I remember you being highly skeptical that Tyler Nickel's stats would last through the season. After 21 games he is averaging 15pts/game, 51% FG, 46% from the 3 pt line, and 84% from the foul line.
Just curious if you feel the same way now after 21 games.
I don't remember what his stats were at the time I made that comment. I do not think he is a 46% 3 point shooter. That's a slightly different analysis, though -- I doubt that because almost nobody is a 46% 3 point shooter. Cam Johnson had a year at about 50% IIRC so it happens, but the odds of any player finishing at more than 45% are low.
I would be absolutely willing to buy that he's a 40% shooter, maybe a little higher. I don't think I ever suggested to the contrary. Amusingly, over his last five games, he's EXACTLY 40%, as if to make my point.
He has a few things going for him that EC doesn't, statistically. First, he's always been an excellent FT shooter -- mid 80s. That's been consistent over four years. Second, he shot close to 40% last year and about 37% the year before that, so 40% is an established level of performance. Third he was a scorer in high school too. So I would bet against him being higher than 45% this year, but at this point, I think it's not very likely he dips below 41, 42% (though I'd have to know about the past and future competition to be very confident).
I don't think there's any doubt that Nickel would be helpful to our team this year. Unfortunately, there was no path for him to get here from where he was as a freshman. He did the right thing for himself by transferring.
I think EC would be helpful for our team this year, but that's mostly because Evans has zero confidence right now. I also think he would be less of a liability on defense because we have better rim protection -- but again, hindsight. What I've read is that few people expected Caleb to be as dynamic defensively as he has been. Overall, I think Caleb has exceeded expectations by quite a bit.
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