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Probably but there is a good argument that Brown is the wrong candidate for the moment - a retread of the past rather than new blood,
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2026 Elections | Stefanik drops out
- Thread starter nycfan
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Jon Husted is a young candidate? He’s 58.
He’s younger than Sherrod Brown. He’s also held elected office since 2001 (Ohio legislature) and has held statewide office since 2011 (Sec’y of State, Lt. Governor, US Senate). The guy defines career politician. He’s not some outsider.
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My bad, I was merging the governors race there. Though in political terms for a US Senate Race, 58 is young.
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What’s the difference between Ohio and the beaches along the Carolinas during the summer?
There are fewer Ohioans in Ohio.
Mulberry Heel
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Of all the large states, Ohio and Florida are the two that have definitely shifted the most to the right over the past decade or so. Ohio was very competitive until Trump carried the state in 2016 (Obama won it in 2012) and it's been turning darker and darker shades of red ever since. From what I've read much of the state's move to the hard right has to do with the sharp decline in population over the past half-century of Ohio's largest cities like Cleveland, Akron, Cincinnati, Toledo, Youngstown, etc. whose factory blue-collar workers used to provide most of the votes for Democrats when they carried the state. As those cities lost population the importance of the GOP-leaning rural areas and small towns and suburbs increased, and many of these depressed urban areas also turned to the right as Trump promised them that he would bring all of their lost manufacturing jobs back.
If Democrats can't find ways to start winning back states like Ohio in Senate races, then it's going to be very, very difficult for them to win a working majority in the Senate ever again. Otherwise at best they'll win maybe 51 or 52 seats and will still be at the mercy of the Fetterman and Sinema and Manchin turncoat types.
BillOfRights
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Heading into midterms, Republicans hold edge with older voters, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds | Reuters Heading into midterms, Republicans hold edge with older voters, Reuters/Ipsos poll finds
GoHeelsweeeehoooo
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I saw somewhere that the redistricting changes at this point are basically a wash - starting to get hopeful that there will be a massive blue wave in the 2026 midterms
superrific
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There was going to be a massive blue wave all along. The redistricting changes were and are going to affect whether it's a 25 seat swing or a 35 seat one, but the prob that the Pubs control the House in 2027 has been low for months.
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And there you have it. In one sentence, "nycfan" has encapsulated about 99% of what is wrong with the US Senate.
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Throw in two more economy related issues - Healthcare and Social programs and the forecast is much worse. Those four issues are most important to 72% of respondents and they favor Dems by roughly 23% (weighted).
Redistricting is a double edged sword. Pubs risk diluting out their advantage and in a blue wave year, some of those previously deep red districts are only pink and become winnable by Dems with a massive turnout.
aGDevil2k
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I saw that and it was surprising
Then I read it was an online poll and I really just rolled my eyes
lawtig02
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I suspect it's more that older people judge the economy more by the stock market than by the price of housing or the number of job openings.
gtyellowjacket
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As a whole probably. Old people don't feel the employment rate as acutely as younger folks but they are going to feel inflation maybe even more than young people.
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I don’t believe those numbers. I saw that post and did a double take, then saw it was an Emerson poll and dismissed it.
lawtig02
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On some things maybe. But not so much on SS, which is largely inflation adjusted, or on basic healthcare.
Mulberry Heel
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I definitely think the Democrats will win back control of the US House of Representatives next year, even with all the GOP gerrymandering, and I think they'll do it fairly easily (gain 20+ seats). But the Senate is going to be far more difficult to win back as there are simply more red than blue or even purple states, and so it will likely take a massive blue wave like 2006 or 1986 to give them a majority, and even then it almost certainly wouldn't be more than 51 seats. So I don't think they're going to win a Senate majority, and at most, if we're lucky, Cooper may win the open NC Senate seat and maybe they'll pull an upset and gain another seat somewhere without losing any vulnerable seats of their own.
However, I do think that Democrats should pick up some governorships and other state government positions around the country as the economy continues to decline. The Democrats will likely gain some state legislature seats too, although their gains in legislatures will be pretty severely limited by the extreme GOP gerrymandering in most red and even purple states like NC. NC Democrats would have to win at least 60% of the statewide vote to win even a bare majority in either house of the NC legislature, which isn't happening anytime soon, imo. But they might be able to gain a few more seats and thus give Josh Stein some real veto power in the legislature. Right now he's got veto power by a single vote, and unfortunately there are a few turncoat Manchin-style Democrats in the legislature who voted with Republicans to overturn some of his vetoes this year.
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