2025 & 2026 Elections | NJ, VA elections approaching

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Zoo_View said:
Those red areas in NY fly A LOT of Confederate flags, Trump flags, Don’t Tread on Me flags, and Blue Lives Matter flags.
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I am embarrased at seeing this crap in rural NC-until I travel to Any Other State and see it there also........
 
superrific said:
Well, there are two factors in that first point. First is that gerrymandering helps Dems in some states. Illinois, for instance, is pretty Dem-gerrymandered. Maryland is very Dem-gerrymandered. On net, GOP states are more gerrymandered but not by THAT much. The second is the dummymander, which used to be a problem and appears to be less of a problem today.

On the second point, the Dems lost the popular vote in the House in 2016 by 1 point. In 2018, they won by almost 10 (so a 5 point swing in either direction). That was the difference between a narrow minority and a 35 seat majority. In 2020 they regressed by 3 points but that was still better than 2016, and thus did the Dems hold the House. In 2022, the GOP improved by 3 points (so a difference of 6) and they narrowly held the House.

So the national environment affects the distribution of races. I don't know where it happens exactly, but there are districts that go blue in blue waves and red in red wave elections. I don't know it that's just seats that would be Lean R and are now tossups, or if the Dems just win (or lose) almost all of the tossups, or if the Dems can win more "Likely R" districts, since Likely <> safe. But that's how it goes.

Now, factor in gerrymandering off that baseline. If the Dems would win 38 seats, maybe gerrymandering means that they will win 8 fewer. 10 fewer by design, but Dems prevail in a couple.
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Zoo_View said:
There’s a chance with gerrymandering that one state party could overreach in a given state.

The party that has control of a state might create too many districts that “lean” their way instead of being locks their way; especially in a blue or red wave election.

So, in North Carolina, we have 14 congressional districts that are heavily gerrymandered, giving the GOP 10 solid red districts and the Democrats 4 solid blue districts. If the GOP tries to go 11-3 or 12-2 red districts, it might only win 7-9 in a blue wave.

If Democrats get greedy in MD and try to take the one GOP district, they might lose 2-3 seats total instead of only one.
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So in other words dummymandering....
 
nycfan said:
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NJ is normally reliably blue recently, but Sherrill is in trouble there. NJ Republicans have been hammering her with everything they have, including pulling some dirty tricks with the help of the Trump Administration. A supporter of her GOP opponent asked the National Archives for her military service records, and the National Archives, in what it now admits was "an error", released far more information than they were supposed to, including even her Social Security number and other personal information.

One bit of information they uncovered, which has been given wide publicity, is that Sherrill didn't walk at her graduation ceremony from the US Naval Academy in connection with an exam cheating scandal there. Sherrill claims that she wasn't allowed to walk because she refused to turn in other classmates and points out that she did receive her degree and went on to a distinguished career as a Navy helicopter pilot, but her GOP opponent has hammered her on the issue, with Dear Leader backing him up on social media, and it does seem to be having an effect on the race. And as a candidate it's never good to be the one playing defense while your opponent just relentlessly attacks you.

I will say that if NJ voters are dumb enough to elect a Trumper GOP governor then they deserve everything they will get for the next four years. And LOL at Dear Leader for calling Mikie "Mike" - he's as dumb as a brick.
 
Icky Mettle said:
Not surprising. The rural areas outside NYC are VERY red and there aren’t really any big cities anywhere else in the state. The second largest city in NY (Buffalo) is less populous than the 4th largest city in NC (Durham). Only four cities outside of NYC have populations greater than 100k. NC has 10 cities with 100k+. Of those 10 in NC, 6 have more than 200k, 3 have more than 300k, 2 have more than 400k, and 1 has more than 900k.
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I did NOT know that and, because I am a hopelessly devout NERD!, I find it very interesting. Thank you!
 
Icky Mettle said:
Except we typically go red in statewide elections for federal office.
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In part, because in 2020 Cal Cunningham couldn't keep his pants zipped up even in an election year. In part because Chuck Schumer decreed that Cheri Beasley, not Jeff Jackson, should be the Democratic candidate for the Senate race in 2022. If it turns out, which I don't think it will, that Jeff Jackson has a side piece, I think I will quit voting for the rest of my life. In 2026, I will be voting for Roy Cooper. In 2028, I hope I will be voting for Jeff Jackson.
 
LT. Governor candidate in Virginia:

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americanjournalnews.com

Tumblr linked to Republican John Reid engaged with Nazi porn accounts

Reid denies ownership with the blog.
americanjournalnews.com americanjournalnews.com


“… Reid has denied ownership of the blog, which was hosted on Tumblr under the name JRDeux, the same handle he uses on Instagram and TikTok. Other news outlets have reported on the existence of the blog, but not its racist content or disturbing imagery.

Tumblr lets users upload and share different types of media. All of JRDeux’s posts were images reposted from other accounts. To find and share this content, JRDeux would have had to either follow the accounts that posted it, search for related material, or encounter it through Tumblr’s algorithmic recommendations.

Reid said the blog is part of a coordinated effort to smear him for being a gay Republican, even though its posts date back to 2014—before he was a political candidate and was mostly known as a local news broadcaster and media consultant.…”
 

Virginia AG candidate faces bipartisan backlash over violent, inflammatory text messages​


www.cbsnews.com

Virginia AG candidate faces bipartisan backlash over violent, inflammatory text messages

In text messages from 2022, former Virginia House Delegate Jay Jones mused about hypothetically shooting then-Republican Speaker of the House of Delegates Todd Gilbert.
www.cbsnews.com www.cbsnews.com

“…
In a statement to CBS News, Jones said he took full responsibility for his actions.

"I want to issue my deepest apology to Speaker Gilbert and his family. Reading back those words made me sick to my stomach. I am embarrassed, ashamed, and sorry… I have reached out to Speaker Gilbert to apologize directly to him, his wife Jennifer, and their children. I cannot take back what I said; I can only take full accountability and offer my sincere apology," Jones said.

Rep. Abigail Spanberger, Virginia's Democratic gubernatorial nominee, swiftly condemned Jones's comments.

"I spoke frankly with Jay about my disgust with what he had said and texted," Spanberger said Friday. "What I have also made clear is that as a candidate — and as the next governor of our commonwealth — I will always condemn threatening language in our politics."…”
 
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