ACCT: Notre Dame Biorhythms, 2:30 Start

If we beat Wake Forest tomorrow, I have to think we are in the tournament. I understand that our record against quadrant one teams is abysmal, and I know that in theory you really should need to beat at least some of the highest quality teams that you play, but literally everything besides our quadrant one record says tournament team that is not really even on the bubble.
 
CFordUNC said:
If we beat Wake Forest tomorrow, I have to think we are in the tournament.
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I think there are other moving parts to that for me to feel any real confidence about it.

There are a number of other teams we want/need to lose today/tomorrow. And I think how we play against dook can play a role.
 
CFordUNC said:
If we beat Wake Forest tomorrow, I have to think we are in the tournament. I understand that our record against quadrant one teams is abysmal, and I know that in theory you really should need to beat at least some of the highest quality teams that you play, but literally everything besides our quadrant one record says tournament team that is not really even on the bubble.
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It is possible (largely because of brand) but we are on the outside looking in on Bracket Matrix, and that is before there are any bid stealers. We are in 9 brackets currently, Ohio St is in 79 and Xavier is in 89 brackets. Maybe OSU's loss today will let us jump them, but that is an awful lot of brackets we need to cross.
 
Ye
Calheel said:
It is possible (largely because of brand) but we are on the outside looking in on Bracket Matrix, and that is before there are any bid stealers. We are in 9 brackets currently, Ohio St is in 79 and Xavier is in 89 brackets. Maybe OSU's loss today will let us jump them, but that is an awful lot of brackets we need to cross.
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Yeah. Obviously they don’t care what I think, and certainly I am not without a whole lot of bias. If the committee only cares about Q1 record, then we are definitely chalked. But IMO only caring about Q1 renders the other Q2-4 stats totally meaningless, along with efficiency metrics and how a team is trending/has improved at the end of the season. Assuming we beat Wake and lose to Duke, our only losses for the entire last month of the season would be to the best team in the country. We’ve really only been beaten soundly a small handful of times this season (at Duke and at Clemson, and then maybe you could consider Auburn and Alabama back in November).

I definitely understand that the point of scheduling really tough teams in the nonconference is not simply just to schedule them but also to beat some of them, but it’s also true that if Carolina had just scheduled a handful of mid majors instead of playing Kansas, Florida, and Alabama in the same year where we were in the Maui field, we’d have like 25 wins right now and not even be close to the bubble.

Anyway, I recognize that I am fully biased and not at all objective on this. Let’s just hope the committee does not have a laser focus on Q1 record alone.
 
CFordUNC said:
Ye

Yeah. Obviously they don’t care what I think, and certainly I am not without a whole lot of bias. If the committee only cares about Q1 record, then we are definitely chalked. But IMO only caring about Q1 renders the other Q2-4 stats totally meaningless, along with efficiency metrics and how a team is trending/has improved at the end of the season. Assuming we beat Wake and lose to Duke, our only losses for the entire last month of the season would be to the best team in the country. We’ve really only been beaten soundly a small handful of times this season (at Duke and at Clemson, and then maybe you could consider Auburn and Alabama back in November).

I definitely understand that the point of scheduling really tough teams in the nonconference is not simply just to schedule them but also to beat some of them, but it’s also true that if Carolina had just scheduled a handful of mid majors instead of playing Kansas, Florida, and Alabama in the same year where we were in the Maui field, we’d have like 25 wins right now and not even be close to the bubble.

Anyway, I recognize that I am fully biased and not at all objective on this. Let’s just hope the committee does not have a laser focus on Q1 record alone.
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Things are trending up today. We’ve jumped Ohio state in most brackets. Now we need to beat Wake, stay competitive with Duke, and hope for no bid stealers.
 
All the teams competing for the final few spots have winnable Q1 games today

While UNC gets yet another Q2... with a Q1-A on deck. Story of the season
 
Heelsandeers said:
All the teams competing for the final few spots have winnable Q1 games today

While UNC gets yet another Q2... with a Q1-A on deck. Story of the season
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At some point the metrics take care of this. We are now top 36 in almost all of the metrics. It is very rare - but not unprecedented - for a top 36 metric team to be left out of an at large spot.
 
Calheel said:
At some point the metrics take care of this. We are now top 36 in almost all of the metrics. It is very rare - but not unprecedented - for a top 36 metric team to be left out of an at large spot.
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Let's hope. I do think if certain games break right today, we can feel a lot better about it

It's just hard to get past 1 W vs the tournament at large field. I wonder how often if ever, that's occurred
 
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