CCM won by 2 points in 2016 and less than half a point in 2022. Also, incumbent Dems lost the Governor’s race and Lt Governor’s race (mostly due to COVID restrictions) and the GOP took some other spots that were open but formerly Democratic. There has been a slow red shift in Nevada and polling suggests that drift continues.
I don't think this is a correct analysis:
1. 2022 was a midterm election. It was supposed to be closer. And indeed the GOP took the majority of votes cast for the House (even excluding one-candidate races). So CCM's margin of half a point in 2022 doesn't seem like an underperformance relative to 2016. It was a different environment. Also, Dems won 3 of 4 house seats in 2022.
2. True, the GOP won the governor's race. This was no anomaly -- Sisolak was Nevada's only Democratic governor this century. Prior to 2022, the GOP had won 6 of the previous 6 gubernatorial elections.
3. Prior to 2018, the Dems had controlled both Senate seats in NV for a decade in the 1990s, and before that you have to go back to the early 1970s. The Dems have now won three straight Senate races, which is the most since they won 5 straight with Reid and Bryan.
4. At the presidential level, Dems have won NV four straight elections. Before that, the GOP won NV in 8 of the 10 presidential elections, with only Bill winning between LBJ and Obama. The margin in 2020 was about what it was in 2016 (correcting for national environment), maybe slightly better. True, neither HRC nor Biden approached Obama's 2012 performance, but that might have been an outlier.
IOW I'm not seeing any red shift here. I've thought of Nevada as trending slowly blue. At most, I think, you could say that Nevada is about 50/50 and the recent Dem dominance is more blip than a new reality -- meaning we'd expect the GOP to start winning some federal races at some point.