2025 & 2026 Elections | Blue Wave 2025 results
- Thread starter nycfan
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1. Texas is redistricting. That is how I began this little sideshow. You have way too much faith in the lasting duration of a mere district court order.
2. Texas isn't the only state redistricting.
3. There is a bill languishing in the House drafted by a Republican congressman to ban mid-decade redistricting. Johnson is refusing to let the bill advance to a full vote because he thinks it would draw the ire of Trump. MAGA is still trying to put the thumb on the scales for 2026.
4. It is absolutely true that the impetus for the California proposition was the Texas redistricting. If Texas doesn't pass its bill, prop 50 never happens in California.
I know. When I respond to Zen, it is for the other people who don't have Zen on ignore, not for Zen himself.
I do not recall a single proposition 50 ad suggesting that if a court paused Texas' map, prop 50 would likewise be paused. The whole pitch was this was a temporary measure until 2030 in response to what Texas did.
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Zen being completely wrong is the default position, anything else is typically a coincidental minor anomaly that Zen will shortly correct.
superrific
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Don't fret too much over polls from Maine at this stage. Midterm elections are referenda on the president's performance. That's why I confidently predicted a blue wave this fall and even more confidently next fall.
I think Collins is a decided underdog, which might be why she STILL hasn't officially launched her campaign. That poll about Mills versus Collins very well could be skewed by Platner supporters wanting to undercut the Mills argument about electability. In the end, Collins has a 38% approval rating and 50%+ disapproval, and she will be running in a terrible environment for Pubs -- especially in Maine, which has been hit hardest by Trump's Canada bullshit.
Sure, Collins is a "fighter," a "survivor," a "canny politician with tons of support," and Maine is different. That's what everyone said about Heidi Heitkamp too. And Claire McCaskill. And Jon Tester. And Sherrod Brown. The reality is that politics is partisan, and it's exceedingly rare for anyone these days to buck national trends. In the last Senate race, Slotkin and Baldwin both eked out victories in states that Trump narrowly won -- I think they ran about two points ahead of Kamala, which happened to be decisive. That two points likely measures the racism in the race.
Collins ran in 2020, a presidential year with very high turnout. In 2014, during a very favorable GOP cycle. And in 2008, when Obama was campaigning on bipartisanship, and before all politics became so fully partisan. She now has to face an angry electorate in an off-year election when liberals are expected to have very high turnout and conservatives not so much. I don't care about polls, or reputation, or how much she's loved or whatever. I say she's an underdog. Not that she has 0% chance, but she's in trouble.
Incidentally, I was saying the same thing about the NC election even before Tillis decided to retire. Even before Cooper threw his name in. I think any Dem would have won in NC in 2026, but Coop is likely to win by double digits.
I think Collins is a decided underdog, which might be why she STILL hasn't officially launched her campaign. That poll about Mills versus Collins very well could be skewed by Platner supporters wanting to undercut the Mills argument about electability. In the end, Collins has a 38% approval rating and 50%+ disapproval, and she will be running in a terrible environment for Pubs -- especially in Maine, which has been hit hardest by Trump's Canada bullshit.
Sure, Collins is a "fighter," a "survivor," a "canny politician with tons of support," and Maine is different. That's what everyone said about Heidi Heitkamp too. And Claire McCaskill. And Jon Tester. And Sherrod Brown. The reality is that politics is partisan, and it's exceedingly rare for anyone these days to buck national trends. In the last Senate race, Slotkin and Baldwin both eked out victories in states that Trump narrowly won -- I think they ran about two points ahead of Kamala, which happened to be decisive. That two points likely measures the racism in the race.
Collins ran in 2020, a presidential year with very high turnout. In 2014, during a very favorable GOP cycle. And in 2008, when Obama was campaigning on bipartisanship, and before all politics became so fully partisan. She now has to face an angry electorate in an off-year election when liberals are expected to have very high turnout and conservatives not so much. I don't care about polls, or reputation, or how much she's loved or whatever. I say she's an underdog. Not that she has 0% chance, but she's in trouble.
Incidentally, I was saying the same thing about the NC election even before Tillis decided to retire. Even before Cooper threw his name in. I think any Dem would have won in NC in 2026, but Coop is likely to win by double digits.
Wait, Tuberville is leaving the senate to run for governor of Alabama? Did I miss this?
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He is, yes.
Strange times when the governor's mansion (especially the one in Alabama) is more enticing than a secure gig in the US senate. Maybe the grifting is better at the state level.
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Just bizzaro
GoHeelsweeeehoooo
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Doug jones is a great guy - probably has about a zero chance of winning
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Maybe he can find some old clips from Tuberville’s Auburn days of Tuberville talking trash about Crimson Tide football.
That won't do it. He'll need to find a dead girl or a live boy.
Mulberry Heel
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He is a great guy and already did good service for the nation by beating (barely) the underage-girl dating/abusing/assaulting religious hypocrite Roy Moore for the US Senate. The fact that he barely beat Moore despite the overwhelming evidence against him shows just what Democrats are up against in that state. So yeah, it's deep-red Alabama, and as Tuberville has no accusations against him of stalking underage teen girls in Alabama shopping malls (at least that I'm aware of) then Jones is probably toast.