rodoheel
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Of the current "swing states," this is how I would rank them with respect to my confidence that Harris carries them:
1. Wisconsin - feel pretty confident here
2. Michigan - you could flip this with Wisconsin and I wouldn't argue
3. Arizona - not sure this aligns with the data but I think Kari Lake is going to lose by several points and be a big anchor on Trump here
4. Pennsylvania - the likely tipping point state; I'm really nervous about the polling
5. Georgia - only four letters that matter here: G-O-T-V. If Dems can get their urban voters to the polls (and get their votes in over all the likely Republican vote-suppressing shenanigans) they can win here.
6. Nevada - see my post above, I think this one is trending away from Dems in a macro sense
7. NC - I'll believe it when I see it
1. Wisconsin - feel pretty confident here
2. Michigan - you could flip this with Wisconsin and I wouldn't argue
3. Arizona - not sure this aligns with the data but I think Kari Lake is going to lose by several points and be a big anchor on Trump here
4. Pennsylvania - the likely tipping point state; I'm really nervous about the polling
5. Georgia - only four letters that matter here: G-O-T-V. If Dems can get their urban voters to the polls (and get their votes in over all the likely Republican vote-suppressing shenanigans) they can win here.
6. Nevada - see my post above, I think this one is trending away from Dems in a macro sense
7. NC - I'll believe it when I see it