American O.D. rates drop by 10.6% (maybe by a lot more??)

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nycfan

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"... Some researchers believe the data will show an even larger decline in drug deaths when federal surveys are updated to reflect improvements being seen at the state level, especially in the eastern U.S.

"In the states that have the most rapid data collection systems, we’re seeing declines of twenty percent, thirty percent," said Dr. Nabarun Dasgupta, an expert on street drugs at the University of North Carolina.

According to Dasgupta's analysis, which has sparked discussion among addiction and drug policy experts, the drop in state-level mortality numbers corresponds with similar steep declines in emergency room visits linked to overdoses.
 
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opioiddatalab.ghost.io

Are overdoses down and why?

📣This blog post was covered by National Public Radio on September 18, 2024. Tune in to NPR's Morning Edition and All Things Considered today to hear interviews from around the country corroborating our analysis, and offering perspectives on causes. By: Nabarun Dasgupta, Colin Miller, Adams...
opioiddatalab.ghost.io opioiddatalab.ghost.io

"... Let's be clear: Too many people we love are still dying from overdose. Any decrease is too late for them.

Yet, -15% to -20% decreases in overdose would be unprecedented. To our knowledge, no public health intervention in the United States has ever achieved this benchmark. For example, NIDA spent $343.7 million (!) to show that it was possible to reduce overdoses by 9% in four states in one year. A reduction of this magnitude across the entire country translates to a very strong acting force. Something has changed. And that this is happening without central coordination is a big deal. It had major implications for the way we think about overdose prevention interventions.
 
First responders are reporting that non-fatal opioid overdoses are down 16.7% in September 2024 compared to September 2023.

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That's great news. I would have expected a decline as people realize the implications of prescribing opioids so less people get addicted, but would not have expected a death rate plummeting like that.
 
nycfan said:


"... Some researchers believe the data will show an even larger decline in drug deaths when federal surveys are updated to reflect improvements being seen at the state level, especially in the eastern U.S.

"In the states that have the most rapid data collection systems, we’re seeing declines of twenty percent, thirty percent," said Dr. Nabarun Dasgupta, an expert on street drugs at the University of North Carolina.

According to Dasgupta's analysis, which has sparked discussion among addiction and drug policy experts, the drop in state-level mortality numbers corresponds with similar steep declines in emergency room visits linked to overdoses.
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This is sarcasm.....

The drop is probably due to Oregon re-makimg drugs illegal.
 
BlooVooDoo said:
Seems like naloxone is everywhere. I doubt that’s a primary reason for the decline, but it could be a contributing factor.
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It has to be part of it. Our kids carry it in their car at all times, not just in case they need it for themselves, but in case they’re somewhere one of their friends needs it. I know tons of parents are doing the same.
 
Trump’s team about to argue that inflation has made drugs too expensive for junkies to even overdose properly.
 
BlooVooDoo said:
Seems like naloxone is everywhere. I doubt that’s a primary reason for the decline, but it could be a contributing factor.
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Maybe, but if someone gets naloxone they still need to go to the ER, and ER visits are down by about the same amount.
 
I read somewhere a few months ago that China had finally started cracking down on production of fentanyl precursors because it was actually finally experiencing a fentanyl crisis as well. Maybe that has something to do with it? Less availability?
 
This is going to sound horrible and I can't figure out a way for it not to sound bad...but perhaps part of the downturn is that so many folks who use have OD'd in the last few years that we're now experiencing a reduction based on regression to the mean?
 
UNCBAdookJD said:
Maybe, but if someone gets naloxone they still need to go to the ER, and ER visits are down by about the same amount.
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Yeah, but lots don’t go to the ER. In my area naloxone gets handed out like condoms on a college campus. Folks in drug addled camps keep it around, see someone pass out, dose with naloxone, rinse repeat - granted, these are clinical anecdotes (3), but none of the folks were from the same camp.

If a cop, firefighter, EMT doses someone, yeah, they typically go to the ER.
 
SnoopRob said:
This is going to sound horrible and I can't figure out a way for it not to sound bad...but perhaps part of the downturn is that so many folks who use have OD'd in the last few years that we're now experiencing a reduction based on regression to the mean?
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This is part of the explanation. I don't think it sounds horrible, especially if you put it this way: we've had some success in reducing the pool of potential addicts, so we are seeing a decline in addicts and thus in ODs.
 
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