Bigs23
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They also beat a 1 seed in Baylor.I think the idea is that NCAA victories are not very predictive, as they are kind of random. For instance, in 22 we had an unusually easy path to the Final Four, given that we played a 15 seed in the Elite Eight.
Regular season results tend to be more predictive year to year (i.e. more stable).
Beating a 15,9, 4, and 1 is a fairly typical trip to a FF.