2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

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Icky Mettle said:
I really hate the electoral college game. Such a stupid concept.
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It reminds me of the character “Uncle Dub,” in Doug Marlette’s “Kudzu” comic strip. Uncle Dub was considered the last swing voter in the country……whoever Uncle Dub voted for won the presidency each election; so, the national media was all over the town of Kudzu trying to learn who Uncle Dub was voting for.
 
rodoheel said:
I think that's a little optimistic. I think all available data suggests the race is very tight and is likely to remain tight. And I think more than just a Kamala mistake can shift things back to Trump - the most obvious possible event is a run of bad economic news.
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Hezbollah v. Israel war also likely loses Harris the election.

“Progressives” are the wild card in this election - they aren’t voting for Trump; but, they might not vote to “show up” the Democrats.
 
duluoz said:
I'm happy for the campaign to keep attacking it as though they're in a close race. Given the registration numbers I've seen, combined with the polling aggregates, I just don't think it's actually that close anymore.

But what they won't do this time is make the same mistake that Hillary and the DNC made -- shift budget over to House and Senate races, and slow campaign trail stops in key states and regions. If Hillary hadn't coasted and instead had acted like she was in a close race, we would've never been in this mess in the first place. Comey notwithstanding, she got outworked in the home stretch of that race.

Harris won't. In fact, he's the one who has been inexplicably coasting, relatively.
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His internal polling likely shows that the more visible he his, the more he loses support.

I doubt his “staff” has to work hard to get him to golf rather than campaign.
 
Igs149 said:
Agree I see more variance in support for Kamala given Trump is a far more known quality. And Trump will go as down low as can be imagined (or is beyond imagination).

But by no means is Kamala in’s a position where merely avoiding a major mistake is sufficient to win this election.

She’s reset the election and made it winnable. But she needs to pick up vote share across multiple demographics to win this election. So she has to not merely avoid a major mistake, but also net out gains in multiple voter groups between now and election day. And, she / the Democratic party cannot afford to lose the benefit of renewed Democratic enthusiasm or surging registrations. Once again, that’s not merely a matter of avoiding a mistake. There is an incredible amount of work to be done.
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Agree to disagree to a point.

Kamala didn't make this winnable, this game never wasn't "winnable." Kamala is Kendall Marshall. This was a game that was -12 Dems and was 84-80 Dems midway in the 2nd half with a broken down PG who was turning the ball over and making bad decisions against a poorer team.

This reminds me of what the team felt when Larry Drew left the team and Kendall was given the keys. We knew we needed a change and seemingly the coach was staying status quo. Once Drew left, Kendall came in and the mojo instantly changed. We weren't getting pummeled with Drew in there, but we weren't nearly as good either and Kendall made us the contender we thought we would be. That doesn't mean we don't need to finish games and we win by just walking out there, but the team was always better, but they are WAY better with Kendall at the helm.

With Drew, we win this game by a bit, with an outside chance of losing. With Kendall, we can of course lose based on when he entered the game, but we more probably win and we even more probably win beyond the spread.
 
SnoopRob said:
Wow.

You and I certainly have different conceptions of elections in 2024.
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Trump is a very weak candidate who lost in 2020 and has not only continued losing supporters since then, has not broadened a base at all and has had the Dobbs decision and J6 since he lost. Prominent Republicans are not only speaking out against him, but also endorsing Harris, something that didn't happen in 2020. He was the foregone conclusion in the Republican primaries this go round and still received 80% or less of the vote even after Haley dropped out.

He had no room for error going into this election, and he not only has exceeded that error margin, he continues to bleed it. I know people want to focus on the polls, and they are informative, but they are just a bit of the story, especially these days where good polling is very hard. They are a snapshot in time and not necessarily predictive, especially since Dobbs where right-wing polling has overstated the right's impact. The Red Wave was a Red ripple that led to McCarthey being ousted. Democrats have outvoted the polls consistently since then, MAGA candidates have been consistent failures across the board with the exception of a few. When you couple that with waning enthusiasm on the right, climbing enthusiasm on the left, center right leaving Trump in droves, he needs a miracle to win. Never say never, but people are playing with PTSD of a 12 seed beating a 5 seed. This is a weaker 13 seed seed playing a 4 seed where the 13 seed has an injured star who has carried them the entire season.

Do I think Trump can win? With the electoral college, Absolutely. Do I think he will win? No. Do I think he will lose? Yes. Do I think he'll lose by a lot? Yes.

If Biden was 65 years old, this would have been over by now already. The only reason it has been this close was because his age, period. Trump is not a winning candidate, he was just hoping his opponent would beat himself.
 
Icky Mettle said:
I think people who identify abortion rights as the most important issue to them are people who have always been at least fairly politically aware and would come to the polls anyway. And they have been historically pro-Democrat. It’s that small group of undecideds for whom this provides an out. I was listening to a segment on NPR this morning where they were talking to undecided voters. One woman leaned Trump, but she was torn because she also wanted to protect abortion rights. I don’t know where she was from, but if she lived in Arizona, for example, she can have it both ways in the voting booth. If she lives somewhere where abortion rights are not on the ballot, then that very well could be what pulls her from Trump to Harris. If anyone is undecided simply because they are okay with Trump but also want to protect abortion rights (and there are such people, as crazy and counterintuitive as that may sound), then putting it on the ballot a la carte favors Trump in those situations.
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There may be a not insignificant number of younger voters who might otherwise have been uninterested who will vote for Harris instead of not voting.
There may be a not insignificant number of voters who voted for trump in the past, but this is a bridge too far, and they flip to Harris.
I don't think this is a persuasion election as much as it will be a turnout election, though, and states with abortion on the ballot, or abortion and marijuana, like Florida, may have a difference-making turnout that the polls aren't modeling.
 
BurtoniumAD said:
Trump is a very weak candidate who lost in 2020 and has not only continued losing supporters since then, has not broadened a base at all and has had the Dobbs decision and J6 since he lost. Prominent Republicans are not only speaking out against him, but also endorsing Harris, something that didn't happen in 2020. He was the foregone conclusion in the Republican primaries this go round and still received 80% or less of the vote even after Haley dropped out.

He had no room for error going into this election, and he not only has exceeded that error margin, he continues to bleed it. I know people want to focus on the polls, and they are informative, but they are just a bit of the story, especially these days where good polling is very hard. They are a snapshot in time and not necessarily predictive, especially since Dobbs where right-wing polling has overstated the right's impact. The Red Wave was a Red ripple that led to McCarthey being ousted. Democrats have outvoted the polls consistently since then, MAGA candidates have been consistent failures across the board with the exception of a few. When you couple that with waning enthusiasm on the right, climbing enthusiasm on the left, center right leaving Trump in droves, he needs a miracle to win. Never say never, but people are playing with PTSD of a 12 seed beating a 5 seed. This is a weaker 13 seed seed playing a 4 seed where the 13 seed has an injured star who has carried them the entire season.

Do I think Trump can win? With the electoral college, Absolutely. Do I think he will win? No. Do I think he will lose? Yes. Do I think he'll lose by a lot? Yes.

If Biden was 65 years old, this would have been over by now already. The only reason it has been this close was because his age, period. Trump is not a winning candidate, he was just hoping his opponent would beat himself.
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Sorry I want to agree but I can't. An Obama 08 style win gives Harris Florida, Ohio, ME2, and Iowa in addition to all the swing states. In that scenario, Texas is also in play. There's no shot.
 
BurtoniumAD said:
Trump is a very weak candidate who lost in 2020 and has not only continued losing supporters since then, has not broadened a base at all and has had the Dobbs decision and J6 since he lost. Prominent Republicans are not only speaking out against him, but also endorsing Harris, something that didn't happen in 2020. He was the foregone conclusion in the Republican primaries this go round and still received 80% or less of the vote even after Haley dropped out.

He had no room for error going into this election, and he not only has exceeded that error margin, he continues to bleed it. I know people want to focus on the polls, and they are informative, but they are just a bit of the story, especially these days where good polling is very hard. They are a snapshot in time and not necessarily predictive, especially since Dobbs where right-wing polling has overstated the right's impact. The Red Wave was a Red ripple that led to McCarthey being ousted. Democrats have outvoted the polls consistently since then, MAGA candidates have been consistent failures across the board with the exception of a few. When you couple that with waning enthusiasm on the right, climbing enthusiasm on the left, center right leaving Trump in droves, he needs a miracle to win. Never say never, but people are playing with PTSD of a 12 seed beating a 5 seed. This is a weaker 13 seed seed playing a 4 seed where the 13 seed has an injured star who has carried them the entire season.

Do I think Trump can win? With the electoral college, Absolutely. Do I think he will win? No. Do I think he will lose? Yes. Do I think he'll lose by a lot? Yes.

If Biden was 65 years old, this would have been over by now already. The only reason it has been this close was because his age, period. Trump is not a winning candidate, he was just hoping his opponent would beat himself.
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I hope you are correct.
 
quakerdevil said:
Sorry I want to agree but I can't. An Obama 08 style win gives Harris Florida, Ohio, ME2, and Iowa in addition to all the swing states. In that scenario, Texas is also in play. There's no shot.
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Well since in 08 Obama did NOT win Arizona or Georgia (worth 25 EVs in 08), then you can flip Ohio and Iowa red (losing 27 in 2008 value) and it’s basically a wash. So really you’re just talking about Florida.
 
rodoheel said:
Of the current "swing states," this is how I would rank them with respect to my confidence that Harris carries them:

1. Wisconsin - feel pretty confident here
2. Michigan - you could flip this with Wisconsin and I wouldn't argue
3. Arizona - not sure this aligns with the data but I think Kari Lake is going to lose by several points and be a big anchor on Trump here
4. Pennsylvania - the likely tipping point state; I'm really nervous about the polling
5. Georgia - only four letters that matter here: G-O-T-V. If Dems can get their urban voters to the polls (and get their votes in over all the likely Republican vote-suppressing shenanigans) they can win here.
6. Nevada - see my post above, I think this one is trending away from Dems in a macro sense
7. NC - I'll believe it when I see it
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Great that 1 WI and 2 MI have moved toward a realistic expectation of going blue, even though they are still being in play. I'm hopeful with Baldwin and Slotkin.
3 AZ seems like a red-lean, and I'm still shocked Biden carried it in 2020, but I agree Lake is an anchor, so still a toss-up.
4 PA is for all the marbles, and I don't expect to know the outcome there until Nov 10-12. I hope Casey and Shapiro help, but it isn't showing yet.
5 GA Harris will not be allowed to win there. The new election board has almost assured that. Will be messy, ugly, and worse than a GA outhouse in July. There will be more lawsuits than counties, and if Harris gets more votes than trump, I don't expect it to be settled in time for J6, 2025.
6 NV Rosen seems to be doing well, but Nevada is, shall I say, weird. The good thing is Nevada won't be needed unless Harris loses PA, but even then needs to combine with AZ, GA, or NC.
7 NC How heavy are the anchors Robinson and Morrow???

I'm more hopeful now that WI and MI look better, if some of these move only 1 percentage point toward trump, he could still win it.

"I still love America, I just don't know how to get there anymore." - John Prine, 1971
 
quakerdevil said:
Sorry I want to agree but I can't. An Obama 08 style win gives Harris Florida, Ohio, ME2, and Iowa in addition to all the swing states. In that scenario, Texas is also in play. There's no shot.
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That's fine, but here is where I think it will shake out:

Harris wins Blue Wall states, NE-2, Arizona, Georgia & NC.

I think Ohio is winnable but won't do it.

I think Florida is way closer than people want to believe and definitely think it's possible - the fact that the Trump campaign is pouring money into Florida should tell you how scared they are.

I think Nevada is possible.

Texas won't do it this time, but Republicans have a real Texas problem. Texas is going to be a swing state in the next election which basically makes Republicans non-electable at the national scale. The gap has been tightening in every election. By 2032, Texas will be light blue, IMO.

I do not think Democrats win Texas and Florida this go round, but I think they make all of the above in play, which makes 28 and the future very bad for Republicans, especially when you realize Trump will run yet again once he loses this time around, his family runs the RNC, etc. 28 may be a Reaganesuqe drubbing and beyond.
 
lawtig02 said:
At a macro level, I think we’re now to the point where the election comes down to one question — can Kamala avoid a major mistake? If she can, she wins. Trump’s support is capped. He’s not even trying to win new voters now. He’ll be doing everything he can to drive down Dem enthusiasm, but realistically, the only way that happens is if Kamala says something really stupid, a new (legitimate) scandal emerges, etc.

The biggest problem for Trump, though, is that Kamala’s support is not yet capped. She’s still not universally known, and even many of those who know her don’t know what she really stands for. She can still bring people off the sideline. Trump can’t.

Get ready for the ugliest, most negative two months in the recent history of presidential politics. Trump and his sycophants will be doing everything they can to make Kamala trip. She just needs to stay on her feet and shrug off the muck that will be thrown her way. I think she can do it.
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Internal trump campaign comms are that they can't make trump likeable, so their only hope is to make Harris unlikeable.
 
BurtoniumAD said:
That's fine, but here is where I think it will shake out:

Harris wins Blue Wall states, NE-2, Arizona, Georgia & NC.

I think Ohio is winnable but won't do it.

I think Florida is way closer than people want to believe and definitely think it's possible - the fact that the Trump campaign is pouring money into Florida should tell you how scared they are.

I think Nevada is possible.

Texas won't do it this time, but Republicans have a real Texas problem. Texas is going to be a swing state in the next election which basically makes Republicans non-electable at the national scale. The gap has been tightening in every election. By 2032, Texas will be light blue, IMO.

I do not think Democrats win Texas and Florida this go round, but I think they make all of the above in play, which makes 28 and the future very bad for Republicans, especially when you realize Trump will run yet again once he loses this time around, his family runs the RNC, etc. 28 may be a Reaganesuqe drubbing and beyond.
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From your lips to god's ears.

If you think this is going to happen, you could get very good odds in the betting markets right now. $10 wins you $300 on polymarket.
 
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