2025 & 2026 Elections | Adams drops out in NYC

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My theory isn't neutral but I can only speak for myself. My theory is that the tipping point of our society is passed. There isn't enough time left on the clock of this form of governance to do the kind of long range political building you are talking about. The nation is lost. The people are lost. We are well beyond a point where people would rather see it all burned down than come out of their ideological bunkers.

By the way, im not immune to that. I'm not saying that it's all Republicans at this point. Im saying that this nation is like a broken marriage where the spouses have beaten each other up so often and so ferociously that there will never be a reconciliation before there is a complete rupture.

Unfortunately that will mean lots of upheaval. Young people will maybe live to see a better time. Old people definitely will not.

You study the history of the early 20th century fervently. I applaud that but I say you likely are making the wrong comparisons to our political timeline. We aren't in 1944 or 1954 politically. We are in 1854 politically.
 
I appreciate this reply because I think you’re being more honest about the nature of your pushback, and that clarity helps.

To reiterate: I’m not claiming to have a master plan to solve racism. No one does. What I’m arguing is that the only thing that’s ever worked is organizing through shared material interest; not because it cures racism, but because it creates contact, contradiction, and stakes. I don’t expect a hospital town hall to turn a bigot into an ally. But I do believe that’s a better starting point than waiting for moral evolution on its own.

I don’t think that’s abstract. It’s what real politics has always looked like. You want concrete examples? Look at the Poor People’s Campaign in the South, where Black and white communities came together around shared material demands like housing, jobs, and healthcare. Look at Kansas voters defeating an abortion ban in a deep-red state by organizing across faith, class, and partisan lines. Look at the original CIO campaigns in the 1930s, where interracial union organizing succeeded even in segregated states because the focus was on the shop floor and the boss, not abstract moral unity. More recently, look at groups like Down Home North Carolina, which are doing deep listening and year-round canvassing in rural counties that most national Democrats have written off, talking about hospitals closing, wages stagnating, and how both parties have let people down. That’s what local, cross-racial organizing can look like. That’s what it has looked like.

You’ve said I sound like I have it all figured out. I think you’re mistaking a rhetorical and political strategy for arrogance. I have clarity about where power comes from, and it’s not donor strategy or elite messaging. It’s people. The problem isn’t that your objections are invalid. It’s that they always seem to function as reasons not to act. To delay. To wait for better conditions. But better conditions don’t just show up. They’re built.

The same tension shows up in many of my arguments with Rodo and Snoop. It devolves into them claiming they’re not advocating for abandonment while their entire posture implicitly leads to abondonment.

Yes, the old local institutions are gone. That’s not the end of the story. If the parties used to function because they were embedded, and they’ve lost that, then the only viable path forward is rebuilding from the ground up. If we don’t, we’re stuck managing decline and pretending the map is just what it is.

I get that your focus is 2025–2028. Mine includes that too but also 2030, 2032, 2034, 2036 and 2038. Because if no groundwork is laid now, there’s nothing to build on later. You may see my approach as speculative, but the current strategy is failing in real time, and that’s not speculation.

So, for me, this is about choosing to fight on the terrain where real political change has always happened: through contact, trust, and struggle. That’s what the left, in my estimation, has forgotten.
1. I should read Theda's book, or at least read plenty about it. I'm not familiar with the material she covers/history she unearths. You mentioned that in a later post, not in the above but regardless. . . .

2. You skipped over an important question, probably not intentionally but your last line makes it more potent. WHY has the left "forgotten" this? I mean, "the left" is full of smart people, and what's more, historians are well represented. Not to mention, as you say, the left hasn't given up on community level action since the 1960s. So there had to be a reason for the changed approach. It can't have been a hundred thousand academics and grad students just forgetting what worked.

Maybe it's better to say it like this: every jeremiad needs a motive force, or what we would today call a "villain." Indeed, you've talked about the need for narratives with clearly identified bad guys and good guys. Terrific. Who's the bad guy in your jeremiad? It seems to be the "donor class" and "consultants" etc. But they don't like the left and the left doesn't like them. How are they forcing the left to forget?

3. I understand your impatience with what you see as defeatism and perhaps a concomitant quietism. Part of that is the message board format, though, don't you think? I mean, when it all comes down to it, what we have in common is that we post anonymously on a message board forum. What else are we going to do but talk about shit endlessly? You could make a case that this forum is precisely the opposite of the type of organizing you think necessary. So regardless of the merits of your ideas, regardless of their content, isn't it predictable that the response will be something short of grabbing a pitchfork and running to the nearest civic society organization?

4. I was like you when I was in my 20s. That type of youthful energy and exuberance is important -- irreplaceable even. I don't think anyone here wants to make you into some disillusioned cynic, even if sometimes the rhetoric seems to imply otherwise.

We've just been burned too many times by the Mamdanis of the world. Or maybe I should say, the reaction to them. The GOP is trying to make him the face of the liberals for a reason -- he's exceedingly unpopular in various parts of the country, especially the ones we're talking about here. I haven't seen polling on that; let's just accept for now that he will be dismissed by millions based on superficial knowledge. That's undoubtedly true. Maybe it is only because we haven't been organizing or whatever, but right now, Mamdani is a problem. Not a major problem. Probably not even a minor one.

Your response, I would assume, is that Mamdani isn't a problem for NYC. It's just that local organizing won't necessarily produce the same results everywhere. Mamdani wouldn't be right for, say, Baton Rouge or Atlanta. That's why we have elections everywhere. The basic principle of meeting people where they are applies in cities and in the countryside. About that, you're surely right, if it's possible.

But we do live in an age of the internet, and one of the consequences has been that it allows people to get outraged by shit that doesn't remotely affect their lives. The Times had an article about Aurora, CO that I didn't read. The headline says that Trump's claims that Aurora was taken over by gangs wasn't entirely wrong, that it was complex. Let's just say that's true. My question: why would anyone fucking care about Aurora, CO? It affects nobody's life. It is not a harbinger of things to come, obviously. But people did care, just as they did about they/them and eating pets in Ohio.

Or trans participation in sports. Or migrant caravans. Or Jewish students at Harvard being harassed. This is the outrage machine.

5. And then finally: Is it possible that the success of the right-wing organization was that it was accompanied by all this phony outrage? I mean, take QAnon as an example. QAnon is probably a signature example of what Skocpol was talking about (though it might have post dated her book; I don't know when it was written). And it's been pretty damn successful considering what an utter load of bullshit it has always been. But to what extent does its organizational success depend on the energy created by Pizzagate and all the subsequent, more amplified and more unhinged bullshit? And is that something we can replicate.

I mean, do we need our own Marjorie Taylor Greenes? People who can go into a community, spout utter tripe and nonsense, but be accepted by the people there because they also cling bitterly to idiotic conspiracy theories. You might not have been around long enough to experience the "chain email" but everyone my age knows about it, and has probably been forwarded emails from family members that were forwarded to them and so on, with the most ridiculous claims being parroted as if they are evidently true. Do we need that?

Maybe we do. I'm not judging it. Meeting people where they are is not something I do well outside of the context of my atypical life experience, so I don't have anything to say in that regard. I just think it's anathema for liberals to MTG it up. We would be hard pressed to find engaged foot soldiers, so to speak.
 
Ha, I just asked ChatGPT to describe Skocpol's work in a thousand words and then another thousand for her critics and their reply.

The first answer was a virtual replica of Paine's posts, with the same language and all. I'm not saying that to criticize. Paine is obviously very influenced by her work, which is fine. Not a bad person to be influenced by. Everyone has their mentors, real or virtual. It was just amusing to me, in the same way that double takes can be amusing.

And no, Paine is not ChatGPT. He might use it to draft, but that's OK.
 
So let's assume the truth of Theda's thesis for now. Republicans started organizing post 2008 when Dems mostly stopped. There are a couple of possible explanations:

A. Stupidity or mistakes by Dems. I am more skeptical of these types of explanations when we are talking about a long period of time. But 15 years? Could happen. Maybe the Dems switched to digital too quickly, or took its volunteers for granted.

B. Donor Class pressure. I'm skeptical of this one, though the internet tells me that Theda has a slightly different explanation than "pressure." It's more like piecemeal, patchwork donations. GOP donors are typically fighting the same causes. Dem donors have pet issues: some want to make abortion accessible; others want to fight racism; others climate change, etc. And elections are when the causes can come together, but in the off years the groups sort of do their own things -- as they have to, because politics accomplishes so little.

This modified donor-thesis does ring true to me given my experience with (and knowledge of) NGO proliferation. We don't have to get into that on this thread. I'm just saying that the "fractured donor class" explanation seems better than the "donor class hates the left" narrative, which is partly true but exaggerated in my view.

Fine. Let me offer a few other thoughts. The considerations above are kind of optimistic. I see where Paine comes from: we can do that too! Just like they did. Mine are, well, less so. Shocking, I know, but worth talking about.

1. Is there a natural asymmetry between the parties' goals and how it might relate to organization? The left is trying to fight climate change; the right is trying to fight doing anything about climate change. The latter goal is far, far easier and thus it engenders more enthusiasm. The right can claim wins that the left can't. "Drill Baby Drill" is a huge win for the right. The Clean Power Plan or subsidies for renewables are not wins. They are incremental steps. There's no way we can be as enthusiastic given that our goals are so future shifted.

Or take race. The left's goal is to lessen structural racism. That's hard. We came up with one approach that we called DEI, and it was good but nobody thought it was the whole ballgame. It was like scoring a run in the first inning. Spreading DEI was not a major win.

But the right's goal is to just to kill progress. To them, ending DEI is a huge win (as we can see from the excesses Trump has taken in this vein), because again they just want to preserve the status quo. So when they kill DEI, it's invigorating. Protecting DEI is just a step for us.

2. So maybe an issue is that it's much easier for liberals to feel overwhelmed and discouraged. And that's especially a problem because we only control government in fits and starts. We had a working legislative majority in 2009 and 2010. Then we lost it. We had a majority again in 2021-22, but it wasn't a working majority and we weren't able to get more done. And the rest of the time, what the fuck are we supposed to be doing? We spend all that effort to build Obama's policies and Trump wipes them away in 6 months time.

In this narrative, the villain is the filibuster. Or one villain, at least. Another is the leftists who torpedoed Al Gore and to a lesser extent HRC. I mean, they aren't villains per se; they just played that role in 2000. I often think about an alternative history: what if Ralph Nader hadn't sucked up so many votes and Gore was elected?

Imagine Gore reacting to 9/11. He probably would have done pretty much the same thing in Afghanistan, but definitely not in Iraq. The military buildup that became necessary wouldn't have been. Also, we wouldn't have been fucked by the 2002 patriotic war jingoism that cost Dems a few seats and also burdened our candidates with having to both support and oppose the war. Clinton achieved a peace dividend, and while defense spending inched up during this term, it wasn't until W that it blew up again. And those lessons from 2002 have been haunting the party ever since. It's why we have no peaceniks in Congress any more. That and Kucinich's obnoxious media presence.

3. How do we fight these tendencies? Well, Greta sailed around the world which was pretty goddamn spectacular but not something we can expect from most people. How do we maintain our energy levels when our goals seem so out of reach, while the right's goals are so attainable because they lack any ambition. And killing programs doesn't leave a negative legacy. Sam Brownback fucked up Kansas' public finance and the GOP there had to answer for it for at least two election cycles. But killing EV mandates doesn't have the same effect. There's no "wow, that was fucked up" moment because there's no before and after. There's just the same.

This is a problem for me in particular. I find it really hard to maintain energy to fight, because what am I fighting for? I always say that we're not liberals because it's easy; we're liberals because it's hard. We don't give up when things become inconvenient. I believe that. But there's "hard" and then there's quixotic and our efforts seem too often to fall into the latter category because we are fighting problems that are so enormous.
 
But we do live in an age of the internet, and one of the consequences has been that it allows people to get outraged by shit that doesn't remotely affect their lives.
That cuts both ways. Mamdani got a lot of votes because of his views on Gaza - an issue that has exceedingly little to do with being the mayor of NYC.
 
That cuts both ways. Mamdani got a lot of votes because of his views on Gaza - an issue that has exceedingly little to do with being the mayor of NYC.
It does cut both ways, but again there is a structural asymmetry. Liberals care about issues like climate change and racism and health insurance, which almost by definition affects everyone and profoundly. One doesn't have to manufacture outrage at 100 degree temperatures in the Gulf of MEXICO.

There are some issues where the left gets easily distracted. Statues, for instance.
 
It does cut both ways, but again there is a structural asymmetry. Liberals care about issues like climate change and racism and health insurance, which almost by definition affects everyone and profoundly. One doesn't have to manufacture outrage at 100 degree temperatures in the Gulf of MEXICO.

There are some issues where the left gets easily distracted. Statues, for instance.
It is hard to see why/how Gaza affects the mayor of NYC. That is more about identity politics. People like the way he views the world and so they want somebody like him to run the city. Same when someone in bumfuck Idaho likes Trump’s views on Aurora, CO or Springfield, OH.
 
It is hard to see why/how Gaza affects the mayor of NYC. That is more about identity politics. People like the way he views the world and so they want somebody like him to run the city. Same when someone in bumfuck Idaho likes Trump’s views on Aurora, CO or Springfield, OH.
I know. I wasn't disagreeing with the take on the NYC mayor. I just think it's comparatively rarer for the reasons I stated.
 
It was about whether he’d back down when it counted. He didn’t, and that told people something about who he is.
It never counted. If your claim is all politics is identity politics, I think that's closer to being true than false.
 
Can you expand on this?
"When it counts" means when there is something riding on it. For instance, can Trump avoid chickening out on tariffs when it counts -- i.e. on the day the tariff is supposed to go into effect. Or "when it counts" like when Seal Team Six has a chance to kill bin Laden. Bush chickened out and Obama didn't.

Gaza never counts for the NYC mayor because the mayor has control over nothing that would affect that issue in any way. It's the opposite of something that counts.
 
It is hard to see why/how Gaza affects the mayor of NYC. That is more about identity politics. People like the way he views the world and so they want somebody like him to run the city. Same when someone in bumfuck Idaho likes Trump’s views on Aurora, CO or Springfield, OH.
You’ve encapsulated how Mamdani won the primary. Identity politics. It was a rejection of Cuomo (and Adams essentially), first and foremost… and embracing someone who views the world in a similar way. Which is all valid in ways, but let’s not pretend Mamdani’s promised policies hold water.

Before Mamdani’s name picked up momentum, conversations around town went like this:
“Who do you like for mayor?”
“I don’t know. But not Adams, and not Cuomo.”

So any heroic romanticizing about an organized uprising against the billionaire PAC machinery is incredibly overblown. Cuomo was an easy punching bag and deserving one, no matter how well funded. Mamdani capitalized on that and on identity politics and cherry-picked the win.

And the rest of us who remain unconvinced can at least say “well at least it’s not Adams or Cuomo…” So, yay?
 
Osborn might lose, sure, but the idea that he’ll be “decimated” everywhere outside Omaha and Lincoln just doesn’t match the data. He polled neck-and-neck with Ricketts statewide earlier this year. That’s not a blue mirage, it’s a sign that with organizing and a working-class message, even deep red states aren’t politically monolithic.

The goal in a state like Nebraska isn’t to win every rural county. It’s to narrow the margins, to lose 65–35 instead of 80–20, while running up the score in the urban centers. That’s how Democrats have won statewide in other red and purple states.

Again: if we treat places like Nebraska as unwinnable, we make it true. But Osborn’s numbers suggest there’s more open ground than people think. That’s exactly why his campaign matters.
1.4M out of 2M people in Nebraska live in the Omaha and Lincoln metro areas. Most of the rest are farms and empty space. There are some wild topographic formations in western Nebraska.

Populist campaigns have a chance, whether Dem, Indy or OG Pub.
 
You are right that I'm not familiar with the body of literature you're talking about. I am always interested to learn new things and will try to explore some of it in the future.

However, I still remain unconvinced by the overall thesis that Republicans do better with these sorts of "local institutions" than Democrats do through some sort of long-term plan to build infrastructure. You say this:

You also say people live increasingly online, but they still vote where they live. They still send their kids to a school board-run school. Their local hospital is still closing. Their water bill still goes up. The right knows this. That’s why they contest library boards and county commissions in places Democrats have long written off. Why don’t we?

And whether you mean to or not, you are attributing the right's success to some sort of intentional ground-up grassroots movement; some sort of grand design to contest local institutions that Democrats ignore. Again, I don't think this is really an accurate depiction of how things have worked. The right doesn't contest "library boards and county commissions, or school boards, or whatever else, to some greater extent than Democrats. Are there areas where no Democrat candidate runs for things like this because they (the local people, not national Dems) see it as a lost cause? Sure. But the inverse is true as well - there are urban neighborhoods where no Republicans contest these sort of local races either. That isn't some major strategic difference between the left and the right. And most people who run for these sorts of organizations are doing so on their own initiative, not because of some carefully and strategically cultivated "pipeline" created by Republicans.

Also, with respect to this:

Reducing this to “church picnics” isn’t serious engagement. Republicans invested in building community-level leadership pipelines. That’s what the Tea Party did. That’s what Moms for Liberty is doing now. That’s what Skocpol calls “organized disinformation,” a fusion of local leadership and national propaganda. Pastors echo Fox News. Gun shop owners hand out GOP flyers. It’s not either-or. It’s synergy. That synergy is missing on the Democratic side.

To be clear, I am not "reducing" anything to "church picnics" - that was a literal example that you gave that I was responding to. You talked about church picnics and rotary clubs as key to Republican relationship-building and coalition-building while accusing Dems of abandoning those things, which again I think is not really accurate. But as to the broader point, I'm not sure groups like Moms for Liberty and the Tea Party really stand for the proposition that local organizing is what's important. I don't see those groups as having bonded and spread via local grassroots, in-person organizing. They spread online and across the country. They are not a "fusion" of local leadership and national propaganda; they are simply showing that networking and relationship-building of that type isn't local anymore. I mean, obviously all of the people in those groups live somewhere, where they are physically present. But I don't think those groups are spreading their membership through, like, Thursday night gatherings at the local bar or country club or community center or whatever. They are doing so virtually and digitally. That's the world we live in now.

You say that I "rarely offer a forward strategy of my own" and it's a fair critique, though from my perspective your strategy of "organize locally and expand that to a national movement that is disconnected from and/or cuts out the current Dem political infrastructure (which you obviously dislike) via unspecified means" is not much more specific or fully formed than anything I've said. It is certainly easier to poke holes in someone else's ideas than to offer some of your own. But as far as a master plan, I certainly would not agree that this is my big-picture position:

local organizing is obsolete, rural outreach is mostly pointless, and we should focus on elite messaging and national vibes. If that’s your theory of change, say so. But don’t pretend it’s neutral

I do believe that trying to build local networks on the ground in rural areas should not be much of a focus at the present; I do believe it is pretty unlikely to bear any identifiable fruit in the short or medium-term, and is a poor investment given that rural areas are the most strongly conservative at the moment and that the rural population is such a small percentage of the population as a whole. I not think that organizing is obsolete, but I do think we need to recognize that today's "local institutions" are largely not going to be nearly as local or in-person as they were in the past. Even if we accept the thesis that you, and apparently some of that literature, has espoused - that the modern Republican media/political machine was built on tireless ground work through civic institutions in the 70s, 80s, and 90s that provided the foundation for what talk radio, Fox News, and then social media did in the last 25-30 years, even as those same civic institutions withered and died - I'm not convinced that the future lies in on-the-ground local organizing, other than maybe in the densest urban areas where population density is highest. (Those sorts of major urban areas are where things like "community mutual aid groups, housing coalitions, canvassing hubs, tenant unions, and labor locals" can possible be effective - not so much in suburban areas.) I think there needs to be more attention to competing with conservatives in digital spaces (podcasting, social media, whatever even newer "New Media" is coming next) with more approachable, less "intellectual-coded" messaging. I think the phrase "we need a liberal Joe Rogan" is overused - I don't think liberals need to be emulating the "political know-nothing, everyone doe their own research" format generally - but it's probably something closer to that than, say, Pod Save America. The left needs to forget about radio and cable news and political debate panels and start realizing that you have to blend politics and culture to get people (especially young people) to pay any attention to it now.

I also do not advocate for anything approaching "elite messaging" but I also think that leftists now leaning into an "anti-elite" formulation that seems to accept Republicans' framing that anyone who is highly educated is an "elite" is deeply problematic. I do not think the left should be steering away from a coalition built around the educated, and further undermining societal trust in supposed "elite" institutions like public health agencies and large public universities. What we need to do is find a way to push back on the narrative that the interests of college-educated people and those of the working class are opposed; indeed many working-class people today are college educated. The left needs to find a way to stand up for education and science and public institutions in a way that doesn't make working-class people or rural Americans feel entirely alienated. Of both sides of the political spectrum start trending towards an anti-intellectual know-nothing strain then we will be well and truly fucked in both the short term and the long term.

We've talked about the policies I think Dems should be advocating for at the state and national level, and I don't feel the need to re-hash most of that.

But I do honestly continue to believe that large-scale change is not going to be possible unless and until there is a true national crisis, and/or Republicans really badly screw everything up the way they did in the 1920s and the early 2000s. That does not mean I am advocating doing nothing until then. What we need to do until then is do our best to compete in the short-term in state and national elections and to advocate for the structural things that can help steer the government backed towards being more representative of the nation as a whole - congressional reform (elimination of the modern filibuster, etc), supreme court expansion, PR and DC statehood, etc - while expressing clear-eyed, principled messaging about why such things are necessary. But we can't do those things without winning the elections that are most immediately in front of us. One of the problems with a view like yours that seems far more focused on the long-term than the short-term is that if you ignore immediate elections in favor of trying to build a base for 30 years from now you give up a lot of erosion that takes decades to recover in the meantime. I fully understand why progressives didn't like Hillary Clinton or what she stood for or how she campaigned in 2016, and I would acknowledge many of those critiques as valid, but losing that presidential election in 2016 was perhaps the most consequential electoral loss in decades because what it meant for the Supreme Court specifically and the federal judiciary more broadly. We would not be sitting here talking about the lawless Supreme Court and the blows it has dealt to the left if we had simply understood how important it was to win the 2016 election, which probably would have smothered MAGA (or at least the Trumpist brand of MAGA) in the cradle. Instead we delivered the Federalist Society - another group with massive influence on our current situation, influence I I notice you don't acknowledge because it doesn't seem to fit in the idea that local organizing is what got Republicans where they are - one free Supreme Court seat that then turned into three, plus a staggering number of federal judgeships.
 
Thanks for clarifying. That’s a helpful window into how you’re defining political action.

I think this helps get to the heart of our disagreement. You’re defining “when it counts” as the moment when a politician has formal, institutional power over a decision. But a lot of voters, and organizers, see a different kind of test: when power isn’t on the line, and someone could stay silent, do they stand up anyway?
That "different kind of test" is exactly the opposite of "when it counts." Those were your words.

It would make you a lot more persuasive if you acknowledged counter-examples, complexity and uncertainty. You pay lip service to that but it doesn't appear to affect your thinking in any way. This is a case in point. Mamdani's support over Gaza is literally the exact opposite of what you say voters really care about. On one hand, they want government to materially improve their lives, per your materialist analysis, and for liberals to deliver on that promise. But now you're saying that they are voting purely symbolically on Gaza. You can't have it both ways.

I'm not interested in hearing more spin or hiding inconsistencies under vague and abstract language. I'm tired of you trying to spin everything that happens into support for your ideas. Maybe that's a good trait to have in politics, but on a message board it's tiring. Or at least it is to me.

I can't remember ever seeing you express sentiments like, "this is hard to explain," or "this issue is complex and I would need to study it more." I mean, you say that you don't claim to have all the answers, but really? I've never seen you say that you would need to study something more, or that you maybe don't know the details about something. You present these arguments as if they are fully formed and complete theories of the world. They are not. You can make it hard to engage. I don't know -- maybe I do something similar from time to time, though I also readily admit when I might not have a complete perspective on something.

To take just one example: I brought up Marcuse a couple of times. You clearly have not read Marcuse. It's OK. But instead of saying that, you just said that Marcuse is out of style (which might be true but is irrelevant to my point). That could be a valid excuse for why you haven't read his work. We have limited time in life. But you presented that as a way of impugning his validity. Oh, people don't read Marcuse any more because we've moved past that. Aside from being false, it's really fucking annoying.
 
And whether you mean to or not, you are attributing the right's success to some sort of intentional ground-up grassroots movement; some sort of grand design to contest local institutions that Democrats ignore. Again, I don't think this is really an accurate depiction of how things have worked. The right doesn't contest "library boards and county commissions, or school boards, or whatever else, to some greater extent than Democrats. Are there areas where no Democrat candidate runs for things like this because they (the local people, not national Dems) see it as a lost cause? Sure. But the inverse is true as well - there are urban neighborhoods where no Republicans contest these sort of local races either. That isn't some major strategic difference between the left and the right. And most people who run for these sorts of organizations are doing so on their own initiative, not because of some carefully and strategically cultivated "pipeline" created by Republicans.
Eh. How do you know that? Skocpol wrote a book describing how the right did all those things more than Dems. I have no idea if it's an accurate depiction, but I'd like to at least read the book (or read enough to evaluate it) before judging. I mean, maybe Dems have ignored local institutions. How would you know one way or the other based on experience?

You know I'm a stickler for people having a basis of knowledge for their claims. I don't think either of us have that basis to support your contentions here.
 
I fully understand why progressives didn't like Hillary Clinton or what she stood for or how she campaigned in 2016, and I would acknowledge many of those critiques as valid, but losing that presidential election in 2016 was perhaps the most consequential electoral loss in decades because what it meant for the Supreme Court specifically and the federal judiciary more broadly.
Again, I think there's an emotional component here that needs to be acknowledged. Quite apart from what Trump's election specifically did to the judiciary as a whole, the 2016 loss was a gut punch for liberals in legal fields. Literally my whole conscious life we've been under the thumb of an increasingly reactionary, unhinged and comically reductive Supreme Court. In 2016, God finally cut us a break. We were going to FINALLY have a majority that could at least staunch the bleeding.

Instead, Scalia's death gave us Trump. The evil within him found a better host and became more powerful -- kind of like that movie with Denzel where he smokes the poison cigarette.

I don't think anyone who is 27 years old can really understand the incredible disappointment and anger over that. For me, teaching at a law school, it was particularly crushing. And if that person isn't going to take seriously our experience here, if he isn't going to address that liberals feel every bit as betrayed by the left as vice versa, then he's not going to be persuasive. He's going to get a lot of pushback -- ironically from the same source he has been lauding. Meeting US where we are requires greater humility than he has shown.

I'm trying to overlook some of that, because he's young and energetic and because I'm tired of internecine warfare. We've got to stop fighting with each other. I say that as someone who has mixed it up with him as much as anyone. I'm trying to do better. But I'm argumentative, always have been, and I'm not likely to change that much at this stage of my life. I play the cards dealt to me as well as I can. . .
 
1.4M out of 2M people in Nebraska live in the Omaha and Lincoln metro areas. Most of the rest are farms and empty space. There are some wild topographic formations in western Nebraska.

Populist campaigns have a chance, whether Dem, Indy or OG Pub.
To be clear, you cant really talk about "metro areas" as it pertains to politics in Nebraska. I said Osborn would dominate Omaha and Lincoln. And I mean literally inside the core of those cities. Even a mile outside of downtown Omaha is a political and cultural polar opposite of the city itself. Hell, 15% of the Omaha Metro population isn't even in Nebraska...its across the river in Council Bluffs. You can stay in a hotel in Council Bluffs and walk across the footbridge to the College World Series. In that 20 minute walk, you've gone from 85% Trump voters to 60% Harris voters. It's that dramatic.

Lincoln is a lot like Chapel hill. Ain't nobody gonna claim that west of Chapel Hill is much influenced by Chapel Hill itself politcally.
 
A bit premature. Adams or Cuomo could still win in November.
I don’t see it. Certainly not Adams. Right now, word on the street is that his best hope is to get Curtis Sliwa (yes, that old dude from the Guardian Angels) to step aside so he can slide into the republican slot on the ballot.

But Sliwa ain’t budging, so Adams and Cuomo are currently calling for the other to “do what’s best for NYC” and drop out. But both their egos are way too massive to ever do that. So they’ll end up splitting votes and Mamdani will win.

Cuomo might pose some challenge otherwise. Mamdani didn’t do well with the black vote, and Cuomo would have better luck with those voters turning out for the general. Plus there are still a lot of more casual (less informed) non-primary type voters who think highly of Cuomo for his covid leadership (nursing home disasters, sexual scandals notwithstanding). So there’s some chance for him. But thankfully I don’t see it.
 
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