2024 Political Polls

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lawtig02 said:
At a macro level, I think we’re now to the point where the election comes down to one question — can Kamala avoid a major mistake? If she can, she wins. Trump’s support is capped. He’s not even trying to win new voters now. He’ll be doing everything he can to drive down Dem enthusiasm, but realistically, the only way that happens is if Kamala says something really stupid, a new (legitimate) scandal emerges, etc.

The biggest problem for Trump, though, is that Kamala’s support is not yet capped. She’s still not universally known, and even many of those who know her don’t know what she really stands for. She can still bring people off the sideline. Trump can’t.

Get ready for the ugliest, most negative two months in the recent history of presidential politics. Trump and his sycophants will be doing everything they can to make Kamala trip. She just needs to stay on her feet and shrug off the muck that will be thrown her way. I think she can do it.
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Agree I see more variance in support for Kamala given Trump is a far more known quality. And Trump will go as down low as can be imagined (or is beyond imagination).

But by no means is Kamala in’s a position where merely avoiding a major mistake is sufficient to win this election.

She’s reset the election and made it winnable. But she needs to pick up vote share across multiple demographics to win this election. So she has to not merely avoid a major mistake, but also net out gains in multiple voter groups between now and election day. And, she / the Democratic party cannot afford to lose the benefit of renewed Democratic enthusiasm or surging registrations. Once again, that’s not merely a matter of avoiding a mistake. There is an incredible amount of work to be done.
 
quakerdevil said:
To be fair we were dealing with an unprecedented amount of mail in voting in 2020. I'll be shocked if we don't know night of in November.
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On election night in 2008, my older brother was visiting me and my wife was out of town. We stayed up until 4 AM, waiting for the Cumberland County results to come in and put NC in Obama's column. The overall result was already know at that point. But, sometimes I wonder if Obama got just enough hard-core racist votes in NC to win because these racists were sure he would lose, but wanted to say, "But, I voted for Obama." An expression that later morphed into "I'm not a racist. I voted for Obama, once."
 
lawtig02 said:
At a macro level, I think we’re now to the point where the election comes down to one question — can Kamala avoid a major mistake? If she can, she wins. Trump’s support is capped. He’s not even trying to win new voters now. He’ll be doing everything he can to drive down Dem enthusiasm, but realistically, the only way that happens is if Kamala says something really stupid, a new (legitimate) scandal emerges, etc.

The biggest problem for Trump, though, is that Kamala’s support is not yet capped. She’s still not universally known, and even many of those who know her don’t know what she really stands for. She can still bring people off the sideline. Trump can’t.

Get ready for the ugliest, most negative two months in the recent history of presidential politics. Trump and his sycophants will be doing everything they can to make Kamala trip. She just needs to stay on her feet and shrug off the muck that will be thrown her way. I think she can do it.
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I think that's a little optimistic. I think all available data suggests the race is very tight and is likely to remain tight. And I think more than just a Kamala mistake can shift things back to Trump - the most obvious possible event is a run of bad economic news.
 
superrific said:
Yeah, so I'm wary of "the data is still trailing" behind narratives in politics. It's basically the position of everyone whose theories are unsupported by data. Sometimes the data trailing behind story is accurate, so I'm not going to say that you're wrong. I'm simply going to say that it's not persuasive to me.

Reproductive rights issues favor Dems for sure. That's a different question from whether reproductive rights ballot amendments favor Dems.
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I'll be back in Nov with some data for you.
 
Polls won't mean much until about September 15 after the pundits have explained the debate to the naifs.
 
Igs149 said:
Agree I see more variance in support for Kamala given Trump is a far more known quality. And Trump will go as down low as can be imagined (or is beyond imagination).

But by no means is Kamala in’s a position where merely avoiding a major mistake is sufficient to win this election.

She’s reset the election and made it winnable. But she needs to pick up vote share across multiple demographics to win this election. So she has to not merely avoid a major mistake, but also net out gains in multiple voter groups between now and election day. And, she / the Democratic party cannot afford to lose the benefit of renewed Democratic enthusiasm or surging registrations. Once again, that’s not merely a matter of avoiding a mistake. There is an incredible amount of work to be done.
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I'm happy for the campaign to keep attacking it as though they're in a close race. Given the registration numbers I've seen, combined with the polling aggregates, I just don't think it's actually that close anymore.

But what they won't do this time is make the same mistake that Hillary and the DNC made -- shift budget over to House and Senate races, and slow campaign trail stops in key states and regions. If Hillary hadn't coasted and instead had acted like she was in a close race, we would've never been in this mess in the first place. Comey notwithstanding, she got outworked in the home stretch of that race.

Harris won't. In fact, he's the one who has been inexplicably coasting, relatively.
 
Icky Mettle said:
I really hate the electoral college game. Such a stupid concept.
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It reminds me of the character “Uncle Dub,” in Doug Marlette’s “Kudzu” comic strip. Uncle Dub was considered the last swing voter in the country……whoever Uncle Dub voted for won the presidency each election; so, the national media was all over the town of Kudzu trying to learn who Uncle Dub was voting for.
 
rodoheel said:
I think that's a little optimistic. I think all available data suggests the race is very tight and is likely to remain tight. And I think more than just a Kamala mistake can shift things back to Trump - the most obvious possible event is a run of bad economic news.
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Hezbollah v. Israel war also likely loses Harris the election.

“Progressives” are the wild card in this election - they aren’t voting for Trump; but, they might not vote to “show up” the Democrats.
 
duluoz said:
I'm happy for the campaign to keep attacking it as though they're in a close race. Given the registration numbers I've seen, combined with the polling aggregates, I just don't think it's actually that close anymore.

But what they won't do this time is make the same mistake that Hillary and the DNC made -- shift budget over to House and Senate races, and slow campaign trail stops in key states and regions. If Hillary hadn't coasted and instead had acted like she was in a close race, we would've never been in this mess in the first place. Comey notwithstanding, she got outworked in the home stretch of that race.

Harris won't. In fact, he's the one who has been inexplicably coasting, relatively.
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His internal polling likely shows that the more visible he his, the more he loses support.

I doubt his “staff” has to work hard to get him to golf rather than campaign.
 
Igs149 said:
Agree I see more variance in support for Kamala given Trump is a far more known quality. And Trump will go as down low as can be imagined (or is beyond imagination).

But by no means is Kamala in’s a position where merely avoiding a major mistake is sufficient to win this election.

She’s reset the election and made it winnable. But she needs to pick up vote share across multiple demographics to win this election. So she has to not merely avoid a major mistake, but also net out gains in multiple voter groups between now and election day. And, she / the Democratic party cannot afford to lose the benefit of renewed Democratic enthusiasm or surging registrations. Once again, that’s not merely a matter of avoiding a mistake. There is an incredible amount of work to be done.
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Agree to disagree to a point.

Kamala didn't make this winnable, this game never wasn't "winnable." Kamala is Kendall Marshall. This was a game that was -12 Dems and was 84-80 Dems midway in the 2nd half with a broken down PG who was turning the ball over and making bad decisions against a poorer team.

This reminds me of what the team felt when Larry Drew left the team and Kendall was given the keys. We knew we needed a change and seemingly the coach was staying status quo. Once Drew left, Kendall came in and the mojo instantly changed. We weren't getting pummeled with Drew in there, but we weren't nearly as good either and Kendall made us the contender we thought we would be. That doesn't mean we don't need to finish games and we win by just walking out there, but the team was always better, but they are WAY better with Kendall at the helm.

With Drew, we win this game by a bit, with an outside chance of losing. With Kendall, we can of course lose based on when he entered the game, but we more probably win and we even more probably win beyond the spread.
 
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