Agreed. Humans rarely survive a fall off the Golden Gate Bridge, which starts at a speed of 0 MPH. A plane falling straight down into the water at a speed of 150 mph is going to kill whoever survived the initial crash. The water temp isn't going to make a meaningful difference.
Note in advance: this is a digression.
1. If you're comparing to a bridge jump, then you should be talking only about the vertical component of the velocity. Google says that the typical landing aircraft has a vertical velocity between 60-180 feet per minute, which is a few mph. I think you divide fpm by about 90 to get mph. Given that copter impacted from the bottom (if I understand correctly), I imagine it would be fine to model the plane as starting with a velocity of zero.
2. The force on impact for a bridge jumper will almost certainly be higher -- even at equivalent speeds -- to the impact force for a person in a plane, even a plunging plane fusilage. I don't know if planes have crumple zones like cars, but all metal crumples. In addition, there are other elements inside the cabin that provide some buffer, like the seat cushion.
The impact force is given by F = delta (mv)/delta(t). Typically, for catastrophic collisions, the delta t term is small -- probably hundredths of seconds, would be my guess. The mass term will cancel out in the analysis, so we can say that F = delta(v)/delta(t). For that reason, small changes in that delta t have big effects. For instance, if the velocity goes from X to 0 in .01 seconds, that would create 10x less force than in .001 seconds. Thus, even something like a seat cushion could make a difference.
In addition, the plane fusilage is unlikely to bounce. It is likely to slow down greatly upon hitting the water, but its vertical velocity is unlikely to go to zero -- i.e. it will sink into the water some upon impact. So even for the plane fusilage, the delta v will be smaller. Think of it like the difference between diving into a pool and cannonballing.
SO: if we are just addressing the lethality of the impact force, the bridge is considerably more deadly than a fall inside a plane. That would be my analysis. My bachelor's is in physics, but it was long ago.
3. More to the point: the data about water temps was introduced onto the thread, IIRC, from news articles interviewing crash experts. It was those experts who talked about the effects of the water temp. I see no reason to question them. If they thought the water temp would be a factor, I'm going to accept that.
The water temp and the fall, of course, only become relevant for people who survive the initial explosion. And my instinct -- backed by no real knowledge -- is that many if not all people were dead from that, given that we saw quite an explosion. If not the heat from the fuel, the shrapnel would do it. And perhaps the copter rotors, depending on how sturdy they are. I have no idea what happens if a copter rotor runs into a plane fusilage, but it seems plausible that the rotor would stand a fair chance of piercing the metal.