of the protesters - especially confrontations with law enforcement, flag burning, vandalism, etc……repeating the audio of how this shows divisions among Democratic, Liberal, Progressive voters……asking how Harris and Democrats will respond to the protests and protesters.

 

[heelslegup]

Pennsylvania is such an odd state politically with the East.West division. If Harris does not pick Shapiro, she will IMO have to camp out in PA to win it. If she picks Shapiro, she can devote more time elsewhere. Dems will lose West Pa: the key is not to get boatraced there. Shapiro will help prevent thast. Beshear possibly couldf as well but Shapiro is a proven vote-getter in the state.
Picking Shapiro also gives Kamala Harris some politial cover to be a bit more even-handed on US policies toward Israel and the Palestinians than Biden has been. Palestinian sympathizers no doubt recall the idioticv Jared Kushner ME peasce plan which was essentially was a "how do I get a lot of money from the Israeli govt and the Saudis without changing the status guo."

 

[farce©]

Pennsylvania is such an odd state politically with the East.West division. If Harris does not pick Shapiro, she will IMO have to camp out in PA to win it. If she picks Shapiro, she can devote more time elsewhere. Dems will lose West Pa: the key is not to get boatraced there. Shapiro will help prevent thast. Beshear possibly couldf as well but Shapiro is a proven vote-getter in the state.
Picking Shapiro also gives Kamala Harris some politial cover to be a bit more even-handed on US policies toward Israel and the Palestinians than Biden has been. Palestinian sympathizers no doubt recall the idioticv Jared Kushner ME peasce plan which was essentially was a "how do I get a lot of money from the Israeli govt and the Saudis without changing the status guo."

Pennsylvania is pretty much like every other 2020 blue state (with a few exceptions in New England) in that the urban areas vote blue and the rural areas vote red. In PA, the eastern counties from Philly going north bordering New Jersey are urbanized and vote blue, as does the Harrisburg area, that big county in the middle of the state containing State College, and Erie and Pittsburgh (Biden won Pittsburgh/Allegheny County 60% to 40%.) It's less an east/west split than an urban/rural split just like Ohio and North Carolina and Wisconsin and Georgia and Arizona and Michigan and on and on.

 

[Calheel]

Pennsylvania is pretty much like every other 2020 blue state (with a few exceptions in New England) in that the urban areas vote blue and the rural areas vote red. In PA, the eastern counties from Philly going north bordering New Jersey are urbanized and vote blue, as does the Harrisburg area, that big county in the middle of the state containing State College, and Erie and Pittsburgh (Biden won Pittsburgh/Allegheny County 60% to 40%.) It's less an east/west split than an urban/rural split just like Ohio and North Carolina and Wisconsin and Georgia and Arizona and Michigan and on and on.

On and on is right. That accurately describes every state in the country.

But it is also true that E.Pa is much more urban than W.Pa.

 

[Zoo_View]

Pennsylvania is pretty much like every other 2020 blue state (with a few exceptions in New England) in that the urban areas vote blue and the rural areas vote red. In PA, the eastern counties from Philly going north bordering New Jersey are urbanized and vote blue, as does the Harrisburg area, that big county in the middle of the state containing State College, and Erie and Pittsburgh (Biden won Pittsburgh/Allegheny County 60% to 40%.) It's less an east/west split than an urban/rural split just like Ohio and North Carolina and Wisconsin and Georgia and Arizona and Michigan and on and on.

Most New England states are also an “urban” (blue) vs. rural (red) divide.

Maine has parts of it labeled “inland” for a reason; its 2nd Congressional District goes Red and voted Republican at times because it’s rural as hell. “Inland” is Trumplican as hell; so is “Downeast.” The so-called “People’s Republic of Portland” often swings the state blue. Lots of people from “away” have moved into places such as York County’s coastal communities (Wells, Ogunquit, York, Kennebunk, Kennebunkport) as year-round residents (particularly gays - Wells and Ogunquit rival Provincetown); they’ve turned York from what was a red county 20 years ago into a blue one.

Vermont is dominated by the “People’s Republic of Burlington” and liberal enclaves such as Middlebury and Montpelier help keep the state mostly blue; but, some of the rural parts ARE Appalachia (some of the rural areas are also “liberal” - Craftsbury Common, maybe Grafton Village, maybe near Mad River…..a few other places).

New Hampshire is dominated by MassHoles who moved to Nashua, Manchester, etc. Go into rural New Hampshire…..a buddy who grew up in Nashua would ask his Dad when they were on fishing, hunting, and backpacking trips, “Deddy, why do so many people in New Hampshire have rusted cars on cinder blocks?” He really didn’t use “Deddy.” The answer was, “Most of New Hampshire is Appalachia….a bunch of poor rednecks.”

Massachusetts is DOMINATED by Boston and its suburbs. Connecticut and Rhode Island by their “urban,” compact suburban areas. The rural areas are almost empty of people; many of those rural residents are as Trumplican as Alabama.

 

[farce©]

Most New England states are also an “urban” (blue) vs. rural (red) divide.

Maine has parts of it labeled “inland” for a reason; its 2nd Congressional District goes Red and voted Republican at times because it’s rural as hell. “Inland” is Trumplican as hell; so is “Downeast.” The so-called “People’s Republic of Portland” often swings the state blue. Lots of people from “away” have moved into places such as York County’s coastal communities (Wells, Ogunquit, York, Kennebunk, Kennebunkport) as year-round residents (particularly gays - Wells and Ogunquit rival Provincetown); they’ve turned York from what was a red county 20 years ago into a blue one.

Vermont is dominated by the “People’s Republic of Burlington” and liberal enclaves such as Middlebury and Montpelier help keep the state mostly blue; but, some of the rural parts ARE Appalachia (some of the rural areas are also “liberal” - Craftsbury Common, maybe Grafton Village, maybe near Mad River…..a few other places).

New Hampshire is dominated by MassHoles who moved to Nashua, Manchester, etc. Go into rural New Hampshire…..a buddy who grew up in Nashua would ask his Dad when they were on fishing, hunting, and backpacking trips, “Deddy, why do so many people in New Hampshire have rusted cars on cinder blocks?” He really didn’t use “Deddy.” The answer was, “Most of New Hampshire is Appalachia….a bunch of poor rednecks.”

Massachusetts is DOMINATED by Boston and its suburbs. Connecticut and Rhode Island by their “urban,” compact suburban areas. The rural areas are almost empty of people; many of those rural residents are as Trumplican as Alabama.

I worked in Vermont, just north of Brattleboro for 12 years and kept an apartment in Keene NH for 7 of those years. I guess Brattleboro is “urban” by Vermont standards but it’s just a small town anywhere else. Brattleboro was mostly just a bunch Birkenstock-wearing aging hippies (they wore them with rag wool socks as the weather got cooler, before boot season!) The people I worked with at the factory in Rockingham/Bellows Falls were overwhelmingly liberal. They hunted and fished and worked on their trucks like good ol’ boys everywhere but there weren’t many MAGAs among them.

 

[Calheel]

I worked in Vermont, just north of Brattleboro for 12 years and kept an apartment in Keene NH for 7 of those years. I guess Brattleboro is “urban” by Vermont standards but it’s just a small town anywhere else. Brattleboro was mostly just a bunch Birkenstock-wearing aging hippies (they wore them with rag wool socks as the weather got cooler, before boot season!) The people I worked with at the factory in Rockingham/Bellows Falls were overwhelmingly liberal. They hunted and fished and worked on their trucks like good ol’ boys everywhere but there weren’t many MAGAs among them.

Yes, Vermont is a bit different from other states because so many hippies moved there in the 60s and 70s. Thus, its rural areas are not nearly as conservative as the other 49 states.

 

[Zoo_View]

I worked in Vermont, just north of Brattleboro for 12 years and kept an apartment in Keene NH for 7 of those years. I guess Brattleboro is “urban” by Vermont standards but it’s just a small town anywhere else. Brattleboro was mostly just a bunch Birkenstock-wearing aging hippies (they wore them with rag wool socks as the weather got cooler, before boot season!) The people I worked with at the factory in Rockingham/Bellows Falls were overwhelmingly liberal. They hunted and fished and worked on their trucks like good ol’ boys everywhere but there weren’t many MAGAs among them.

You know that part of Vermont better than I do. I remember you worked in VT for many years. I’d have lived in Keene over Brattleboro, too. Stowe is urban by Vermont standards (i.e.; nothing in Vermont is urban).

Your factory was a union shop, right? I’d guess your workers were more pro-union than Liberal; but, I’m guessing.

Brattleboro’s largest employer is now a grocery wholesaler. Doubt they pay as well as a factory.

My perception of Brattleboro was it was/and is a hardscrabble old mill town that had been a transportation “hub” along the Connecticut River (several railroads converged on it) and had been “surrounded” by a good number of successful farms (successful in a Vermont and Northern New England sense). The mills are gone; the railroads are gone; the farms are gone.

It’s what 12-15,000 people?

It likely has a goodly number of Trumplicans in-and-around it.

 

[Zoo_View]

Yes, Vermont is a bit different from other states because so many hippies moved there in the 60s and 70s. Thus, its rural areas are not nearly as conservative as the other 49 states.

In Maine, there’s an area near Unity, ME that hosts the “Common Ground Fair” each Fall. The Unity Area has a crapload of “back to nature” hippies from the ‘60’s and ‘70’s. Many are now “Don’t Tread on Me” gun nuts who have “No Trespassing” signs every 2nd or 3rd tree on their property lines.

The “back-to-nature” hippies never overwhelmed the locals in Northern New England…….farming is too damn hard.

Plenty of Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine rural residents are Trumplicans; they’ve been overwhelmed by the populations of Burlington, Nashua, Manchester, Portsmouth, and Portland.

Rural New England is as Appalachia as SW Virginia or North Georgia.

 

[Calheel]

In Maine, there’s an area near Unity, ME that hosts the “Common Ground Fair” each Fall. The Unity Area has a crapload of “back to nature” hippies from the ‘60’s and ‘70’s. Many are now “Don’t Tread on Me” gun nuts who have “No Trespassing” signs every 2nd or 3rd tree on their property lines.

The “back-to-nature” hippies never overwhelmed the locals in Northern New England…….farming is too damn hard.

Plenty of Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine rural residents are Trumplicans; they’ve been overwhelmed by the populations of Burlington, Nashua, Manchester, Portsmouth, and Portland.

Rural New England is as Appalachia as SW Virginia or North Georgia.

For sure there is plenty of Trump love in rural New England, just like there is everywhere else in rural US. But in my personal observations (mother’s family from Vermont) rural Vermont is considerably less pro-Trump than all the other rural areas in the US.

And while many of the hippies couldn’t hack it and many others turned conservative, there is still a very large liberal, rural demographic in Vermont compared to comparable rural areas in other states.

Vermont documents '70s shift from conservative to hippie

BURLINGTON, Vt. (AP) — Aside from peace signs and food cooperatives, the 1970s influx of longhaired youth to Vermont brought experimental communes to the hillsides and social activism, as well as drug use and fears of a hippie invasion.

apnews.com

 

[farce©]

You know that part of Vermont better than I do. I remember you worked in VT for many years. I’d have lived in Keene over Brattleboro, too. Stowe is urban by Vermont standards (i.e.; nothing in Vermont is urban).

Your factory was a union shop, right? I’d guess your workers were more pro-union than Liberal; but, I’m guessing.

Brattleboro’s largest employer is now a grocery wholesaler. Doubt they pay as well as a factory.

My perception of Brattleboro was it was/and is a hardscrabble old mill town that had been a transportation “hub” along the Connecticut River (several railroads converged on it) and had been “surrounded” by a good number of successful farms (successful in a Vermont and Northern New England sense). The mills are gone; the railroads are gone; the farms are gone.

It’s what 12-15,000 people?

It likely has a goodly number of Trumplicans in-and-around it.

Not a union shop. You are right on about your population estimate of Brattleboro. Keene is across the river and is about 25,000. Bellows Falls is where the business is and that’s right across the river from Walpole NH (where Ken Burns lives and has his production studio.) We pulled employees from all over SE VT and SW NH. We paid more than C&S in our factory (skilled CNC operators, machinists, etc) but did compete with them for employees in our distribution center and for white collar staff.

The Vermonters used to say if your family hasn’t lived on the same mountain for 5 generations, you’re a newcomer (probably a Masshole)

 

[Icky Mettle]

I’m at our place in the NY Finger Lakes right now. Talk about an area with fervent Trump support. It’s “yuuuge” around here. And the way some of these Trump supporters show their support is crazy. They decorate their house with Trump stuff like some people decorate their houses for Christmas. And funny enough, a lot of that decorating also consists of a some anti-Biden stuff as well. I drove by one house that, in addition to a bunch of signs and flags that I didn’t pay close attention to, had a giant cardboard cutout of Trump on one side of the house, and a gigantic sign on the other side— covering up an entire half of that house— calling Joe Biden “Dictator in Chief.” These people are nuts.

 

[Mulberry Heel]

On and on is right. That accurately describes every state in the country.

But it is also true that E.Pa is much more urban than W.Pa.

Yeah, it's not just blue states that have an urban/rural divide, most larger red states do too. Texas, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina, etc. all also have urban blue islands surrounded by oceans of rural/suburban red. Even in the most heavily red states the few urban areas will vote Republican by a much smaller margin than the state's more rural areas. For example, in South Dakota Trump carried the state with 62% of the vote in 2020, but he carried the state's most populous county, the home of Sioux Falls, with only about 53%. Although there are exceptions, in modern American politics a good rule of thumb is that the more urban an area the more Democratic it is, the more rural a county the more Republican it will be. And that's true in both blue and red states.

 

[05C40]

On and on is right. That accurately describes every state in the country.

But it is also true that E.Pa is much more urban than W.Pa.

In the words of James Carville, "Pennsylvania is Philadelphia in the East, Pittsburgh in the West, and Alabama in between."

 

[altmin]

I worked in Vermont, just north of Brattleboro for 12 years and kept an apartment in Keene NH for 7 of those years. I guess Brattleboro is “urban” by Vermont standards but it’s just a small town anywhere else. Brattleboro was mostly just a bunch Birkenstock-wearing aging hippies (they wore them with rag wool socks as the weather got cooler, before boot season!) The people I worked with at the factory in Rockingham/Bellows Falls were overwhelmingly liberal. They hunted and fished and worked on their trucks like good ol’ boys everywhere but there weren’t many MAGAs among them.

i have been vacationing in Brattleboro the last few years - staying at kipling’s place. Brattleboro is still very granola, but seems to have a large homeless problem, and a lot of narcotics abuse. People coming out of the countryside for urban resources. New Hampshire across the river feels very red.

 

[aGDevil2k]

i have been vacationing in Brattleboro the last few years - staying at kipling’s place. Brattleboro is still very granola, but seems to have a large homeless problem, and a lot of narcotics abuse. People coming out of the countryside for urban resources. New Hampshire across the river feels very red.

I was just there right after the 4th. The town is really cute. But yeah right outside of town was basically southern Alamance county