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2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
  • Start date Start date
  • Replies: 6K
  • Views: 182K
  • Politics 
Calheel said:
Those must be city proper numbers, no? I would think metro vs. metro would be the more relevant stat, as the city suburbs are voting blue now.
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Yes and that's true but the hollowing out of the cities themselves still has a monster effect as the cities are huge Democratic wipeouts and suburbs tilt blue but not by anywhere near the same margins.

Since 1950
St. Louis metro +1.2M, city -555K
Detroit metro +1.6M, city -1.2M
Cleveland metro +400K, city -542K
Cincinnati metro +1M, city -192K
Pittsburgh metro +57K, city -373K
Milwaukee metro +560K, city -166K
Buffalo metro +77K, city -302K
 
HeelInTheOzarks said:
Yes and that's true but the hollowing out of the cities themselves still has a monster effect as the cities are huge Democratic wipeouts and suburbs tilt blue but not by anywhere near the same margins.

Since 1950
St. Louis metro +1.2M, city -555K
Detroit metro +1.6M, city -1.2M
Cleveland metro +400K, city -542K
Cincinnati metro +1M, city -192K
Pittsburgh metro +57K, city -373K
Milwaukee metro +560K, city -166K
Buffalo metro +77K, city -302K
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A bunch of that Cincinnati metro is in Kentucky. The largest city in Ohio is Columbus
 
Mulberry Heel said:
Basically he's gone on several rants in recent years about how woke far left political correctness has ruined comedy and there have been no great sitcoms since the 90s because of it. And you can't really do stand-up comedy at college campuses because students are too easily offended, even though plenty of comedians still do the college comedy circuit. Basically everything (and especially comedy) was better back in the day when he was younger and you could say offensive things about various groups of people and individuals and still get a laugh.
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Same thing all the other lame-ass, washed up, no-longer-funny guys say these days.
 
I personally think their likely voter models are all going to miss the composition of the electorate this year because they think it will be like 2016
 


So you look it at, and at Cohns explanation, and they are basically saying that enthusiasm for Harris is tailing off "in the last few weeks since the DNC" (it's literally been two).

And as others say, these models don't capture new voters at all... New voters aren't likely, in their minds, until they actually vote. Trump got his folks out. Time to see what's new out there....

And R+3? Ok
 
Based upon Trump's rally yesterday, it seems that he has refined a winning platform:

Eliminate the Department of Education
Imprison his political opponents
Foment a Civil War if he loses the election
 
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