Can someone explain the stock market to me

I'm staying with a holistic 120 minus age equities allocation - this includes a conservative estimate for anticipated inheritance (including property).

Gross cliche but perhaps a thread of truth - When everyone else has fear you want to have greed and when everyone else has greed you want to have fear.
 
superrific said:
They don't think Trump will do all that stuff. When he does, the markets will reverse.
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I don't think people properly understand Donald Trumps approach to tariffs. No matter what, he won't do across the board tariffs. He sees tariffs as something to "sell". He will sell each individual product tariff position to the highest (domestic or international bidder). Who wants it more and/or is willing to pay enough to avoid it. We'll end up with a complete mishmash of tariffs / no tariffs exclusively based on how any given tariff will be most beneficial in terms of extracting money and power for Donald Trump. Anyone expecting anything else if fooling themselves.
 
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HeelYeah2012 said:
Go find a graph of the history of the S&P 500 and you’ll see that the long term trend is up no matter which party is in power. I advise my conservative family members to do the same thing whenever Democrats win and they have similar fears.
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Do you advise them that historically the economy and the stock market does better when a Dem is in the White House ?
 
lawtig02 said:
Some of it is the market doesn't like regulation and we're likely to be entering the most aggressive span of deregulation in American history. I wouldn't want to be an antitrust lawyer right now.
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You think Lina Khan has started looking for a new job?
 
Ok, so my retirement has really shot up since the election, but I'm worried that it will take a turn once the deportations start.

I need to understand how to limit my risk of a major downturn. I'm too old to live through another recession or housing crisis type drop.
 
UNCatTech said:
Ok, so my retirement has really shot up since the election, but I'm worried that it will take a turn once the deportations start.

I need to understand how to limit my risk of a major downturn. I'm too old to live through another recession or housing crisis type drop.
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I know you know this but decisions and strategies on things like this are too important to take serious advice here. I would encourage you to find a fee only financial advisor to help you make plans.

www.napfa.org

The National Association of Personal Financial Advisors

Learn more about how fee-only planners and fiduciary advisors work in a client's best interest. Visit the NAPFA site today for more information.
www.napfa.org
 
UNCatTech said:
Ok, so my retirement has really shot up since the election, but I'm worried that it will take a turn once the deportations start.

I need to understand how to limit my risk of a major downturn. I'm too old to live through another recession or housing crisis type drop.
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DogeCoin ;)
 
I think the increase in the M2 money supply resulting from all the "stimulus" has bid the market up. That money ultimately ends up in the hands of the investor class as the paycheck to paycheck folks inevitably spend it. The investor class has to invest it somewhere and a lot of it goes in to the stock market. Holding cash equivalents is unattractive due to inflation. To the extent their products products are needed, publicly held companies have the power to raise prices as needed to maintain profits (and further fuel inflation). Undeveloped land (farms, timberland) has skyrocketed in value also.
 
Ddseddse said:
I don't think people properly understand Donald Trumps approach to tariffs. No matter what, he won't do across the board tariffs. He sees tariffs as something to "sell". He will sell each individual product tariff position to the highest (domestic or international bidder). Who wants it more and/or is willing to pay enough to avoid it. We'll end up with a complete mishmash of tariffs / no tariffs exclusively based on how any given tariff will be most beneficial in terms of extracting money and power for Donald Trump. Anyone expecting anything else if fooling themselves.
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It will be both.
 
The markets probably like that the election is not in any question with a clear winner and no uncertainty
 
Calheel said:
Maybe not Antonin Scalia Law School at George Mason.
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When I was on the job market, I was being recruited by Pepperdine. They saw who I clerked for and thought, this is probably our guy!

It was a buyer's market, and I really didn't want to pass up any interest. Plus, Pepperdine is nice, right? So I almost went for an interview with them. Then I looked at the faculty and it was like a murderer's row of neocons. Like half the Bush DOJ and DHS was there. I realized that I would be so, so unhappy there that I declined.

It's so tiring to hear conservatives complain about the lack of ideological diversity at law schools, when they NEVER hire liberals at their institutions. Of course. It's all grievance for them, all the time, and zero self-reflection.
 
superrific said:
When I was on the job market, I was being recruited by Pepperdine. They saw who I clerked for and thought, this is probably our guy!

It was a buyer's market, and I really didn't want to pass up any interest. Plus, Pepperdine is nice, right? So I almost went for an interview with them. Then I looked at the faculty and it was like a murderer's row of neocons. Like half the Bush DOJ and DHS was there. I realized that I would be so, so unhappy there that I declined.

It's so tiring to hear conservatives complain about the lack of ideological diversity at law schools, when they NEVER hire liberals at their institutions. Of course. It's all grievance for them, all the time, and zero self-reflection.
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Yeah, but that view …

IMG_0786.png
 
ChapelHillSooner said:
We have a president elect who most Nobel winning economists have warned us about. This president elect has promised “100, 200, 300% tariffs”. He has promised to round up tens of millions of undocumented workers. He will be surrounding himself with sycophants this time and will have 100% congressional buy-in to enact these plans. He is incapable of admitting being wrong so when these things backfire he will simply double down. Musk has promised to cut the federal budget by 1/3 and admitted that this will cause significant temporary hardships.

Is it just about tax cuts? Is it because the markets are only looking out a couple of months?
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It’s really pretty simple. The lower the market goes, the greater the risk to the uniparty and its beneficiaries. So fly me to the moon.
 
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