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A policy idea Amodei floated with us is a "token tax": Every time someone uses a model and the AI company makes money, perhaps 3% of that revenue "goes to the government and is redistributed in some way."
- Speed up public awareness with government and AI companies more transparently explaining the workforce changes to come. Be clear that some jobs are so vulnerable that it's worth reflecting on your career path now. "The first step is warn," Amodei says. He created an Anthropic Economic Index, which provides real-world data on Claude usage across occupations, and the Anthropic Economic Advisory Council to help stoke public debate. Amodei said he hopes the index spurs other companies to share insights on how workers are using their models, giving policymakers a more comprehensive picture.
- Slow down job displacement by helping American workers better understand how AI can augment their tasks now. That at least gives more people a legit shot at navigating this transition. Encourage CEOs to educate themselves and their workers.
- Most members of Congress are woefully uninformed about the realities of AI and its effect on their constituents. Better-informed public officials can help better inform the public. A joint committee on AI or more formal briefings for all lawmakers would be a start. Same at the local level.
- Begin debating policy solutions for an economy dominated by superhuman intelligence. This ranges from job retraining programs to innovative ways to spread wealth creation by big AI companies if Amodei's worst fears come true. "It's going to involve taxes on people like me, and maybe specifically on the AI companies," the Anthropic boss told us.
And where else are all those displaced white-collar workers going to get jobs that pay an equivalent amount of money? We've already seen what automation has done to manufacturing jobs, what happens when large numbers of white collar and service industry jobs also disappear? Not a pleasant thought.Good news: AI is going to advance biological research and drug discovery.
Bad news: it is going to replace lots white color jobs if we have enough energy to power it. Anthropic AI folks were discussing the odd upcoming era in which AI would be making business decisions instead of humans, but robots aren't advanced enough yet to implement the AI agent's desires so humans would just be grunts.
A guy at the company where I work has been hand-feeding and fine tuning something Claude oriented which is really impressive and definitely going to make my job much easier and more efficient. If I can be more efficient then they can afford to lay me or my cohorts off.
I need to learn more about the prompt engineering and tuning side for the sake of job security.
I am guy that tries hard to avoid automated self serve check outs at stores. Cause it crushes the damn minimum wage jobs the checkout folks have.......And where else are all those displaced white-collar workers going to get jobs that pay an equivalent amount of money? We've already seen what automation has done to manufacturing jobs, what happens when large numbers of white collar and service industry jobs also disappear? Not a pleasant thought.
Something related to energy (engineering) or Computer Science I guess, or some type of mechanical engineer? It is going to take massive energy to keep all these things running. Then some software/devOps folks MAY still be needed to cobble together the pieces or approve the AI-generated cobbling. Then mechanical engineer to assist the robots as they replace the mechanical parts at the data centers which are doing the white-collar processing when they wear down?I work in a mid-career position in finance (fairly specialized) and I could absolutely see my job completely replaced by AI in 10 years, assuming incremental improvements. I believe this will ultimately lead to UBI, but how does that work in practice? Does the 45-year-old displaced attorney with a $5K mortgage receive enough benefits to service his debt? What should I encourage my 2-year-old to focus on academically? I don't think white collar jobs will exist in 25 years.
America needs to be the land of efficient data-centers... whether that means inexpensive construction/land, cheap energy, or efficient labor to keep them running.jobs? it wont matter once specialized AI gets into the hands of the many nations and people who would love to see an end to America....and theres lots of them.
live day to day.....its just a matter of time
And the rate of change is going to be the doozy. Manufacturing left the piedmont over a period of time and that hurt, but the state of NC has mostly done okay, but can you imagine if if banking or something left Charlotte over a period of just a few years.And where else are all those displaced white-collar workers going to get jobs that pay an equivalent amount of money? We've already seen what automation has done to manufacturing jobs, what happens when large numbers of white collar and service industry jobs also disappear? Not a pleasant thought.
That is interesting, and the comments are interesting too. But the result sounds gloomy even if it happens in 2040 instead of this decade.Kind of a counterweight to Amodei’s gloomy scenarios,, a really thoughtful piece by a guy who is also super close to what’s happening:
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Why I don’t think AGI is right around the corner
Continual learning is a huge bottleneckwww.dwarkesh.com
1. I know this is a hard projection to make, but I'd say it depends considerably on what you think his or her intelligence level will be in 20 years.What should I encourage my 2-year-old to focus on academically? I don't think white collar jobs will exist in 25 years.