Biorhythms for UNC @dook: 6:30 Start

[donbosco]

My original question: “So for the moment, did Veesaar drop into the second round after last night’s performance?”

So there are many voices, pundits, talking heads, tweeters, and loons that contribute to that evaluation, which is by it’s very nature at this moment an opinion at worst, an educated judgment at best.

 

[mpaer]

My original question: “So for the moment, did Veesaar drop into the second round after last night’s performance?”

So there are many voices, pundits, talking heads, tweeters, and loons that contribute to that evaluation, which is by it’s very nature at this moment an opinion at worst, an educated judgment at best.

His games against NBA type 7 footers have not screamed "1st round" ?

 

[superrific]

I've not researched this, so what I'm saying here is an impression from casual draft watching over the past few years: guys like Veesaar typically watch their stock drop near the end. If they are projected now as late firsts, they are more likely to dip into second.

I think that's in part because a) teams dream on the skills of the players who are less well rounded perhaps but with a skill or two that promises to be elite; and b) teams watch a lot of film and start poking holes in Henri's (or others similarly situated) game.

IIRC Filipowski dropped to the second round. I think there are a lot of guys ilke that, again on a subjective impression.

It also depends on what teams are looking for. Late first round picks are often held by teams thinking about championships. Which means they are thinking about questions like, "we need to find an answer for Jokic, Wemby and Holmgren." I don't think Henri is that guy. You have to play Wemby and Holmgren physically. Veesaar isn't going to outmuscle either of them, so he's going to end up as highlight fodder against them. I mean, matching up against the best players isn't going to be the only consideration or even primary consideration, but I'm quite sure late first round teams are going to be looking for immediate contributors and I don't know if Henri is that.

A lot will depend on his workouts, imo.

I think Caleb is pretty firmly established as the #4 pick. He could move up to #3 if Peterson falls because of his inconsistent availability. Personally, I'd rather have an ultra-competitor high motor guy like Caleb over Peterson, even if Peterson is more naturally gifted and/or skilled. But the 3 point shot is king,

 

[stankeylegjones]

To be fair, dook outrecruiting us for top talent has been going on for long while. K started his one-and-done machine over fifteen years ago, and Roy never really embraced or wanted that model. We certainly recruited good players, but they were often players who wouldn't go to the NBA right away and would stay for at least a couple of seasons if not longer, like Paige or Jackson or Kendall or Brice Johnson. That's what Roy wanted and we did very well under that system for a long time, even against dook. Scheyer basically inherited that machine and, to his credit, has kept it running full force, and it is a system that is still well-suited to the new NIL and easy transfer era. Roy's system, which relied on players staying and developing if they didn't get playing time right away, isn't so well suited to this new era, which is probably why he retired when he did. Any new UNC coach after Roy would have needed to come up with something new for recruiting players and getting good results. That's not to say that Davis hasn't had his struggles, but I don't think that the system Roy was using would work when players on the bench can easily transfer somewhere else and instantly get more playing time, like VAL at State.

Making the gap between us and them more important to monitor. While they've out-recruited us in the past, Roy was able to keep the gap close and flip it frequently. HD doesn't seem to have us heading in that direction.

 

[SnoopRob]

Yeah, sorry for being vague. I am curious on the gap in performance of our team and them, and how wide of a gap is that compared with the gaps in the past.

 

[Mulberry Heel]

Making the gap between us and them more important to monitor. While they've out-recruited us in the past, Roy was able to keep the gap close and flip it frequently. HD doesn't seem to have us heading in that direction.

Yes, but my point was that the system Roy used basically doesn't exist anymore - it died with easy transfer and NIL payments. Which is likely why he retired when he did (and I don't blame him for doing so, btw). And any new UNC coach after Roy was going to have to develop a new system, while dook under Scheyer was able to keep K's machine humming with few alterations, as that system works well with the new NIL and easy transfer rules. I'm not saying that Davis certainly hasn't had his struggles with finding a new system that provides consistency every season, but any new UNC coach was not going to be able to use Roy's system of recruiting good high school talent and then developing them over 2 or 3 or 4 years into top college players.

 

[stankeylegjones]

Thank you for this, Snoop.
It's clear that Roy, while by most accounts had less talent yearly, he was able to keep the gap close and flip the gap frequently.
We've yet to have a year better than Duke since HD took over, and it doesn't seem like it's going to change anytime soon.

 

[stankeylegjones]

Yes, but my point was that the system Roy used basically doesn't exist anymore - it died with easy transfer and NIL payments. Which is likely why he retired when he did (and I don't blame him for doing so, btw). And any new UNC coach after Roy was going to have to develop a new system, while dook under Scheyer was able to keep K's machine humming with few alterations, as that system works well with the new NIL and easy transfer rules. I'm not saying that Davis certainly hasn't had his struggles with finding a new system that provides consistency every season, but any new UNC coach was not going to be able to use Roy's system of recruiting good high school talent and then developing them over 2 or 3 or 4 years into top college players.

I agree, although Duke did do a good job with retaining talent this year. In any event, it's HD/staff's job to combat this and figure it out. If they can't then the ptb need to look towards finding a group that can.

 

[Calheel]

We've yet to have a year better than Duke since HD took over

 

[Calheel]

We've yet to have a year better than Duke since HD took over

 

[DiehardHeelFan]

Caleb is quicker and can leap higher, but the NBA is so physical these days that Boozer's thickness will be an advantage. Once they start calling offensive fouls again (if they ever do), then maybe Caleb will be able to overtake him -- but currently in the league, the vanguard is slow moves, not fast.

Boozer plays below the rim. That doesn’t hurt him in college. It will to some degree in the NBA.

 

[Icky Mettle]

Thank you for this, Snoop.
It's clear that Roy, while by most accounts had less talent yearly, he was able to keep the gap close and flip the gap frequently.
We've yet to have a year better than Duke since HD took over, and it doesn't seem like it's going to change anytime soon.

Duke was a better team overall in 2022, but we beat them in the two games against them that mattered most, and beating them in the NCAAT also meant we had a better postseason.

We were about equal in 2024, but since we swept them, I think we should get the edge in terms of deciding who was better.

 

[SnoopRob]

To be fair, dook outrecruiting us for top talent has been going on for long while. K started his one-and-done machine over fifteen years ago, and Roy never really embraced or wanted that model.

dook started their OAD model recruiting with the HS class of 2014.

But, yeah, it was certainly a choice they made back then that has paid off now.

Not going after those players on a large-scale basis worked for Roy because he molded players into a team over a number of years, but it's created an adjustment period now that he's gone.

 

[stankeylegjones]

Sorry, I thought it was clear that I was talking about the metrics that Snoop posted.

 

[Bigs23]

dook started their OAD model recruiting with the HS class of 2014.

But, yeah, it was certainly a choice they made back then that has paid off now.

Not going after those players on a large-scale basis worked for Roy because he molded players into a team over a number of years, but it's created an adjustment period now that he's gone.

dook was paying players and their families. I doubt Roy was willing to match that tactic.

 

[Calheel]

Sorry, I thought it was clear that I was talking about the metrics that Snoop posted.

Ask Duke fans if they would prefer their metrics or our results in 2022. Metrics (especially small differences) are just not that big of a deal -- especially compared to a Final Four victory.

UNC fans liked our results better in 2022 and 2024, and liked Duke's results better in 2023, 2025 and 2026 (well, absent something crazy happening over the next four weeks).

 

[Calheel]

Not going after those players on a large-scale basis worked for Roy

Roy went after those players, he just didn't land them. Roy didn't make a decision to focus on multi-year players so much as the decision was made for him. Much like I made the decision not to date Sydney Sweeney.

 

[stankeylegjones]

Ask Duke fans if they would prefer their metrics or our results in 2022. Metrics (especially small differences) are just not that big of a deal -- especially compared to a Final Four victory.

UNC fans liked our results better in 2022 and 2024, and liked Duke's results better in 2023, 2025 and 2026 (well, absent something crazy happening over the next four weeks).

Of course any fan will take a win over a loss. I don't think that is debatable. The point of asking Snoop for the info was to compare the two teams each season.

 

[Calheel]

Of course any fan will take a win over a loss. I don't think that is debatable. The point of asking Snoop for the info was to compare the two teams each season.

I understood you were just referring to metrics, but it was odd to describe that as "We've yet to have a year better than Duke."

 

[SnoopRob]

Roy went after those players, he just didn't land them. Roy didn't make a decision to focus on multi-year players so much as the decision was made for him. Much like I made the decision not to date Sydney Sweeney.

Roy certainly made a choice to prioritize multi-year players, which is a big part of why he didn't get as many of the OADs once that era really kicked off.

Even when Roy recruited highly-rated players, he often went after ones who had a hole in their game (height, athleticism, shot-making) that meant they weren't likely to be OAD. And even when Roy did go after OADs, it was pretty clear they'd have to compete for a starting spot and he wasn't promising the build the team around them as other schools did. Roy saw OADs as the icing on the cake rather than all the ingredients to make the cake.

I have no doubt that Roy could have done better in getting OADs by changing his strategy, but he was unwilling to do so. So he settled for more low 5-stars and 4-stars than the elite 5-stars, but he built a program that would succeed that based around those players with a few elites sprinkled in.