2026 Midterm Elections

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
  • Start date Start date
  • Replies: 3K
  • Views: 111K
  • Politics 
I have my doubts that Paxton is going to drop out even if Trump endorses Cornyn.

I also have my doubts that there is a meaningful electoral difference between Paxton and Cornyn. The elections are going to be about the perceptions of how much of a shitshow is happening.
 
superrific said:
I have my doubts that Paxton is going to drop out even if Trump endorses Cornyn.

I also have my doubts that there is a meaningful electoral difference between Paxton and Cornyn. The elections are going to be about the perceptions of how much of a shitshow is happening.
Click to expand...
I'll push back on both points.

One, if Trump asks Paxton to drop out, I think Paxton will drop out. Defying Trump doesn't fit at all with his political brand of MAGA warrior. Even if his ego makes him inclined to keep fighting, he's likely even more corrupt than Trump and probably getting taken to the cleaners in his divorce so I'm sure the two of them can work out a dirty quid pro quo that neither will have any moral qualms about.

Two, you are right that the national political environment is the biggest factor in Dems having a chance, but I don't think there's any doubt that Paxton is a more polarizing statewide candidate than Cornyn. Paxton has major baggage and completely turns off moderates in a way Cornyn doesn't (especially running against Talarico). The national political environment is what can close the race from R+10-12 to R+3-5. The difference between Cornyn and Paxton is what could close the race from R +3-5 to R+ 0-2.
 
rodoheel said:
I'll push back on both points.

One, if Trump asks Paxton to drop out, I think Paxton will drop out. Defying Trump doesn't fit at all with his political brand of MAGA warrior. Even if his ego makes him inclined to keep fighting, he's likely even more corrupt than Trump and probably getting taken to the cleaners in his divorce so I'm sure the two of them can work out a dirty quid pro quo that neither will have any moral qualms about.

Two, you are right that the national political environment is the biggest factor in Dems having a chance, but I don't think there's any doubt that Paxton is a more polarizing statewide candidate than Cornyn. Paxton has major baggage and completely turns off moderates in a way Cornyn doesn't (especially running against Talarico). The national political environment is what can close the race from R+10-12 to R+3-5. The difference between Cornyn and Paxton is what could close the race from R +3-5 to R+ 0-2.
Click to expand...
I mean, maybe. I guess we'll find out. I have trouble believing that, with this administration and everything that has been going on, "baggage" is going to make much difference. They are going to have to rely on their base and those people DGAF. Moderates are already sitting out or voting Dem.

Could you sell me on Paxton vs Cornyn is a 1 point difference? Yes. 2? I'd say stretching it. But I'm not a Texan and even if I was, it's March. So of course I'm just guessing.
 
superrific said:
Could you sell me on Paxton vs Cornyn is a 1 point difference? Yes. 2? I'd say stretching it.
Click to expand...
Even if I concede for the sake of argument that Cornyn vs Paxton is only a 1-1.5 point difference, which I think is more likely underselling it a bit, you surely understand that those 1-1.5 points make an absolutely huge difference in the Dems' chances of flipping the seat.
 
rodoheel said:
Even if I concede for the sake of argument that Cornyn vs Paxton is only a 1-1.5 point difference, which I think is more likely underselling it a bit, you surely understand that those 1-1.5 points make an absolutely huge difference in the Dems' chances of flipping the seat.
Click to expand...
I mean, I understand the theory. I'm not sure it's going to turn out that way. I'm not a soothsayer -- though my predictions about the 2026 midterms made last February have been holding up quite well.
 
nycfan said:
Click to expand...

I figured this would happen - Paxton finished only about one percentage point behind Cornyn, and he's still got a decent shot to win a runoff, with or without Trump's endorsement (Trump's endorsement didn't help Phil Berger cross the finish line in NC, despite Berger advertising Trump's endorsement in nearly every ad he ran). Like Trump, Paxton ultimately cares only about himself and his ambitions, and as long as he thinks he's got a chance to win this primary he won't drop out, imo. Hopefully he sticks with it and this ends up being an incredibly ugly runoff primary in which he and Cornyn tear each other apart and the winner emerges wounded and hobbled for the fall campaign.
 
Last edited:
LosPollosHermanos said:
The people I know in Rockingham County said Page would win by a landslide there and it would come down to Guilford. Page is a very, very popular Sheriff.
Click to expand...
I find it hard to believe that Berger, with his support in Guilford and all of his money and lawyers and statewide influence, won't find some way to win this primary in the end. He only trails by two votes, which could easily be overcome in a variety of ways. I'd say that Berger is the favorite - Page's people will need to be at the top of their game to win this in the long run, imo.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
I find it hard to believe that Berger, with his support in Guilford and all of his money and lawyers and statewide influence, won't find some way to win this primary in the end. He only trails by two votes, which could easily be overcome in a variety of ways. I'd say that Berger is the favorite - Page's people will need to be at the top of their game to win this in the long run, imo.
Click to expand...

I agree 100%. As much as I want Berger to lose for all his long term hi-jinks he'll "find" those votes somewhere. Page is Trumper Trash too but I think he's the lesser of two evils.
 
CFordUNC said:
Click to expand...

Many of the replies to that tweet are awful, and it seems clear that MAGAs are already laser-focused with their negative talking points. Some quote from Matthew 7 about "False Prophets" (and of course are totally clueless that that passage far better applies to their own preachers and leaders), some are already digging up dirt from his past, and so on. It's going to be a long slog until November, and I'm sure that Republicans are going to spend a vast fortune throwing everything but the kitchen sink at this guy. It will make what Phil Berger did to Sam Page look like child's play. By November I fully expect right-wing media to be saying that Talarico is the Antichrist in the flesh, that he eats babies for breakfast, and of course that he wants to personally send transgenders to molest your kids and that he's a snooty snob who looks down his nose at decent, god-fearing working-class white Real Americans (Texans).

I just hope that he and his campaign team know what's coming their way and have an effective response ready.
 
CFordUNC said:
Click to expand...

Not entirely sure the religious aspects of his candidacy exclusively drove his Hispanic support. Doubt it hurt, but remember that Sanders also did extremely well among Hispanics in 2020. Combine that with Crockett saying after 2024 that Latinos have a “slave mentality.”

Talarico’s campaign worked with Chuck Rocha who also directed Bernie’s Hispanic outreach in 2020. There’s something to be said for economic populism as the main driver of Hispanic support since they’re overwhelmingly young and independent.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top