2026 Midterm Elections - Talarico wins, Paxton/Cornyn headed to runoff

[superrific]

I have my doubts that Paxton is going to drop out even if Trump endorses Cornyn.

I also have my doubts that there is a meaningful electoral difference between Paxton and Cornyn. The elections are going to be about the perceptions of how much of a shitshow is happening.

 

[rodoheel]

I have my doubts that Paxton is going to drop out even if Trump endorses Cornyn.

I also have my doubts that there is a meaningful electoral difference between Paxton and Cornyn. The elections are going to be about the perceptions of how much of a shitshow is happening.

I'll push back on both points.

One, if Trump asks Paxton to drop out, I think Paxton will drop out. Defying Trump doesn't fit at all with his political brand of MAGA warrior. Even if his ego makes him inclined to keep fighting, he's likely even more corrupt than Trump and probably getting taken to the cleaners in his divorce so I'm sure the two of them can work out a dirty quid pro quo that neither will have any moral qualms about.

Two, you are right that the national political environment is the biggest factor in Dems having a chance, but I don't think there's any doubt that Paxton is a more polarizing statewide candidate than Cornyn. Paxton has major baggage and completely turns off moderates in a way Cornyn doesn't (especially running against Talarico). The national political environment is what can close the race from R+10-12 to R+3-5. The difference between Cornyn and Paxton is what could close the race from R +3-5 to R+ 0-2.

 

[superrific]

I'll push back on both points.

One, if Trump asks Paxton to drop out, I think Paxton will drop out. Defying Trump doesn't fit at all with his political brand of MAGA warrior. Even if his ego makes him inclined to keep fighting, he's likely even more corrupt than Trump and probably getting taken to the cleaners in his divorce so I'm sure the two of them can work out a dirty quid pro quo that neither will have any moral qualms about.

Two, you are right that the national political environment is the biggest factor in Dems having a chance, but I don't think there's any doubt that Paxton is a more polarizing statewide candidate than Cornyn. Paxton has major baggage and completely turns off moderates in a way Cornyn doesn't (especially running against Talarico). The national political environment is what can close the race from R+10-12 to R+3-5. The difference between Cornyn and Paxton is what could close the race from R +3-5 to R+ 0-2.

I mean, maybe. I guess we'll find out. I have trouble believing that, with this administration and everything that has been going on, "baggage" is going to make much difference. They are going to have to rely on their base and those people DGAF. Moderates are already sitting out or voting Dem.

Could you sell me on Paxton vs Cornyn is a 1 point difference? Yes. 2? I'd say stretching it. But I'm not a Texan and even if I was, it's March. So of course I'm just guessing.

 

[rodoheel]

Could you sell me on Paxton vs Cornyn is a 1 point difference? Yes. 2? I'd say stretching it.

Even if I concede for the sake of argument that Cornyn vs Paxton is only a 1-1.5 point difference, which I think is more likely underselling it a bit, you surely understand that those 1-1.5 points make an absolutely huge difference in the Dems' chances of flipping the seat.

 

[superrific]

Even if I concede for the sake of argument that Cornyn vs Paxton is only a 1-1.5 point difference, which I think is more likely underselling it a bit, you surely understand that those 1-1.5 points make an absolutely huge difference in the Dems' chances of flipping the seat.

I mean, I understand the theory. I'm not sure it's going to turn out that way. I'm not a soothsayer -- though my predictions about the 2026 midterms made last February have been holding up quite well.