2025 & 2026 Elections | Adams drops out in NYC

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CFordUNC said:
Yeah, short of actual revelation of the Epstein files that show Trump with a dead girl or a live boy on footage, I don't actually expect some blue tidal wave or anything like that next year in the midterms. I know it's a veritable political eternity away from being election season but right now it feels like the Democrats are totally rudderless and are entirely reliant upon hoping and praying that the GOP continues to shoot itself in the dick (a safe bet, to be fair). I think the Democrats can win a slim House majority and pick up a Senate seat if they're competent (NC) or two if they're lucky (Maine). Beyond that, hard to see any seismic shift in the current political environment. But I'm just a guy shooting the shit on the internet. I know nothing.
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I couldn't disagree more. The most likely outcome is a tidal wave. It doesn't really matter much if the Dems are rudderless. How would you describe the GOP in 2010? An organized juggernaut?

Midterm elections are almost always referenda on the current administration. Negative partisanship and outrage drives votes.
 
nycfan said:
California Democrats are charging ahead with an ambitious and potentially expensive plan to squeeze between five and seven more Democratic seats out of their congressional map.

The goal: To offset the Republican redistricting in Texas — and potentially elsewhere — and win the House majority next year.

punchbowl.news

7/17/25 ☀️ AM:

PRESENTED BY IN THIS EDITION House Dems are California dreamin’ Senate passes rescissions package. Now what? The Vault: Crypto’s Congress crashout Tech:
punchbowl.news punchbowl.news
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Unfortunate, but has to be done.

We can't live in a country in which the parties play by two different sets of rules.

Similar thing happened with Nebraska/Maine last year when the Republicans threatened to pull the Democratic electoral vote and Maine threatened to retaliate by pulling the Republican electoral vote -- so a detente was established.

If the Southern states continue to insist on massive gerrymandering, the coastal states must respond in kind to even things out. Unless and until there is a nonpartisan federal procedure for redistricting, the only way to preserve democracy is to abuse democracy in the individual states. Ultimately, this only leads to more and more partisanship in the House because the only thing that matters is the primary, not the general. But Republicans have forced the hand of democratic states.
 
superrific said:
I couldn't disagree more. The most likely outcome is a tidal wave. It doesn't really matter much if the Dems are rudderless. How would you describe the GOP in 2010? An organized juggernaut?

Midterm elections are almost always referenda on the current administration. Negative partisanship and outrage drives votes.
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Yeah great point. I am very likely overthinking.
 
Midterm elections usually favor the party out of power, and I still think the Democrats will do well in next year's elections. I'd be very surprised if they don't win back the House - they only need to gain about 5 seats, which is definitely possible even with gerrymandering. I also think they gain a seat or two in the Senate without winning control. Having said that, if the Democrats don't do well next year then Schumer and Jeffries and the rest of the Congressional Dem leadership needs to be gone, stat. No excuses not to do well given all of the opportunities that Trump & Company are giving them.
 
"Only 19% of registered voters approve of the way Democrats in Congress are handling their job. Even among Democratic voters, a majority (52%) disapprove of congressional Democrats while only 39% say they’re satisfied."

I think Luntz is trying to make a case that just doesn't matter. If I were asked if I approve of how Democrats are doing their job in Congress I would say no. But I think most of those being polled would still vote to limit Trump's congressional support now that they have seen how lawlessly he is acting.
 
farce© said:
"Only 19% of registered voters approve of the way Democrats in Congress are handling their job. Even among Democratic voters, a majority (52%) disapprove of congressional Democrats while only 39% say they’re satisfied."

I think Luntz is trying to make a case that just doesn't matter. If I were asked if I approve of how Democrats are doing their job in Congress I would say no. But I think most of those being polled would still vote to limit Trump's congressional support now that they have seen how lawlessly he is acting.
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Yep. There’s a difference between disapproving of how members of a party are doing their job and not voting for members of that party/voting for members of the opposing party.
 
Icky Mettle said:
Yep. There’s a difference between disapproving of how members of a party are doing their job and not voting for members of that party/voting for members of the opposing party.
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Agree. I disapprove of how they are doing because they are not pushing back effectively against Trump. I sure as hell won't vote for a Trump sycophant, er, I mean, a Pub.
 
CFordUNC said:
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See why I am not worried about 2026 NC Senate race? Tillis won in 2020 by less than two points IIRC in an environment that was Dem +2. That was running as an incumbent, against Cal Cunningham. Now make the environment Dem +9 and put Coop on the ballot instead of Cunningham. Candidate quality makes a couple of points of difference, so say add two to Coop because he's a great candidate instead of a mediocre one like Cal.

So if this poll is accurate, then Coop would start with a lead of +7. I mean, it's one poll. Maybe the true level is lower -- but the poll would have to be way off for it to be a toss-up, and keep in mind that this poll is generally consistent with others like presidential approval, so it's not likely to be a huge outlier.

Now factor in that Dems do better among likely voters and midterm voters.

My analysis of the race right now is as follows: someone who knew nothing about the state would give Coop a 4 or 5 point cushion. That's the cushion. The actual results would be more like Coop +7, +8. So even if you want to discount for NC and the Dems' long history of disappointment, that discount factor would have to be HUGE.

Maybe if things start getting better, we'll see this gap close but what are the odds of things getting better for the GOP in this cycle? They're even underwater on immigration now.
 
CFordUNC said:
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Not surprised at all. The opposition party has historically done well in midterm elections since the Second World War, with relatively few exceptions. All these polls showing that people are unhappy with Congressional Democrats doesn't take into account what many here have already said - much of the unhappiness and frustration is coming from Democrats themselves who wish the party leadership was more vigorously opposing Trump, but that certainly doesn't mean that these people are going to vote Republican next year. If they vote they're likely to vote straight ticket Democratic, no matter how unhappy they might be with certain leaders within the party right now. The issue is getting them motivated to vote, but Trump and his fellow pubs seem to be solving that possible issue very nicely all by themselves. And that's not even including the anger of independent voters, as this poll illustrates.
 
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CFordUNC said:


*Obligatory “take this with a huge grain of salt, it’s a long way until next November, this seems like hopium and wishcasting etc. etc. etc.* but this is at least *a* promising data point for now.
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It would be a major upset for the Dems to gain less than 20 seats, imo.
 
In very local election news BJ Barham the lead singer of American Aquarium is running for a seat on the Wendell town council

American Aquarium frontman BJ Barham runs for local office in Wendell MSN
 
Only town in America that is named for someone that bears their middle name.
 
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