2024 Presidential Election | 42 Days to Election Day

[superrific]

I kinda wonder about an equitable estoppel argument - selectively asking to be on certain ballots and off others seems incongruous.

There are other plaintiffs in the NY action. Not that it matters.

The residency requirement for presidential elections is a bit fishy -- but it's also arguably required by the Constitution, since after all, the VP and Pres candidates have to be from different states. And that's indeed one reason, I suspect, that Kennedy is trying to run as a NY resident. Shanahan is a CA resident, which is what Kennedy would be but for that residence.

I think he would have had a better chance if he had sought an injunction against the residency requirement in the spring. He didn't. So now he's facing a situation where he gathered signatures *based on a lie* and now wants the residency requirement deemed unconstitutional. OK, but he still lied on his petitions. At this point, the state would be fully justified -- in my view -- to invalidate his petitions based on that fact. That's certainly how it's done in other states.

 

[SnoopRob]

Apparently the Nebraska gambit is off. The guy the Pubs needed to flip did not flip. He announced today that he's voting no.

FWIW he's a former Dem who is term-limited and has his eyes set on being mayor of Omaha. I suspect he decided that he would be unable to win that race if he voted to screw that district. Also, he probably hates Trump, and also he's doing the right thing.

My understanding is that the first actual deadline of any kind is Oct 7th, when the state starts early voting, and that's only under a "don't change the rules once voting starts" ethical guideline. And that there's really nothing stopping them from changing it any time between now and election day.

So I won't be comfortable that Nebraska Pubs won't pull this off until we get to election night and the law is unchanged.

 

[superrific]

My understanding is that the first actual deadline of any kind is Oct 7th, when the state starts early voting, and that's only under a "don't change the rules once voting starts" ethical guideline. And that there's really nothing stopping them from changing it any time between now and election day.

So I won't be comfortable that Nebraska Pubs won't pull this off until we get to election night and the law is unchanged.

Guy sounded pretty definitive that he's not going for it. The legislature isn't in session. The governor said he would call a special session if they had the votes to defeat a filibuster, which they don't have.

Again, this is a guy who was a Dem until he got censured by the Dems in April (WHY???). He wants to be mayor of Omaha. The current mayor, a Pub, does not support changing the EV. He's term limited. If he votes to change the EV, his political career is done.

 

[IllegalMotion9999]

The tie scenario doesn't work like that. After 12th Am, pres and vice pres are chosen separately. For Harris and Vance to end up together, it would require the Dems to hold the Senate, which is unlikely in a scenario of Trump ekeing out a tie.

NOTE: Re-reading the 12th Am demonstrates a possible way around the Nebraska situation. The quorum for the House vote is 2/3. If the blue state delegations don't show up, then the House can't choose and VP Harris will become acting president. It's unclear what would happen if the Pub Reps from a blue state tried to show up and cast votes for that state. Presumably the blue states could pass laws stating that their delegations cannot vote in a way differently from how their electors voted.

I wouldn't bet my life on that ploy working. I probably wouldn't bet $100. But once we get into that uncharted territory, lots of things can happen

Just want to point out that the House elects the President and the Senate elects the VP in the event of an electoral tie. So it does work like that. If there is an unlikely electoral tie, the Senate would elect Vance and there is a part of me that can see enough Repubs holding out on Trump that Harris would somehow win in the House.

 

[superrific]

Just want to point out that the House elects the President and the Senate elects the VP in the event of an electoral tie. So it does work like that. If there is an unlikely electoral tie, the Senate would elect Vance and there is a part of me that can see enough Repubs holding out on Trump that Harris would somehow win in the House.

I just can't imagine a scenario in which Pubs would dump Trump and keep Vance. Vance is even less popular than Trump. Plus, it would prob take more than just a few Pubs holding out on Trump in the House because the voting is by state.

Technically it is possible but I think we're talking powerball lottery odds.

 

[SnoopRob]

Guy sounded pretty definitive that he's not going for it. The legislature isn't in session. The governor said he would call a special session if they had the votes to defeat a filibuster, which they don't have.

Again, this is a guy who was a Dem until he got censured by the Dems in April (WHY???). He wants to be mayor of Omaha. The current mayor, a Pub, does not support changing the EV. He's term limited. If he votes to change the EV, his political career is done.

And he's trying out life as a Republican in Nebraska, I would imagine that by not supporting a change to Nebraska's EC apportionment he's putting his career on the line.

It seems he's in a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation, but given that he's thrown his lot in with the Pubs I would imagine that he'll be under a lot of pressure between now and whatever internal deadline the Nebraska Pubs set for the change.

It's possible he's sincere and that he really will hold out, but I won't feel confident until it's too late for the change to be enacted.

 

[superrific]

And he's trying out life as a Republican in Nebraska, I would imagine that by not supporting a change to Nebraska's EC apportionment he's putting his career on the line.

It seems he's in a "damned if you do, damned if you don't" situation, but given that he's thrown his lot in with the Pubs I would imagine that he'll be under a lot of pressure between now and whatever internal deadline the Nebraska Pubs set for the change.

It's possible he's sincere and that he really will hold out, but I won't feel confident until it's too late for the change to be enacted.

The current mayor of Omaha has the same position that he does on the EV. So if he's really eyeing that position, this is the right position for him to take.

I hear you on the "won't be confident" part, but they've now pushed twice and they have been unsuccessful twice. At some point, they will stop pushing. They will need his vote on other things as well. He could flip back to Dem.

The guy also proposed that they put the matter for a constitutional amendment next year. That strikes me as a sign of sincerity. Basically, he's saying, let's decide what we want to do and put it in the constitution so the legislature can't fuck around with it in the future whenever it sees possible short-term electoral gain.

I have trouble imagining that this guy was a Dem for most of his life, and doesn't have a visceral hatred for Trump.

 

[nycfan]

 

[nycfan]

 

[Zoo_View]

Guy sounded pretty definitive that he's not going for it. The legislature isn't in session. The governor said he would call a special session if they had the votes to defeat a filibuster, which they don't have.

Again, this is a guy who was a Dem until he got censured by the Dems in April (WHY???). He wants to be mayor of Omaha. The current mayor, a Pub, does not support changing the EV. He's term limited. If he votes to change the EV, his political career is done.

The Democrats censured him because he voted for an anti-abortion bill that would have totally banned abortion (in 2016, when he first ran for the legislature, he says he was upfront about opposing abortion) and he supported a bill that would make illegal gender surgery for minors.

He ran against an incumbent Republican in 2016 and won 70% of the vote; he won re-election in 2020 with 63% of the vote.

 

[BillyL]

Trump's Haitian immigrant comments stir outrage in Florida​

"Our best revenge is to go out and get the votes out,” said Ruiz-Nicolas, adding that Trump's comments have fueled new efforts to achieve that goal.

Florida is a longshot for Democrats. Trump won the state twice, including a 3-percentage-point victory in 2020. And the state has turned more Republican since then with the landslide reelection of Gov. Ron DeSantis in 2022.

But it was considered a battleground before that. And recent polls show Trump with margins of between 2 and 6 percentage points over Vice President Kamala Harris. That and an abortion rights ballot initiative that could turn out liberal voters have given Democrats glimmers of hope that they can at least be competitive and perhaps swing some down ballot races.

The state's Haitian American population, estimated at about 500,000, is the nation's largest and votes predominantly Democratic.

Haitian immigrants concentrated in south Florida, who came fleeing economic and political instability, have risen to fill numerous seats in city and county commissions, the state legislature and Congress. Haitian doctors and nurses fill hospitals in Miami, Fort Lauderdale and the surrounding suburbs. Many newer immigrants take back-breaking jobs that native-born Floridians turn down.


More:Trump's Haitian immigrant comments stir outrage in Florida

 

[Macksbrownies]

Trump's Haitian immigrant comments stir outrage in Florida​

"Our best revenge is to go out and get the votes out,” said Ruiz-Nicolas, adding that Trump's comments have fueled new efforts to achieve that goal.

Florida is a longshot for Democrats. Trump won the state twice, including a 3-percentage-point victory in 2020. And the state has turned more Republican since then with the landslide reelection of Gov. Ron DeSantis in 2022.

But it was considered a battleground before that. And recent polls show Trump with margins of between 2 and 6 percentage points over Vice President Kamala Harris. That and an abortion rights ballot initiative that could turn out liberal voters have given Democrats glimmers of hope that they can at least be competitive and perhaps swing some down ballot races.

The state's Haitian American population, estimated at about 500,000, is the nation's largest and votes predominantly Democratic.

Haitian immigrants concentrated in south Florida, who came fleeing economic and political instability, have risen to fill numerous seats in city and county commissions, the state legislature and Congress. Haitian doctors and nurses fill hospitals in Miami, Fort Lauderdale and the surrounding suburbs. Many newer immigrants take back-breaking jobs that native-born Floridians turn down.


More:Trump's Haitian immigrant comments stir outrage in Florida

You done fucked up D-Donald

 

[Mulberry Heel]

Trump's Haitian immigrant comments stir outrage in Florida​

"Our best revenge is to go out and get the votes out,” said Ruiz-Nicolas, adding that Trump's comments have fueled new efforts to achieve that goal.

Florida is a longshot for Democrats. Trump won the state twice, including a 3-percentage-point victory in 2020. And the state has turned more Republican since then with the landslide reelection of Gov. Ron DeSantis in 2022.

But it was considered a battleground before that. And recent polls show Trump with margins of between 2 and 6 percentage points over Vice President Kamala Harris. That and an abortion rights ballot initiative that could turn out liberal voters have given Democrats glimmers of hope that they can at least be competitive and perhaps swing some down ballot races.

The state's Haitian American population, estimated at about 500,000, is the nation's largest and votes predominantly Democratic.

Haitian immigrants concentrated in south Florida, who came fleeing economic and political instability, have risen to fill numerous seats in city and county commissions, the state legislature and Congress. Haitian doctors and nurses fill hospitals in Miami, Fort Lauderdale and the surrounding suburbs. Many newer immigrants take back-breaking jobs that native-born Floridians turn down.


More: Trump's Haitian immigrant comments stir outrage in Florida

I doubt it will be enough to sink Trump, although he is likely to win Florida by a smaller margin than he did in 2020, but maybe the Haitian vote might help sink Rick Scott, who does have a formidable Democratic opponent this time. I doubt it will happen, but Scott did win only by a razor-thin margin six years ago.

 

[aGDevil2k]

Honestly we have no idea. I wouldn't be shocked if she won Florida. It's not top of my list but it's not like Texas flipping

 

[maxcrowder]

The Democrats censured him because he voted for an anti-abortion bill that would have totally banned abortion (in 2016, when he first ran for the legislature, he says he was upfront about opposing abortion) and he supported a bill that would make illegal gender surgery for minors.

He ran against an incumbent Republican in 2016 and won 70% of the vote; he won re-election in 2020 with 63% of the vote.

so he's a weathervane in a red state.

 

[BillyL]

I doubt it will be enough to sink Trump, although he is likely to win Florida by a smaller margin than he did in 2020, but maybe the Haitian vote might help sink Rick Scott, who does have a formidable Democratic opponent this time. I doubt it will happen, but Scott did win only by a razor-thin margin six years ago.

I'm much like you, this isn't a big enough grievance that the Haitian Americans will overturn the expected FLA result, and they do for the greatest part already vote democratic, but, there is now an added energy for them to go out and vote . .

 

[Zoo_View]

so he's a weathervane in a red state.

Not sure what you mean by “weathervane.” Do you mean he goes as the wind blows?

He strikes me as being a stalwart, principled officeholder.

He also was a career firefighter and was either “a” or “the” fire chief in Omaha for years. He has some popularity and good will in the area.

 

[Igs149]

I just can't imagine a scenario in which Pubs would dump Trump and keep Vance. Vance is even less popular than Trump. Plus, it would prob take more than just a few Pubs holding out on Trump in the House because the voting is by state.

Technically it is possible but I think we're talking powerball lottery odds.

Powerball lottery odds is even being a bit kind. There is absolutely no universe (in this universe) where Trump loses the vote in the House in that scenario. It is a flat absolute zero chance.

Trump is the Republican Party. The Republican Party is Trump.

 

[lawtig02]

I'm much like you, this isn't a big enough grievance that the Haitian Americans will overturn the expected FLA result, and they do for the greatest part already vote democratic, but, there is now an added energy for them to go out and vote . .

I’m wondering if the current Trump and Vance line has an electoral impact on immigrant communities beyond Haitians. They’re overtly saying they think some immigrants who are here legally are not actually legal, and should therefore be deported. That’s a position that doesn’t logically confine itself to the Haitians here under special status.

 

[nycfan]

I vote early because it is more convenient and I like to bank my vote as early as I can just because.

But I had never stopped to consider how it might help turnout ground games when supporters vote early: