Can someone explain the stock market to me

ChapelHillSooner

ChapelHillSooner

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We have a president elect who most Nobel winning economists have warned us about. This president elect has promised “100, 200, 300% tariffs”. He has promised to round up tens of millions of undocumented workers. He will be surrounding himself with sycophants this time and will have 100% congressional buy-in to enact these plans. He is incapable of admitting being wrong so when these things backfire he will simply double down. Musk has promised to cut the federal budget by 1/3 and admitted that this will cause significant temporary hardships.

Is it just about tax cuts? Is it because the markets are only looking out a couple of months?
 
Part of it is there is always pent up demand for much of anything leading up to a presidential election. Now that the election is over that dam has burst and would have no matter who won IMO. The other part is the market drivers think Trump's presidency will be good for the wealthy and large corporations. The market doesn't care about the long term effects.
 
ChapelHillSooner said:
We have a president elect who most Nobel winning economists have warned us about. This president elect has promised “100, 200, 300% tariffs”. He has promised to round up tens of millions of undocumented workers. He will be surrounding himself with sycophants this time and will have 100% congressional buy-in to enact these plans. He is incapable of admitting being wrong so when these things backfire he will simply double down. Musk has promised to cut the federal budget by 1/3 and admitted that this will cause significant temporary hardships.

Is it just about tax cuts? Is it because the markets are only looking out a couple of months?
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Some of it is the market doesn't like regulation and we're likely to be entering the most aggressive span of deregulation in American history. I wouldn't want to be an antitrust lawyer right now.
 
Deregulation is going to exponentially increase. Financial firms are going to lose lots of restraints.

I do wonder about tariffs and their negative effects.

Anyway, it is going to be an highflying 3 or 4 years…will crash while the next administration is in power….and they will get blamed for it.
 
336Heel said:
Part of it is there is always pent up demand for much of anything leading up to a presidential election. Now that the election is over that dam has burst and would have no matter who won IMO. The other part is the market drivers think Trump's presidency will be good for the wealthy and large corporations. The market doesn't care about the long term effects.
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Pro business vs anti business. Harris proposed an increased corporate tax rate which would end up hurting employment.
 
1. No fear of Dems taxiing unrealized gains on increasing taxes on capital gains
2. Hope for deregulation
3. Traders don't care if it will all go to shit eventually, because they will see (or think they will see) it coming and get their money out
 
ChapelHillSooner said:
We have a president elect who most Nobel winning economists have warned us about. This president elect has promised “100, 200, 300% tariffs”. He has promised to round up tens of millions of undocumented workers. He will be surrounding himself with sycophants this time and will have 100% congressional buy-in to enact these plans. He is incapable of admitting being wrong so when these things backfire he will simply double down. Musk has promised to cut the federal budget by 1/3 and admitted that this will cause significant temporary hardships.

Is it just about tax cuts? Is it because the markets are only looking out a couple of months?
Click to expand...
They don't think Trump will do all that stuff. When he does, the markets will reverse.
 
Historically the stock market almost always goes up the day after election day. Doesn't matter if it's Republican or Democrat who won.

"The three major benchmarks on average have seen gains between Election Day and year-end in the presidential election year going back to 1980, according to CNBC data."

Loading…

www.cnbc.com
 
TitanNC said:
Deregulation is going to exponentially increase. Financial firms are going to lose lots of restraints.

I do wonder about tariffs and their negative effects.

Anyway, it is going to be an highflying 3 or 4 years…will crash while the next administration is in power….and they will get blamed for it.
Click to expand...
I don't think it's going to be a high-flying 4 years, but if it is Republicans will definitely win again in 2028.
 
All those Nobel economists, and Goldman Sachs review that Harris touted compared the two PLANS, if enacted.

Will Trump actually impose 50%+ tariffs on imports?

Will he actually round up all the undocumented inhabitants and send them somewhere?

Will he really give law enforcement an hour or two in the early days guns blazing in inner cities, without arrests, trials or any consequences to law enforcement?

There are always lots of promises. Many never get done. The border wall Mexico paid for? A health care proposal in 2 weeks. Infrastructure bill?
 
lawtig02 said:
Some of it is the market doesn't like regulation and we're likely to be entering the most aggressive span of deregulation in American history. I wouldn't want to be an antitrust lawyer right now.
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The market is mostly for the rich. trump is good to the rich.
Hopefully, the regular people can ride the wave.
 
Financials, Biomeds (except women's health), Tech and Crypto all up big this morning. Deregulation, maintain high new drug prices, and whatever Trump has in store for crypto. Ride the wave but be ready to put a chunk on the sidelines.
 
gtyellowjacket said:
Historically the stock market almost always goes up the day after election day. Doesn't matter if it's Republican or Democrat who won.

"The three major benchmarks on average have seen gains between Election Day and year-end in the presidential election year going back to 1980, according to CNBC data."

Loading…

www.cnbc.com
Click to expand...
Yep. And because Trump won a clear victory, the inferior a prolonged legal battle or J6 event has been avoided.
 
So I have a 401k through my employer - probably not going to retire for 15-20 years - all during the Biden years it's been going up very nicely - at some point in the near future should I move the bulk of the funds into some more conservative funds?
 
Bunch of finance bros knowing they can get away with anything for a few years. It's a temporary euphoria.
 
GoHeelsweeeehoooo said:
So I have a 401k through my employer - probably not going to retire for 15-20 years - all during the Biden years it's been going up very nicely - at some point in the near future should I move the bulk of the funds into some more conservative funds?
Click to expand...
Go find a graph of the history of the S&P 500 and you’ll see that the long term trend is up no matter which party is in power. I advise my conservative family members to do the same thing whenever Democrats win and they have similar fears.
 
Most investment firms value equities using the discounted cash flow method, which heavily weighs future cash flows. A decrease in corporate taxes and deregulation may increase those CFs which increases the value of the stocks which lead to increased buying activities. Overly simplified version.
 
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