2025 & 2026 Elections | Adams drops out in NYC

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Calheel said:
Not talking Senate, which is largely irrelevant (except for Sup Ct nominations) if you have the House. Unless you have the presidency, one chamber is practically as good as two chambers.
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The Senate doesn't have to be irrelevant. It has self-imposed its own irrelevancy through the modern version of the filibuster, among other things. And if Dems take the Senate back, they can hopefully unwind some of those things. (Will they? I'm skeptical, but it's at least possible.)

If you have majorities in the Senate and the House, you can, at the very least, force the President to publicly veto bills and pay the political cost for doing so. That is, if you reform the filibuster and other Senate rules sufficiently that a simple majority can actually pass substantive bills, as the Founders intended.
 
Given the lack of truly competitive House seats nationwide, I doubt we see a blue tsunami in congressional races.

In the Senate, Democrats have incumbents running in Oregon, Colorado, New Mexico, Georgia, Virginia, Delaware, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts. All look likely Democratic holds EXCEPT Georgia; which at best is a toss-up for the Democrats. In Jon Ossoff’s case and favor, he’s an aggressive, good campaigner who will have a large war chest.

Democratic incumbents are retiring in Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan, and New Hampshire. The first two are likely holds. In New Hampshire, it looks like all Granite State Democrats are rallying behind 1st District Congressman Chris Pappas. It also appears that a slew of Republicans want a shot at it; including former US Senator Scott Brown, who was elected in Massachusetts. I’d guess NH leans Democratic. Michigan has to be labeled a toss-up.

Republican incumbents are running in AK, ID, MT, WY, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, IA, AR, LA, MS, FL, SC, TN, WV, OH, and ME. Anyone see a likely Democratic win in those states? I don’t.
  • Maine - people keep saying Susan Collins is vulnerable. I’ll believe it when I see it. At best, Maine is a toss-up.
  • Nebraska - Maybe Independent Dan Osborn in Nebraska has a longshot at it. No Democrat is running.
  • Iowa - Joni Ernst won in 2020 with 51.8% of the vote.
  • Kansas - Roger Marshall won his first term with 53.2%. The Democrats do occupy the Governor and Lt. Governor offices. Both of those seats are having elections in 2026.
  • I don’t see a Democrat challenging in any other incumbent-held seat.
Three Republicans are retiring - McConnell in Kentucky, Tillis in North Carolina, and Tuberville in Alabama (he’s running for Governor).

Roy Cooper might win North Carolina. It’ll be tight. The Republicans hold Kentucky and Alabama.

So, if the Democrats hold ALL of their incumbent seats (that’s a big if) and they win NC and ME, the Senate flips. If Georgia or Michigan or NH goes red, the Democrats aren’t winning the Senate…
 


Mentioning Chemtrails in public used to be a sign of potentially serious mental illness — the kind of thing coming up at local county commission meetings where everyone else sat quietly waiting for the buzzer on the mike time and creating a neutral zone around the speaker, maybe with the cop that night scooting over to that side of the room just in case, if they returned to their seat instead of leaving.
 
Zoo_View said:
Given the lack of truly competitive House seats nationwide, I doubt we see a blue tsunami in congressional races.

In the Senate, Democrats have incumbents running in Oregon, Colorado, New Mexico, Georgia, Virginia, Delaware, New Jersey, Rhode Island, and Massachusetts. All look likely Democratic holds EXCEPT Georgia; which at best is a toss-up for the Democrats. In Jon Ossoff’s case and favor, he’s an aggressive, good campaigner who will have a large war chest.

Democratic incumbents are retiring in Minnesota, Illinois, Michigan, and New Hampshire. The first two are likely holds. In New Hampshire, it looks like all Granite State Democrats are rallying behind 1st District Congressman Chris Pappas. It also appears that a slew of Republicans want a shot at it; including former US Senator Scott Brown, who was elected in Massachusetts. I’d guess NH leans Democratic. Michigan has to be labeled a toss-up.

Republican incumbents are running in AK, ID, MT, WY, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, IA, AR, LA, MS, FL, SC, TN, WV, OH, and ME. Anyone see a likely Democratic win in those states? I don’t.
  • Maine - people keep saying Susan Collins is vulnerable. I’ll believe it when I see it. At best, Maine is a toss-up.
  • Nebraska - Maybe Independent Dan Osborn in Nebraska has a longshot at it. No Democrat is running.
  • Iowa - Joni Ernst won in 2020 with 51.8% of the vote.
  • Kansas - Roger Marshall won his first term with 53.2%. The Democrats do occupy the Governor and Lt. Governor offices. Both of those seats are having elections in 2026.
  • I don’t see a Democrat challenging in any other incumbent-held seat.
Three Republicans are retiring - McConnell in Kentucky, Tillis in North Carolina, and Tuberville in Alabama (he’s running for Governor).

Roy Cooper might win North Carolina. It’ll be tight. The Republicans hold Kentucky and Alabama.

So, if the Democrats hold ALL of their incumbent seats (that’s a big if) and they win NC and ME, the Senate flips. If Georgia or Michigan or NH goes red, the Democrats aren’t winning the Senate…
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This is not just not consistent with everything we know about mid terms. Mid terms are usually a referendum on the president. You have seen Trump's approval and it's going to get worse. In addition, the reason Dems overperformed in 22 is that we have the high turnout voters.

Cooper will really have to fuck up to lose NC and I doubt it's all that close. I don't know Maine politics to a fine detail, but if Maine is really in the recession that people report, Collins will get the boot. That's just how American politics works.

You're assuming that this environment is going to be neutral, for some reason. Think 2018 for a better comparison. Except that we're not going to lose Florida senate because we've lost it, and we will win in NC.

I think Ohio is up for a special election. Hopefully Sherrod Brown hops in, and if so, the race will be very close.
 
rodoheel said:
I hear you on the historical factor. I just think we're in a different election paradigm now than we were before; I think stuff that happened 10, 12, 14 years ago is becoming irrelevant, and candidly I would rather assume the worst than the best. And when you look at the Senate map for Dems, you can understand the reason for pessimism.
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I say the following based on what I think are sensible predictions about the political environment. Remember, Trump is already super unpopular and it's only getting worse from here.

NC: Likely Dem.
ME: Strong lean Dem
MI: Likely Dem
MN Likely Dem
GA: Lean Dem
IA: Lean Pub
TX: Toss up if Paxton is the candidate
OH: don't know.
 
nycfan said:


Mentioning Chemtrails in public used to be a sign of potentially serious mental illness — the kind of thing coming up at local county commission meetings where everyone else sat quietly waiting for the buzzer on the mike time and creating a neutral zone around the speaker, maybe with the cop that night scooting over to that side of the room just in case, if they returned to their seat instead of leaving.
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She could certainly just be mentally ill or simply playing to the loons that make up so much of MAGA Nation now, but I do wonder sometimes if she doesn't have some serious drug or drinking issues. Not that it excuses anything she does or says, but in some videos I've seen of her she just seems high as a kite sometimes.
 
mpaer said:
Sounds reasonable
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Democrats only need to pick up what - five seats? - to regain control, so even if the GOP re-gerrymanders some states their odds are still pretty good to retake the House, imo, especially if Democrats re-gerrymander some of their own blue states. Regaining a Senate majority is definitely much more of a long shot.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
Democrats only need to pick up what - five seats? - to regain control, so even if the GOP re-gerrymanders some states their odds are still pretty good to retake the House, imo, especially if Democrats re-gerrymander some of their own blue states. Regaining a Senate majority is definitely much more of a long shot.
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They just need three.
 
superrific said:
This is not just not consistent with everything we know about mid terms. Mid terms are usually a referendum on the president. You have seen Trump's approval and it's going to get worse. In addition, the reason Dems overperformed in 22 is that we have the high turnout voters.

Cooper will really have to fuck up to lose NC and I doubt it's all that close. I don't know Maine politics to a fine detail, but if Maine is really in the recession that people report, Collins will get the boot. That's just how American politics works.

You're assuming that this environment is going to be neutral, for some reason. Think 2018 for a better comparison. Except that we're not going to lose Florida senate because we've lost it, and we will win in NC.

I think Ohio is up for a special election. Hopefully Sherrod Brown hops in, and if so, the race will be very close.
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I’m not thinking the environment will be neutral. I’m thinking it’ll lean Democratic; it might be strongly Democratic.

I’m thinking the old days of a lot of toss-up House races is LONG GONE because of gerrymandering and tribalism and hyping cultural issues.

In terms of the Senate, we’ve gone tribal. The Democrats have a yeoman’s row to hoe…..Look at the map.

And, yes, I do know Maine politics better than you do. Get west of I-95 or west/northwest/north of US 1 and east of Mount Desert Isle, and you’re in areas akin to Alabama (no blacks and few browns; but, the racism is high). In Maine, it’s called “Inland.” The number of angry, begrudged white working class is a huge percentage of the state’s population. Now, add in the Catholic and fundamentalist populations……they’re virulently anti-abortion and LGBTQ rights. They might not like Susan Collins; but, she’ll back Trump when push comes to shove (see judicial nominees). Then you have the George H.W. Bush/Reagan/Romney Republicans AND Independents near the coast from the NH line to Acadia and they’ll disparage Trump and vote to lower their taxes (this group never votes for a Democrat). Also, no one comparable to Angus King is challenging Collins in 2026. It’s looking like 2020 when the unlikeable Sarah Gideon challenged Collins. And lost an impossible to lose race. Sarah was both Jewish and “from away.” Those didn’t help her.

Frank Church is not running and winning in Idaho. Ditto for George McGovern in South Dakota. Birch Bayh in Indiana. Jay Rockefeller in West Virginia. Tom Harkin in Iowa.

The Democrats have a finite set of Senate seats they can win…..they have a set of seats they will not win……List the rock-solid Democratic senate seats. List the rock-solid GOP seats. It’s ugly comparing the two lists.
 
Zoo_View said:
The Senate is 53 R - 47 D+I.

Where are the Democratic gains? Any Democratic losses in 2026?
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I think Cooper will win in NC although it will be close and maybe the Dems finally knock off Collins in Maine - the most vulnerable incumbent dem is Ossoff in Ga but he has raised a lot of money for his campaign and we have yet to see who the Republican candidate will be - I think best case scenario the Senate ends up 51-49 Republican majority
 
Zoo_View said:
I’m not thinking the environment will be neutral. I’m thinking it’ll lean Democratic; it might be strongly Democratic.

I’m thinking the old days of a lot of toss-up House races is LONG GONE because of gerrymandering and tribalism and hyping cultural issues.

In terms of the Senate, we’ve gone tribal. The Democrats have a yeoman’s row to hoe…..Look at the map.

And, yes, I do know Maine politics better than you do. In Maine, it’s called “Inland.”
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Every blue state has "an inland." Eastern Oregon, Washington and California are all like Maine in that regard. So is PA. NY has plenty of red areas. Despite that inland, Maine went for Kamala by seven points. Someone is voting blue there. And that was in a national environment that was about R +1. So Maine is more or less +7, +8, +9 compared to national, something like that. Or that's what it was in 2024.

If the national environment is strongly Democratic (say, +4 or more), then Susan Collins is facing an electorate that is roughly +11-+15 Dem. It's a midterm. GOP voters don't turn out as much in midterms. The economy in Maine is in the crapper almost entirely because of Trump. Susan Collins is going to outperform the average GOP candidate by 12-13 points? Really?

Is there any wonder why Susan Collins hasn't even committed to running yet? or so. You think Inland and Susan Collins
 
GoHeelsweeeehoooo said:
I think best case scenario the Senate ends up 51-49 Republican majority
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This is not remotely the best case scenario. It's more like an average case scenario. Could the Dems fail to win ME and NC both? Sure. Could they lose another seat? It's possible. But those are worst case scenarios.

The best case scenario looks a lot like 2014: high motivation on the side of the opposition party, whose base votes in midterms; low motivation on the side of the majority party, which had low turnout voters who weren't so happy with the status quo. Dems stayed home; Pubs turned out; and the GOP flipped eight Senate seats. Some were reverting to form, like AR and LA. But the GOP also won CO that year. Lost it again in 2020.

I think there is going to be at least one blue victory that we don't see coming right now. Remember: at this time in 2007, the Dem nomination was almost certainly going to HRC as she was only running against some noob from Illinois named Barack Obama. So much can change.

My average case scenario has the Dems picking up three Senate seats: NC, ME and then one of IA, TX, OH, NE (too bad Paine isn't here), or a state I don't see coming. Maybe I'm optimistic, but I'm positive that the best case scenario is a lot better than 51-49.
 
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