2024 Political Polls

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SnoopRob said:
The biggest impediment to changing the EC is that it would take an constitutional amendment and 40% of the country knows they benefit from the EC.

If I’m a Pub who knows that 2 of our 3 POTUS wins (out of 8 elections) since 1990 came from winning the EC while losing the popular vote, why would I want to change the system even if it means that my vote and the vote of my state has little individual impact?
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yea
Not in my life
 
quakerdevil said:
This is why we need to focus on getting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact passed
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The NPVIC has the exact same issue. There's a reason why every state where it has become law is either a blue or blue-purple state.

Nowhere where Pubs can stop the popular vote determining the winner of the presidential election is this going to happen.
 
SnoopRob said:
The NPVIC has the exact same issue. There's a reason why every state where it has become law is either a blue or blue-purple state.

Nowhere where Pubs can stop the popular vote determining the winner of the presidential election is this going to happen.
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It's all about Texas

If Texas goes the way of new Mexico, pubs will have to pick their poison
 
aGDevil2k said:
It's all about Texas

If Texas goes the way of new Mexico, pubs will have to pick their poison
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If Texas goes the way of New Mexico, the NPVIC wouldn’t be necessary barring any other major realignment.

But, IMHO, Texas is pretty far from becoming New Mexico.
 
While none of us know what will happen over the next 8 weeks, I feel like the only way Pubs might cut ties with Trump is if Harris wins by a larger EC margin than Biden AND states like TX, FL & OH have much smaller win margins than 2020.
 
RockyMtnHoo said:
While none of us know what will happen over the next 8 weeks, I feel like the only way Pubs might cut ties with Trump is if Harris wins by a larger EC margin than Biden AND states like TX, FL & OH have much smaller win margins than 2020.
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If Trump loses, I don't expect that Pubs will cut ties with him.

My hunch is that he'll attempt to move to a kingmaker role where both candidates and major legislation have to get his approval before Pubs can support them/it (which he's already been doing, especially with Pub candidates, but more recently with legislation like the immigration/border bill).

I do think that if he loses again, it will be easier for some Pubs to marginalize him a bit. He's old enough that it's hard to imagine that he'll run for POTUS again in 2028. And losing 2 out of 3 races for the WH - especially combined with other Pub loses from 2018 onward outside of POTUS - will take a lot of the shine off of him. The bigger question is who is able to take over the mantle of party leader. Trump is not going to want to give that up, so it'll be interesting what person or persons are able to take on actual leadership roles outside of being a proxy for Trump.

Of course, the first step in all of this is for him to lose again. Let's hope we get to see the rest.
 
SnoopRob said:
The biggest impediment to changing the EC is that it would take an constitutional amendment and 40% of the country knows they benefit from the EC.

If I’m a Pub who knows that 2 of our 3 POTUS wins (out of 8 elections) since 1990 came from winning the EC while losing the popular vote, why would I want to change the system even if it means that my vote and the vote of my state has little individual impact?
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It would wash out in one election cycle or less. Again, there is no law preventing Pubs from winning the popular vote. A big part of the Pubs' national voter deficit is CA -- but that's in part because they don't even try in CA. In 2016, HRC's margin of victory in national votes cast was less than her margin in CA, where she won 61%. If the Pubs could get that down to 55% -- again, by trying! -- that would shave 2 million votes or so off the HRC victory margin and it would have been a nailbiter.

And the Dems win NY with 60%, again because the Pubs don't even try. If the Pubs could get that number to 55%, they would have won in 2016 and 2020 would have been really close.

I think the bigger obstacle is that people think it can't be done. I used to have this discussion all the time with the policy folks when I was in law school. I would say, "maybe X should be the policy" and they would respond dismissively, "politically unrealistic." Well, fine, sure -- it looks that way now. But it will always be politically unrealistic if you refuse to give it any thought because it's politically unrealistic.
 
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