Approval/Disapproval Polls

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LosPollosHermanos said:
You're sheltered. Get 30+ minutes outside most metro areas and they're very popular. Unfortunate fact.
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Given Trump’s recent polling numbers, I’m not 100% sure on that.

Trump/MAGA will certainly retain ~40% of the vote no matter what—and in some rural areas, that might climb as high as 80-90%.

Still, there are a lot of signs that the MAGA movement has bitten off more than it can chew. Plummeting approval among Hispanics—who definitely moved the needle in ‘24 for Trump. Approval among black voters also sinking fast.

Farmers starting to feel the effects of tariffs and lack of immigrant workers.

Poor white rural folks starting to feel the economic pinch, which is gonna get worse when they lose their SNAP bennies and health insurance.

To be fair, gerrymandering and R efforts to fuck with the voting system might well make popularity an obsolete factor in an election. We shall see.
 
Kingpin said:
Oh I know that. But those people in rural areas are a true minority. Land does not vote.
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I get what you're saying, but unfortunately in our current, outdated political system land actually does vote in that rural areas are grossly overrepresented in Congress and the Electoral College. Wyoming with about 600,000 people has the same number of Senators as California with over 38 million. Thanks to gerrymandering rural areas are greatly overrepresented in the House of Representatives and most state legislatures compared to urban areas. The electoral college favors rural states at the expense of urban ones. If power were distributed in government based on the actual percentage of population who lives in rural and urban areas then urban areas would have much greater representation in Congress and many state legislatures than they do now. And unfortunately Republicans will never peacefully allow that system to change or be reformed, as to do so would be a death knell to them, and they know it.
 
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Mulberry Heel said:
I get what you're saying, but unfortunately in our current, outdated political system land actually does vote in that rural areas are grossly overrepresented in Congress and the Electoral College. Wyoming with about 600,000 people has the same number of Senators as California with over 38 million. Thanks to gerrymandering rural areas are greatly overrepresented in the House of Representatives and most state legislatures compared to urban areas. The electoral college favors rural states at the expense of urban ones. If power were distributed in government based on the actual percentage of population who lives in rural and urban areas then urban areas would have much greater representation in Congress and many state legislatures than they do now. And unfortunately Republicans will never peacefully allow that system to change or be reformed, as to do so would be a death knell to them, and they know it.
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Yes, agree to all above.
 
EyeballKid said:
Given Trump’s recent polling numbers, I’m not 100% sure on that.

Trump/MAGA will certainly retain ~40% of the vote no matter what—and in some rural areas, that might climb as high as 80-90%.

Still, there are a lot of signs that the MAGA movement has bitten off more than it can chew. Plummeting approval among Hispanics—who definitely moved the needle in ‘24 for Trump. Approval among black voters also sinking fast.

Farmers starting to feel the effects of tariffs and lack of immigrant workers.

Poor white rural folks starting to feel the economic pinch, which is gonna get worse when they lose their SNAP bennies and health insurance.

To be fair, gerrymandering and R efforts to fuck with the voting system might well make popularity an obsolete factor in an election. We shall see.
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This board has always been full of a lot of wishful thinking and I'll admit most of my evidence is anecdotal, but the left has a long way to go to pull back the swing voters. And a lot of the far left is going to have to endure some centrist views to avoid throwing the baby out with the bathwater again.
 
LosPollosHermanos said:
This board has always been full of a lot of wishful thinking and I'll admit most of my evidence is anecdotal, but the left has a long way to go to pull back the swing voters. And a lot of the far left is going to have to endure some centrist views to avoid throwing the baby out with the bathwater again.
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While I largely agree, I think it’s pretty hard to ignore the vast majority of weekly polls that show a pretty massive shift away from Trumpism.

To be clear:

We’re still a year away from midterms and 3 years away from presidential elections. A lot can and will change between now and then.

That said, there’s a fair amount of evidence that folks are only now staring yo feel the effects of Trump’s policies.

There will be tens/hundreds of thousands more deportations of innocent immigrants who were trying to “do it the right way.” There will be more black and brown people assaulted by ICE and DHS. There will be more innocent white protesters arrested and jailed.

There will be more military in our streets. The economic stresses of the tariff war will get worse. The insanity of our provocations in Venezuela and the rest of Latin/South America will get worse.

Our healthcare will get worse. People will start to feel the effects of the breakdown of federal agencies that has happened under Trump/Musk.

There’s a lot of pain coming. Hopefully Dems can message appropriately to assure voters that there’s a better way.
 
EyeballKid said:
While I largely agree, I think it’s pretty hard to ignore the vast majority of weekly polls that show a pretty massive shift away from Trumpism.

To be clear:

We’re still a year away from midterms and 3 years away from presidential elections. A lot can and will change between now and then.

That said, there’s a fair amount of evidence that folks are only now staring yo feel the effects of Trump’s policies.

There will be tens/hundreds of thousands more deportations of innocent immigrants who were trying to “do it the right way.” There will be more black and brown people assaulted by ICE and DHS. There will be more innocent white protesters arrested and jailed.

There will be more military in our streets. The economic stresses of the tariff war will get worse. The insanity of our provocations in Venezuela and the rest of Latin/South America will get worse.

Our healthcare will get worse. People will start to feel the effects of the breakdown of federal agencies that has happened under Trump/Musk.

There’s a lot of pain coming. Hopefully Dems can message appropriately to assure voters that there’s a better way.
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Trump has not lost a single voter and will not. You are correct that the pain is just now being felt and that should terrify you. As the pain ratchets up, Trump voters will not blame Trump. They will blame us. They will target us. They will take their misery out on us. That is how cults work.
 
wmheel1287 said:
Trump has not lost a single voter and will not. You are correct that the pain is just now being felt and that should terrify you. As the pain ratchets up, Trump voters will not blame Trump. They will blame us. They will target us. They will take their misery out on us. That is how cults work.
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I guess that’s where we get terms like “cutting one’s nose off to spite one’s face”
Or, “shooting yourself in the foot”
And other similar idioms.

I find it more interesting to learn how millions did not fall into the cult trap, but others did.

How did a hard core, solid right-wing conservative like Liz Cheney not fall in line? Others who are/were historically staunch conservatives/Republicans who decided not to get on the bandwagon like George Will, David Brooks, Mitt Romney, John McCain, Adam Kinzinger, My late father…. Etc… Recall: More than 81 million folks voted for Joe Biden. Trump only got 77 million votes in his 3rd go around.

Over 2/3rds of eligible voters DID NOT VOTE for Trump. Perhaps Trump has not lost any voters as you say, but for sure has not picked up any votes from the 2/3rds.

So if the cult is going to take their misery out “on us”, it won’t end well for them. 1/3 using the other 2/3rds as a whipping post has never worked out in the past and it’s not about to in the future.

Granted, it may take a while for the tide to turn (I may not see it in my lifetime) but turn it will.
 
Centerpiece said:
I guess that’s where we get terms like “cutting one’s nose off to spite one’s face”
Or, “shooting yourself in the foot”
And other similar idioms.

I find it more interesting to learn how millions did not fall into the cult trap, but others did.

How did a hard core, solid right-wing conservative like Liz Cheney not fall in line? Others who are/were historically staunch conservatives/Republicans who decided not to get on the bandwagon like George Will, David Brooks, Mitt Romney, John McCain, Adam Kinzinger, My late father…. Etc… Recall: More than 81 million folks voted for Joe Biden. Trump only got 77 million votes in his 3rd go around.

Over 2/3rds of eligible voters DID NOT VOTE for Trump. Perhaps Trump has not lost any voters as you say, but for sure has not picked up any votes from the 2/3rds.

So if the cult is going to take their misery out “on us”, it won’t end well for them. 1/3 using the other 2/3rds as a whipping post has never worked out in the past and it’s not about to in the future.

Granted, it may take a while for the tide to turn (I may not see it in my lifetime) but turn it will.
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Oh it will turn for sure but that will not happen democratically. I have been saying for almost a decade now that people do not understand the Trump MAGA phenomenon and I still stand by that. They now have cemented power. They will not yield it. They are terrified of voters for good reason and will use every lever to make sure they never end up on the wrong side of the power dynamic.
 
wmheel1287 said:
Trump has not lost a single voter and will not. You are correct that the pain is just now being felt and that should terrify you. As the pain ratchets up, Trump voters will not blame Trump. They will blame us. They will target us. They will take their misery out on us. That is how cults work.
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There's a pretty active facebook message board for people living in the rural, 80 percent Trumper county I grew up in (but no longer live there, thank god). And most of the comments I've seen on there with political topics certainly go along with what you're saying about Trump not losing any support and these people arguing to the bitter end that MAGA and Dear Leader are still right about everything, and that Democrats are to blame for everything that goes wrong in America.

To quote a few MAGA country folks from the message board:

"USAID got defunded. Now, the DNC is broke. Coincidence? NOPE! Democrats were stealing taxpayer money by the Billions to fund their domestic terrorism, woke politics, and Marxist take over of America, while they also got filthy rich. - quoted from another source—- my thoughts Not every democrat is this way… but the ones in power seem to be this way..."

"We ain’t keeping up a bunch of sorry people that won’t work and all these illegal immigrants work for your money like the rest of us that’s what’s wrong with this country. Everybody wants something free too sorry to work. I’ve had to work since I was 16 year old. I don’t complain about it if you’re going to have kids and have something in life you have to work. Period."

"The DemonRats have blocked this CR 13 times. No blaming Republicans this time. 100% Dems fault. Full stop."

"Democrats don't care about the real Americans suffering! Blame Shummer! I don’t want Trump to fold. Americans work hard for our money and I one am tired of our tax money going to someone other than Americans. We need to be more concerned with the homeless and our veterans than illegal aliens!"

And so on. You get the gist. These people will never blame Dear Leader or MAGA for their suffering and benefits getting cut. It's all the fault of "Shummer" and DemonRats for giving all their money away to illegal aliens and letting them take their jobs so they will vote for DemonRats. Accepting the reality of their situation just isn't something the vast majority of these people will ever do.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
There's a pretty active facebook message board for people living in the rural, 80 percent Trumper county I grew up in (but no longer live there, thank god). And most of the comments I've seen on there with political topics certainly go along with what you're saying about Trump not losing any support and these people arguing to the bitter end that MAGA and Dear Leader are still right about everything, and that Democrats are to blame for everything that goes wrong in America.

To quote a few MAGA country folks from the message board:

"USAID got defunded. Now, the DNC is broke. Coincidence? NOPE! Democrats were stealing taxpayer money by the Billions to fund their domestic terrorism, woke politics, and Marxist take over of America, while they also got filthy rich. - quoted from another source—- my thoughts Not every democrat is this way… but the ones in power seem to be this way..."

"We ain’t keeping up a bunch of sorry people that won’t work and all these illegal immigrants work for your money like the rest of us that’s what’s wrong with this country. Everybody wants something free too sorry to work. I’ve had to work since I was 16 year old. I don’t complain about it if you’re going to have kids and have something in life you have to work. Period."

"The DemonRats have blocked this CR 13 times. No blaming Republicans this time. 100% Dems fault. Full stop."

"Democrats don't care about the real Americans suffering! Blame Shummer! I don’t want Trump to fold. Americans work hard for our money and I one am tired of our tax money going to someone other than Americans. We need to be more concerned with the homeless and our veterans than illegal aliens!"

And so on. You get the gist. These people will never blame Dear Leader or MAGA for their suffering and benefits getting cut. It's all the fault of "Shummer" and DemonRats for giving all their money away to illegal aliens and letting them take their jobs so they will vote for DemonRats. Accepting the reality of their situation just isn't something the vast majority of these people will ever do.
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Trump will always have a solid 35-40% base as long as he continues to persecute and hate the same people that they do. When his approval drops to 40 % and less, that suggests he has lost the few GQPers who still live on earth 1.
 
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Dems need to take heed, though, their own approval on the economy is not that great, either. They need to be making a case for their proposals for positive steps to help middle class/working class voters.
 
nycfan said:


Dems need to take heed, though, their own approval on the economy is not that great, either. They need to be making a case for their proposals for positive steps to help middle class/working class voters.
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Looking at modern history, I’m not sure why anyone should believe the GOP is the better party for economic prosperity. Come on, people. Pay attention.
 


But again, a warning for Dems — rejection of Trump by the young’s should not assume that means a return to more centrist or liberal positions, especially for young men. A chunk of young men are more somewhere between some odd libertarian/anarchist to right or even far right of Trump.

Again, the Dems have some work to do to convert some of that youth drop off from Trump I to support for Dems. Some of the Trump support will probably end up disaffected youth who will drop out for the midterm. And some of it is racing to far right extremes. But that still leaves a lot of young people (especially young men) who need convincing that the Dems offer anything other than anti-Trump messaging.

The Dems could use their own version of Newt Gingrich’s Contract with America right about now — a statement of shared party values and a commitment to focus on key economic issues that have broad support. People need to be reintroduced to the CORE of what Democrats stand FOR after years of Trump and MAGA defining them.
 
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