2026 Midterm Elections - All eyes on Texas tonight

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SnoopRob said:
If he wins a Texas US Senate seat for the Dems, we need him to stay in that seat as long as possible (or at least until a reasonable successor can be determined).
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I guess that depends on whether Democrats have a majority in 2027 or can reasonably expect to get one in 2029. If the senate is lost either way, his seat isn't as valuable.
 
Calheel said:
I guess that depends on whether Democrats have a majority in 2027 or can reasonably expect to get one in 2029. If the senate is lost either way, his seat isn't as valuable.
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There's some truth to that, but Senate seats last 6 years per election and re-election is always possible. I would be very hard pressed to see Dems voluntarily giving up a Senate seat in a state as red as Texas as a good idea barring any other inputs.
 
SnoopRob said:
If he wins a Texas US Senate seat for the Dems, we need him to stay in that seat as long as possible (or at least until a reasonable successor can be determined).
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Well, quite apart from that, this is basically the career trajectory of one president in history: Obama. And I like Talarico, but he's no Obama. And Obama was only Obama because HRC had otherwise cleared the field.

I do not think Talarico would be able to get through a crowded primary with what remains low name recognition and a thin resume.

And I think he would know that. He strikes me as the kind of guy who takes his job seriously, not as a stepping stone. Might he run at some point? Sure, but after two years in the Senate? I have my doubts.
 
superrific said:
Well, quite apart from that, this is basically the career trajectory of one president in history: Obama. And I like Talarico, but he's no Obama. And Obama was only Obama because HRC had otherwise cleared the field.

I do not think Talarico would be able to get through a crowded primary with what remains low name recognition and a thin resume.

And I think he would know that. He strikes me as the kind of guy who takes his job seriously, not as a stepping stone. Might he run at some point? Sure, but after two years in the Senate? I have my doubts.
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Definitely agree with this.

What would you think about the viability of Newsom and Ossof on a ticket?
 
CFordUNC said:
Definitely agree with this.

What would you think about the viability of Newsom and Ossof on a ticket?
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I don't care about tickets. Only the name at the top matters.

I am skeptical of Newsom, because Calheel doesn't like him. Calheel should be firmly in Newsom's base. If Newsom has a chance, it's because the Calheels of the world support him. Now, Calheel is only one guy, and maybe all the other Calheels would support him. But at this point I have very limited data, and this anecdotal data point carries enough weight for now.

Note: I said I was skeptical. I don't have an opinion that he can't do well, but I'm not enthusiastic about him either at this point. The problem is that he won't be able to win an open D primary just by shitposting about Trump. I don't think he's an empty suit -- far from it -- but he has some downsides. his position on the CA wealth tax will hurt him, even though it's probably the right thing to do as governor.

We have a lot of imperfect candidates at this point. That's not surprising, because it's far out. But we shouldn't expect an Obama to ride in. It's sure looking like the electoral theory -- which will probably prevail -- is that the other guy is a disaster. And if the other guy is Vance, it will be a historically weak candidate.
 
SnoopRob said:
If he wins a Texas US Senate seat for the Dems, we need him to stay in that seat as long as possible (or at least until a reasonable successor can be determined).
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Yeah people are just way too hasty we these things now. Why rush Talarico from a senate seat to the presidency so quikly? He'd basically have to campaign for Pres as soon as he started serving. Not to mention, as you reference, that it would likely cost Dems a senate seat if he won.
 
superrific said:
I don't care about tickets. Only the name at the top matters.

I am skeptical of Newsom, because Calheel doesn't like him. Calheel should be firmly in Newsom's base. If Newsom has a chance, it's because the Calheels of the world support him. Now, Calheel is only one guy, and maybe all the other Calheels would support him. But at this point I have very limited data, and this anecdotal data point carries enough weight for now.

Note: I said I was skeptical. I don't have an opinion that he can't do well, but I'm not enthusiastic about him either at this point. The problem is that he won't be able to win an open D primary just by shitposting about Trump. I don't think he's an empty suit -- far from it -- but he has some downsides. his position on the CA wealth tax will hurt him, even though it's probably the right thing to do as governor.

We have a lot of imperfect candidates at this point. That's not surprising, because it's far out. But we shouldn't expect an Obama to ride in. It's sure looking like the electoral theory -- which will probably prevail -- is that the other guy is a disaster. And if the other guy is Vance, it will be a historically weak candidate.
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Newsom will have some issues appealing to moderates because Pubs will run ads highlighting his most extreme policies and trouble appealing to the base because many of them will (rightly, IMO) perceive him as a political chameleon with a questionable commitment to progressive principles. I really hope he isn't the nominee.
 
rodoheel said:
Newsom will have some issues appealing to moderates because Pubs will run ads highlighting his most extreme policies and trouble appealing to the base because many of them will (rightly, IMO) perceive him as a political chameleon with a questionable commitment to progressive principles. I really hope he isn't the nominee.
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Yeah I am completely out on Newsom, dude is throwing trans people under the bus and doing podcasts with Steve Bannon. Plus his veneers are creepy.
 
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