2025 & 2026 Elections | Adams drops out in NYC

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GOP holds on to a deep red mayoral seat (though by AL standards, a Trump win +18 here in 2024 is practically purple).
 
Mundial said:
Super please explain if you can how the Dems would control the house if every state that can do so gerrymanders.
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There’s a chance with gerrymandering that one state party could overreach in a given state.

The party that has control of a state might create too many districts that “lean” their way instead of being locks their way; especially in a blue or red wave election.

So, in North Carolina, we have 14 congressional districts that are heavily gerrymandered, giving the GOP 10 solid red districts and the Democrats 4 solid blue districts. If the GOP tries to go 11-3 or 12-2 red districts, it might only win 7-9 in a blue wave.

If Democrats get greedy in MD and try to take the one GOP district, they might lose 2-3 seats total instead of only one.
 
nycfan said:
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Not surprising. The rural areas outside NYC are VERY red and there aren’t really any big cities anywhere else in the state. The second largest city in NY (Buffalo) is less populous than the 4th largest city in NC (Durham). Only four cities outside of NYC have populations greater than 100k. NC has 10 cities with 100k+. Of those 10 in NC, 6 have more than 200k, 3 have more than 300k, 2 have more than 400k, and 1 has more than 900k.
 
Icky Mettle said:
Not surprising. The rural areas outside NYC are VERY red and there aren’t really any big cities anywhere else in the state. The second largest city in NY (Buffalo) is less populous than the 4th largest city in NC (Durham). Only four cities outside of NYC have populations greater than 100k. NC has 10 cities with 100k+. Of those 10 in NC, 6 have more than 200k, 3 have more than 300k, 2 have more than 400k, and 1 has more than 900k.
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Most of those cities used to be bigger.
 
Icky Mettle said:
Not surprising. The rural areas outside NYC are VERY red and there aren’t really any big cities anywhere else in the state. The second largest city in NY (Buffalo) is less populous than the 4th largest city in NC (Durham). Only four cities outside of NYC have populations greater than 100k. NC has 10 cities with 100k+. Of those 10 in NC, 6 have more than 200k, 3 have more than 300k, 2 have more than 400k, and 1 has more than 900k.
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Buffalo metro 1.1 million
Durham metro 500k
 
Remember that everything they accuse Democrats of doing, THEY are ACTUALLY doing. Maybe (possibly? probably?) there's nothing to this but give it a listen and share your thoughts. I'm particularly interested in hearing from anyone with statistics or computer science experience. Is this possible or plausible? It certainly could explain why Trump's vote percentage went up everywhere (blue and red precincts). Of course, it could just be because he ran against a black woman.

 
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aGDevil2k said:
What's the area you are including in Buffalo to get that? Because Buffalo doesn't have a Wake County right next door with 1M people alone. TLDR - Durham Metro Area isnt a thing
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You don't count Bahama?

Wiki says Durham metro is 608k, and Buffalo metro is 1,125k. There is no doubt that the Buffalo area is bigger than the Durham area, but smaller than RTP area. Comparing cities by the technical city population is not very helpful, particularly when discussing the political import of a city. I mean San Francisco only has 825k, but that is because almost everyone lives outside the actual city.

en.wikipedia.org

Durham, North Carolina - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
en.wikipedia.org

Buffalo, New York - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
 
Calheel said:
You don't count Bahama?

Wiki says Durham metro is 608k, and Buffalo metro is 1,125k. There is no doubt that the Buffalo area is bigger than the Durham area, but smaller than RTP area. Comparing cities by the technical city population is not very helpful, particularly when discussing the political import of a city. I mean San Francisco only has 825k, but that is because almost everyone lives outside the actual city.

en.wikipedia.org

Durham, North Carolina - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
en.wikipedia.org

Buffalo, New York - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org en.wikipedia.org
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I do think considering the size of the cities based on population within city limits tells you something because it is within the cities where things are bluest. Generally speaking, once you go outside the city things get a little less blue and sometimes can get very red. Also keep in mind that metro areas also include rural areas, and not just densely populated areas. But obviously not every Metropolitan area is the same. Some are more extensions of the cities around which they are centered than others. The San Francisco metropolitan area is vastly different from the Buffalo metropolitan area. And wrt to NC, most of the towns outside of Charlotte in the Charlotte metropolitan area are night-and-day different from Charlotte culturally and politically.

The Syracuse (NY) metro area is bigger than the Durham metro area, but the Syracuse metro area consists of Syracuse, a city of about 150k, and a bunch of small towns and rural communities.

But the point I was making overall was that outside of NYC, NY doesn’t have a lot of cities that can make the number of urban blue votes outnumber the number of rural/small town red votes. On the other hand, NC, which is not even a blue state, has more cities that contribute high percentages of blue votes.
 
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Icky Mettle said:
I do think considering the size of the cities based on population within city limits tells you something because it is within the cities where things are bluest. Generally speaking, once you go outside the city things get a little less blue and sometimes can get very red. Also keep in mind that metro areas also include rural areas, and not just densely populated areas. But obviously not every Metropolitan area is the same. Some are more extensions of the cities around which they are centered than others. The San Francisco metropolitan area is vastly different from the Buffalo metropolitan area. And wrt to NC, most of the towns outside of Charlotte in the Charlotte metropolitan area are night-and-day different from Charlotte culturally and politically.

The Syracuse (NY) metro area is bigger than the Durham metro area, but the Syracuse metro area consists of Syracuse, a city of about 150k, and a bunch of small towns and rural communities.

But the point I was making overall was that outside of NYC, NY doesn’t have a lot of cities that can make the number of urban blue votes outnumber the number of rural/small town red votes. On the other hand, NC, which is not even a blue state, has more cities that contribute high percentages of blue votes.
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I view NC as a light blue state with all top Dem state holders. If not for gerrymandering and Pub iron grip on legislature as a result. it would be blue.
 
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