2024 Political Polls

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“…
Here’s when you can expect more reliable polls:

  • Online polls from outfits like Morning Consult and YouGov will be out first. While these are decent polls, they typically don’t show a lot of movement from poll to poll.
  • Traditional pollsters usually take 3 or 4 days and then another day or two to finalize before releasing the numbers. That means it’ll be Sunday or Monday before we see any of those polls.
  • By the middle of next week we’ll begin to see some quality state polls that we can compare to the national polling averages to see if the debate changed anything.
At that point the debate will be old news.

How much of a bounce should Kamala Harris expect? Nate Silver notes Mitt Romney got a bounce of around 4 percentage points after his debate win against Barack Obama in 2012. And Donald Trump got roughly 2 percentage points following his win against Joe Biden in June. …”

politicalwire.com

Waiting for the Post-Debate Polls?

The first polls conducted fully after this week's presidential debate should start trickling in soon. But these aren't the polls to pay much attention to if you want to know if the debate changed the trajectory of the race.Here's when you can expect more reliable polls: Online polls from ou
politicalwire.com politicalwire.com
 
mpaer said:
Do you think there is a chance ?
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absolutely. the pre-debate Quinnipiac poll had kamala up 3 points in NC.

poll.qu.edu

Swing State Poll 2024: North Carolina: Harris vs. Trump Too Close To Call, Georgia: Trump Has Slight Edge In Tight Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; NC Governor's Race: Stein Leads Robinson 51% - 41% | Quinnipiac University Poll

"With 32 Electoral votes to offer between them, North Carolina and Georgia loom large among the potential pathways to the presidency and neither state offers a clear-cut favorite," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.
poll.qu.edu poll.qu.edu
 
nycfan said:
“…
Here’s when you can expect more reliable polls:

  • Online polls from outfits like Morning Consult and YouGov will be out first. While these are decent polls, they typically don’t show a lot of movement from poll to poll.
  • Traditional pollsters usually take 3 or 4 days and then another day or two to finalize before releasing the numbers. That means it’ll be Sunday or Monday before we see any of those polls.
  • By the middle of next week we’ll begin to see some quality state polls that we can compare to the national polling averages to see if the debate changed anything.
At that point the debate will be old news.

How much of a bounce should Kamala Harris expect? Nate Silver notes Mitt Romney got a bounce of around 4 percentage points after his debate win against Barack Obama in 2012. And Donald Trump got roughly 2 percentage points following his win against Joe Biden in June. …”

politicalwire.com

Waiting for the Post-Debate Polls?

The first polls conducted fully after this week's presidential debate should start trickling in soon. But these aren't the polls to pay much attention to if you want to know if the debate changed the trajectory of the race.Here's when you can expect more reliable polls: Online polls from ou
politicalwire.com politicalwire.com
Click to expand...
I think the max bounce here is probably 1.5 or so. The electorate is almost set at this point. But 1 or 1.5 would make a huge difference.
 
centerforpolitics.org

Polling Error in 2016-2020: Look Out for Wisconsin - Sabato's Crystal Ball

Final polling did generally overstate Democrats in both the 2016 and 2020 elections in these states, with Wisconsin standing out. Keep that in mind as polling shows Kamala Harris holding up a little bit better in the Badger State than elsewhere.
centerforpolitics.org centerforpolitics.org

"...To be clear, we have no idea whether the polls will be biased consistently one way or the other in 2024.

Maybe Trump will be understated again: if so, he is almost certainly going to win the election given how close the polls are now.

Maybe Harris will be understated: if so, she is in a great position to win given that she appears to already lead in enough states to win 270 electoral votes, albeit barely.

Or there might be little bias either way, or inconsistent bias depending on the state, in which case this election will be very hard to confidently predict based on the current numbers. Polling error is not necessarily consistent from year to year—while polls understated Trump in 2016 and 2020, the longer-term history of polling errors is a bit more mixed, per this helpful chart from the Pew Research Center based on American Association for Public Opinion Research data.


Our best guess is that because Trump’s polling position is better than 2016 and 2020, it’s likelier that he’s at least not being as underestimated as much as he was in previous elections, if he is being underestimated at all.

For one thing, other indicators do not really suggest that we’re in the midst of an electoral environment that is much stronger for Republicans than the past two elections (those indicators include special elections in 2023 and 2024 and the recent Washington state top-two primary).

While Democrats have now nominated three different opponents against Donald Trump, Trump himself will be on the ballot for a third straight time. It just doesn’t seem likely to us that he will do markedly better than he did in either 2016 or 2020, which is what would happen if the polls were biased against him again.

The third installment of the Trump trilogy will likely look a fair amount like the first two installments as opposed to being dramatically different; this is why we’ve long expected a close and competitive election, with only the last few weeks of Joe Biden’s candidacy really making us seriously consider the possibility of Trump doing substantially better than his previous presidential runs. The close polls suggest a close election: That seems realistic.

However, we also are on guard for subtler versions of the polling error we saw in 2016 and 2020. Again, Harris doing better in Wisconsin than she is doing in Michigan and Pennsylvania is something that raises our eyebrows, given actual recent results and the more pronounced Wisconsin polling error in 2016 and 2020. We also are suspicious of Harris’s better polling position in North Carolina than Georgia; note that the polling was generally closer to the mark in the latter than the former in both 2016 and 2020. ..."

[Lots of data in the linked article]
 
uncjhodges said:
I think the “shy” Trump voter is a thing of the past. Every trump voter I know is very loud and obnoxious about it. Much more to have a shy Dem voter, particularly in areas like NC and GA imo
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Turnout. The morning after we're going to be talking about which demographics turned out relative to which didn't (as strongly).

Whatever (and how much) aggregate polling error will be shown, will be based on the ability or failure of the polling models to have correctly anticipated the turnout rates of the respective demographic groups.

At least that's my uninformed opinion.
 
Ddseddse said:
Turnout. The morning after we're going to be talking about which demographics turned out relative to which didn't (as strongly).

Whatever (and how much) aggregate polling error will be shown, will be based on the ability or failure of the polling models to have correctly anticipated the turnout rates of the respective demographic groups.

At least that's my uninformed opinion.
Click to expand...
I share your opinion :cool:
 
MOD NOTE - DUE TO MY OWN ERROR, I merged the 2024 Political Ads and 2024 Political Polls threads (had intended to merge the two political ads threads). Keeping this as political polling (the ads thread was way shorter and we can keep using the other one).

Sorry, no idea how I clicked the wrong box.
 
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