It's a good thing that the ballot is secret ... at least for now.No we don't know at all that trump has that
This isn't 2016 anymore. If anything, the quiet voters support Harris... Too nervous to put out signs because of the insanity of MAGAs
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It's a good thing that the ballot is secret ... at least for now.No we don't know at all that trump has that
This isn't 2016 anymore. If anything, the quiet voters support Harris... Too nervous to put out signs because of the insanity of MAGAs
I don't believe she's the underdog. I'm fine with her campaigning like she's the underdog, but I don't believe she is. And you're making an awful lot of assumptions on this hidden Trump element that's most likely already been baked into the new modelling.While I love the enthusiasm, I think this is looking through very blue colored glasses.
Harris is working through a headwind of 4 years of inflation. Obama had the benefit of a massively unpopular incumbent and then an economic collapse under his R predecessor immediately prior to the election. Atop being a generationally strong politician.
Folks vote their wallet.
Harris has a chance to use this debate to capture hesitant Dems and independents and grab back some momentum. But make no mistake. If she wins - it will be likely be atop an absolutely razor thin win in PA that will be too close to call on election night.
Biden won the national popular vote by 4.5 points and headed into election day with an 8%(ish) lead in national polls and 5% (ish) leads in many swing states.
Kamala has never even touched a 4.5% plus polling advantage. While Biden ultimately finished with a comfortable EC margin, it was across multiple super close states that took days to sort out and which, as of now, Kamala will not be able to duplicate.
Fantasizing Kamala has a hidden 2/3% in support is difficult to support. We know Trump has at least that.
Good money is on Trump right now. But perhaps…perhaps Kamala can finish strong and bump turnout. But make no mistake - she is the underdog here.
Respectfully. We are all making assumptions. As the polls relation to the actual vote turnout is functionally prognostication.I don't believe she's the underdog. I'm fine with her campaigning like she's the underdog, but I don't believe she is. And you're making an awful lot of assumptions on this hidden Trump element that's most likely already been baked into the new modelling.
Why? Wasn’t this the same argument 2016 to 2020? Harris has either small or vanishly small polling leads in key blue wall states.We don’t know Trump has that at all. You’re assuming polling methodology hasn’t changed since 2020. It’s certainly possible that will prove to be the case, but it’s far more likely the variance between polling and final results will be quite a bit different this time.
Lots of angry young men, but a very unreliable voting bloc still.Take it from a young man in that demographic, there are a lot of angry young men under 30 who are going to vote for Trump. And of lot of their girlfriends and wives have been radicalized by the same garbage that they consume.
This is a good summary of how polling is continuing to evolve.Why? Wasn’t this the same argument 2016 to 2020? Harris has either small or vanishly small polling leads in key blue wall states.
I don’t mean to be an ass. Because I am not a statistician.
How have the polls variance to actual results been solved? Can anyone answer that with specificity. Until then, I’ll continue to assume that polls consistently underpoll Trump support. Because they have in 2 consecutive elections.
Why isn’t that a much more rational assumption than the idea “they’ve been fixed” without a single piece of information on how they have been fixed.
Also the MAGA celebration of the NYT poll is really interesting. They are celebrating like it's all over
Also the MAGA celebration of the NYT poll is really interesting. They are celebrating like it's all over