2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
  • Start date Start date
  • Replies: 6K
  • Views: 183K
  • Politics 


So you look it at, and at Cohns explanation, and they are basically saying that enthusiasm for Harris is tailing off "in the last few weeks since the DNC" (it's literally been two).

And as others say, these models don't capture new voters at all... New voters aren't likely, in their minds, until they actually vote. Trump got his folks out. Time to see what's new out there....

And R+3? Ok
 
Based upon Trump's rally yesterday, it seems that he has refined a winning platform:

Eliminate the Department of Education
Imprison his political opponents
Foment a Civil War if he loses the election
 
heelinhell said:
Based upon Trump's rally yesterday, it seems that he has refined a winning platform:

Eliminate the Department of Education
Imprison his political opponents
Foment a Civil War if he loses the election
Click to expand...
“Bloody” deportation of immigrants
 
BurtoniumAD said:
I do not think Obama 08 is unreasonable.l
Click to expand...
While I love the enthusiasm, I think this is looking through very blue colored glasses.

Harris is working through a headwind of 4 years of inflation. Obama had the benefit of a massively unpopular incumbent and then an economic collapse under his R predecessor immediately prior to the election. Atop being a generationally strong politician.

Folks vote their wallet.

Harris has a chance to use this debate to capture hesitant Dems and independents and grab back some momentum. But make no mistake. If she wins - it will be likely be atop an absolutely razor thin win in PA that will be too close to call on election night.

Biden won the national popular vote by 4.5 points and headed into election day with an 8%(ish) lead in national polls and 5% (ish) leads in many swing states.

Kamala has never even touched a 4.5% plus polling advantage. While Biden ultimately finished with a comfortable EC margin, it was across multiple super close states that took days to sort out and which, as of now, Kamala will not be able to duplicate.

Fantasizing Kamala has a hidden 2/3% in support is difficult to support. We know Trump has at least that.

Good money is on Trump right now. But perhaps…perhaps Kamala can finish strong and bump turnout. But make no mistake - she is the underdog here.
 
Last edited:
Igs149 said:
While I love the enthusiasm, I think this is looking through very blue colored glasses.

Harris is working through a headwind of 4 years of inflation. Obama had the benefit of a massively unpopular incumbent and then an economic collapse under his R predecessor immediately prior to the election. Atop being a generationally strong politician.

Folks vote their wallet.

Harris has a chance to use this debate to capture hesitant Dems and independents and grab back some momentum. But make no mistake. If she wins - it will be likely be atop an absolutely razor thin win in PA that will be too close to call on election night.

Biden won the national popular vote by 4.5 points and headed into election day with an 8%(ish) lead in national polls and 5% (ish) leads in many swing states.

Kamala has never even touched a 4.5% plus polling advantage. While Biden ultimately finished with a comfortable EC margin, it was across multiple super close states that took days to sort out and which, as of now, Kamala will not be able to duplicate.

Fantasizing Kamala has a hidden 2/3% in support is difficult to support. We know Trump has at least that.

Good money is on Trump right now. But perhaps…perhaps Kamala can finish strong and bump turnout. But make no mistake - she is the underdog here.
Click to expand...
We don’t know Trump has that at all. You’re assuming polling methodology hasn’t changed since 2020. It’s certainly possible that will prove to be the case, but it’s far more likely the variance between polling and final results will be quite a bit different this time.
 
nycfan said:
Gift link to NYT cross-tabs: Toplines: September 2024 Times/Siena Poll of Registered Voters Nationwide

This may be the most critical one buried in there:

IMG_2743.jpeg
Click to expand...
So we can assume that all Trump voters wanted a major change from Biden. Among Kamala supporters, it's about 13% for major change, 32% for minor change, 3% for no change.

Seems about right. 13% never Trumpers. 32% Dems who like Biden and Kamala. "No change" is such a bullshit option. Nobody is going to say, "no change." That implies that the country is perfect. I suspect that if you asked that question in a 2012 poll, you'd get similar results. Maybe 5% off of Major Change, distributed mostly to Minor Change and No Change would have still come in at 5% or less. I also think that if you asked this question in 2020, most MAGA would say Minor Change.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top