2026 Midterm Elections

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Calheel said:
But I think the point Harry is making is that seniors are much more likely to vote in an off year election than young people.
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Yes indeed

But I think this is an atypical off year election given the last 2 years. Typically Dems don't show up to vote in off year elections but GQPers do turn out.
The off year elections so far suggest to me that Dems and even young voters are amped and senior GQPers are not.

But who knows ? Maybe the war on Iran will end tomorrow, gas prices will return to $2/gallon, and inflation will be at 2% come November. Maybe Pope Leo and Trump will have a kumbaya moment and conservative Catholics will rush to the polls to vote for GQP candidates come November.

At this point Harry's historical point doesn't trouble me, but again taking back the Senate , while possible, will not be easy no matter what...
 
heelinhell said:
Yes indeed

But I think this is an atypical off year election given the last 2 years. Typically Dems don't show up to vote in off year elections but GQPers do turn out.
The off year elections so far suggest to me that Dems and even young voters are amped and senior GQPers are not.

But who knows ? Maybe the war on Iran will end tomorrow, gas prices will return to $2/gallon, and inflation will be at 2% come November. Maybe Pope Leo and Trump will have a kumbaya moment and conservative Catholics will rush to the polls to vote for GQP candidates come November.

At this point Harry's historical point doesn't trouble me, but again taking back the Senate , while possible, will not be easy no matter what...
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Yeah, I definitely think Democrats will show up for the midterms this year in big numbers, and in nearly every special election we've seen last year and this year there's been a big swing, even in some deep-red districts, towards Democratic candidates, although in solid red districts it's obviously still not enough to win.

I think the bigger question is if and how the Trump administration or state GOP governments will try to screw with the voting and election process. The Supreme Court is already likely going to agree to allow state governments to no longer count votes that arrive after election day in the mail, and my guess is that there are other similar schemes to try and rig the election on the way. But in terms of people being interested in and fired up to vote Democratic this year, I don't think that's going to be the problem.
 
sunnyheel said:
Just a note here that the “gift” links to wsj never work for me. Always behind the paywall. Others have noted the same for my links to nyt.
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They work for me.

ETA: and I appreciate them. Thanks nycfan.

I subscribe to The Atlantic, New Republic, Washington Post, and my local paper, but we can't subscribe to everything.
 
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Mulberry Heel said:
Yeah, I definitely think Democrats will show up for the midterms this year in big numbers, and in nearly every special election we've seen last year and this year there's been a big swing, even in some deep-red districts, towards Democratic candidates, although in solid red districts it's obviously still not enough to win.

I think the bigger question is if and how the Trump administration or state GOP governments will try to screw with the voting and election process. The Supreme Court is already likely going to agree to allow state governments to no longer count votes that arrive after election day in the mail, and my guess is that there are other similar schemes to try and rig the election on the way. But in terms of people being interested in and fired up to vote Democratic this year, I don't think that's going to be the problem.
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The GOP is run by traitors to The Constitution. Expect Dirty Tricks.
 
sunnyheel said:
Just a note here that the “gift” links to wsj never work for me. Always behind the paywall. Others have noted the same for my links to nyt.
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I'd love to know what "changes" in policy the Republicans are actually willing to make. Trump is never going to change, and he's going to continue to do stupid and outrageous shit right until the election. Nothing is going to change there, and that's the main thing that could help Republicans. They're never going to change their policies on enriching the rich even more or any of their other policies, although they may try to soft-pedal them for awhile.

In the end the only thing Republicans can likely do at this point to try and avoid a blue wave election will be to push through voter restrictions of all kinds to try and suppress the Democratic vote (which they've all but admitted they're tying to do), and run an extremely nasty campaign this fall in which they tie Democrats to transgenders and other red-meat culture war issues hand-and-foot and make Democrats appear as extreme and radical as possible. I seriously doubt that we'll see any real changes in their policies or behavior. The only thing that is likely to start changing the behavior and attitude of some Republican pols is a wipeout at election time and for the party to start feeling real electoral pain. Unless that happens they're never going to change, and it's not happened in the decade since Trump first took office. Even in 2020 Trump (barely) lost but the GOP actually did very well in many down-ballot races across the country.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
I'd love to know what "changes" in policy the Republicans are actually willing to make. Trump is never going to change, and he's going to continue to do stupid and outrageous shit right until the election. Nothing is going to change there, and that's the main thing that could help Republicans. They're never going to change their policies on enriching the rich even more or any of their other policies, although they may try to soft-pedal them for awhile.

In the end the only thing Republicans can likely do at this point to try and avoid a blue wave election will be to push through voter restrictions of all kinds to try and suppress the Democratic vote (which they've all but admitted they're tying to do), and run an extremely nasty campaign this fall in which they tie Democrats to transgenders and other red-meat culture war issues hand-and-foot and make Democrats appear as extreme and radical as possible. I seriously doubt that we'll see any real changes in their policies or behavior. The only thing that is likely to start changing the behavior and attitude of some Republican pols is a wipeout at election time and for the party to start feeling real electoral pain. Unless that happens they're never going to change, and it's not happened in the decade since Trump first took office. Even in 2020 Trump (barely) lost but the GOP actually did very well in many down-ballot races across the country.
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I agree. It’s the fealty to the investor/donor class. Same with Democrats. They’re both beholden to the status quo.
 
sunnyheel said:
I agree. It’s the fealty to the investor/donor class. Same with Democrats. They’re both beholden to the status quo.
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I do wish that Democrats wouldn't listen to the Schumer types as much or the DC consulting class, but there's also no doubt which party is preferable to have in charge. MAGA Republicans are insane, Democrats generally are not. It's almost impossible to look at Trump's cabinet or the GOP Congressional leadership and conclude that Democrats wouldn't be far preferable to have running things, imperfect as they may be. No doubt Democrats have much room for improvement, but at the same time I'll take them any day over what MAGA is offering, which isn't just supporting the status quo, but is pure lunacy for the most part.
 
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