2024 Pre-Election Political Polls | POLL - Trump would have had 7 point lead over Biden

[aGDevil2k]

AKA: we are all worried about how likely voter models are projecting the electorate and dont know what the answer will be (duh)

 

[CFordUNC]

 

[TarHeelGrad]

I will continue to worry until after the election is over. But this is like the Heels being up 4 against dook, with the ball. It's going to take a heckuva performance from dook, and some bad plays from UNC, to lose the game.

Dems appear to be the one galvanizing new voters. The issue here is the numbers.
Dems appear competitive across several states, including ones that Pubs won last election (i.e., North Carolina).
Stock market and economy are doing well. Yes, it could always be better. But with rate cuts imminent, that is a good thing.
Who is more likely to alienate potential voters, Trump or Harris? I'm going with the former.

If you could get an honest answer from the people running Trump's campaign, I bet virtually every one of them would admit that they would rather be Kamala Harris now, as opposed to Donald Trump.

 

[WBroylesH]

I will continue to worry until after the election is over. But this is like the Heels being up 4 against dook, with the ball. It's going to take a heckuva performance from dook, and some bad plays from UNC, to lose the game.

Dems appear to be the one galvanizing new voters. The issue here is the numbers.
Dems appear competitive across several states, including ones that Pubs won last election (i.e., North Carolina).
Stock market and economy are doing well. Yes, it could always be better. But with rate cuts imminent, that is a good thing.
Who is more likely to alienate potential voters, Trump or Harris? I'm going with the former.

If you could get an honest answer from the people running Trump's campaign, I bet virtually every one of them would admit that they would rather be Kamala Harris now, as opposed to Donald Trump.

This is a good analogy except we've all seen dook make up those four points in the blink of an eye.

 

[nycfan]

 

[aGDevil2k]

This is a good analogy except we've all seen dook make up those four points in the blink of an eye.

Because we pay the refs

 

[CFordUNC]

Because we pay the refs

Ain't nothing wrong with that. As a great philosopher once mused, if you ain't cheating, you ain't trying!

 

[superrific]

Note on Nate's model. Those state-by-state probabilities look weird, right? How can Trump have a 87% chance of winning the election if he wins NC, but Kamala has a 90% chance of winning if she wins PA? What if she wins PA and Trump wins NC, as in 2020?

The answer, I think, is correlation. Those numbers suggest that splitting PA and NC is unlikely. If Trump wins PA, it means he's having a great night and he probably wins NC too. If Harris wins NC, she's having a great night and she wins PA also.

Still, the correlation between PA and NC seems odd to me. Uh, oh -- I'm using my eyeballs to judge the model! Exactly what I've been saying I shouldn't do. and I shouldn't. But those numbers imply that PA and NC are quite likely to go the same way (I could figure out the probability of that based on that data, but I'm rusty with my Bayes and it would take me longer than it's worth), which is weird considering that they almost never have in the past. I think they have only gone the same way in 16 and 08, and 08 was a landslide so it doesn't really count (just like 84 doesn't count, given that Reagan won everywhere). Of course, the rejoinder is "how often have the polls in both states looked almost identical" and well, that's why we have a model I suppose. Still.

 

[Bigs23]

Because we pay the refs

Many refs were scared of k. I don’t think Schyerface is getting the same treatment.

 

[CFordUNC]

 

[CFordUNC]

 

[Milk and Cookies]

Enthusiasm more important than polling

 

[theel4life]

Kamala wins North Carolina and it’s a wrap.

 

[mpaer]

Kamala wins North Carolina and it’s a wrap.

Do you think there is a chance ?

 

[theel4life]

Do you think there is a chance ?

 

[aGDevil2k]

Enthusiasm more important than polling

Ten years ago if you would have told me I would love hearing from Matthew Dowd, Nichole Wallace, and even like Tara Setmayer, I would have called you an idiot

 

[Zoo_View]

Do you think there is a chance ?

No.

Not in NC.

Not in 2024 Georgia. It’s not just racism; it’s misogyny.

If Harris wins, it’ll be in PA, WI, and MI……and racism and misogyny will have their say in those states.

This will be a TIGHT race.

 

[nycfan]

“…
Here’s when you can expect more reliable polls:

• Online polls from outfits like Morning Consult and YouGov will be out first. While these are decent polls, they typically don’t show a lot of movement from poll to poll.
• Traditional pollsters usually take 3 or 4 days and then another day or two to finalize before releasing the numbers. That means it’ll be Sunday or Monday before we see any of those polls.
• By the middle of next week we’ll begin to see some quality state polls that we can compare to the national polling averages to see if the debate changed anything.

At that point the debate will be old news.

How much of a bounce should Kamala Harris expect? Nate Silver notes Mitt Romney got a bounce of around 4 percentage points after his debate win against Barack Obama in 2012. And Donald Trump got roughly 2 percentage points following his win against Joe Biden in June. …”

Waiting for the Post-Debate Polls?

The first polls conducted fully after this week's presidential debate should start trickling in soon. But these aren't the polls to pay much attention to if you want to know if the debate changed the

politicalwire.com

 

[4thgenheel]

Do you think there is a chance ?

absolutely. the pre-debate Quinnipiac poll had kamala up 3 points in NC.

Swing State Poll 2024: North Carolina: Harris vs. Trump Too Close To Call, Georgia: Trump Has Slight Edge In Tight Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; NC Governor's Race: Stein Leads Robinson 51% - 41% | Quinnipiac University Poll

"With 32 Electoral votes to offer between them, North Carolina and Georgia loom large among the potential pathways to the presidency and neither state offers a clear-cut favorite," said Quinnipiac University Polling Analyst Tim Malloy.

poll.qu.edu

 

[lawtig02]

“…
Here’s when you can expect more reliable polls:

• Online polls from outfits like Morning Consult and YouGov will be out first. While these are decent polls, they typically don’t show a lot of movement from poll to poll.
• Traditional pollsters usually take 3 or 4 days and then another day or two to finalize before releasing the numbers. That means it’ll be Sunday or Monday before we see any of those polls.
• By the middle of next week we’ll begin to see some quality state polls that we can compare to the national polling averages to see if the debate changed anything.

At that point the debate will be old news.

How much of a bounce should Kamala Harris expect? Nate Silver notes Mitt Romney got a bounce of around 4 percentage points after his debate win against Barack Obama in 2012. And Donald Trump got roughly 2 percentage points following his win against Joe Biden in June. …”

Waiting for the Post-Debate Polls?

The first polls conducted fully after this week's presidential debate should start trickling in soon. But these aren't the polls to pay much attention to if you want to know if the debate changed the

politicalwire.com

I think the max bounce here is probably 1.5 or so. The electorate is almost set at this point. But 1 or 1.5 would make a huge difference.