Congress Catch-All

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I see this as a very good thing for Dems. Johnson is an incredibly weak Speaker. This makes it highly likely the House will be wracked with dysfunction and embarrassment for the first part of Trump's presidency.


President-elect Donald Trump endorsed House Speaker Mike Johnson on Monday ahead of the new Congress convening to elect a speaker later this week.

“The American people need IMMEDIATE relief from all of the destructive policies of the last Administration. Speaker Mike Johnson is a good, hard working, religious man. He will do the right thing, and we will continue to WIN. Mike has my Complete & Total Endorsement. MAGA!!!,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social.
 
The Republicans can literally only lose two votes in the House in the first several months of this Administration. Good luck!
 

Trump "... needs the House to elect a speaker on Friday in order to move forward with certifying the presidential election results — and sources close to Trump note that his Johnson endorsement partially stems from an interest in no delays to the election certification.

“He can bury [Johnson] whenever he wants,” one person close to Trump told Semafor.

“Get through Jan. 20, get rolling on the border, rack up some wins, and then use the bully pulpit in full force from there on out.”

Notably, Trump backed Johnson at the end of a lengthy Truth Social post about his own presidential win and highlighted that voters “need IMMEDIATE relief from” the current administration. ,,,"
 

"...
  • The House make up will be 219 Republicans to 215 Democrats on Friday since former Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL) resigned.
  • All Democrats will vote for Rep. Hakeem Jefferies (D-NY), so that means if just two Republicans vote for someone other than Rep. Mike Johnson (R-LA) the House will fail to elect a speaker.
  • Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) has already said he won’t back Johnson. Reps. Chip Roy (R-TX) and Scott Perry (R-PA) won’t say how they’ll vote.
  • The Democrats won’t save Johnson this time. That means he’ll need a partisan majority to remain Speaker.
  • House Republicans did not have a stable majority in the last Congress and it seems unlikely they’ll have one this Congress either.
  • That means whoever becomes Speaker will need to use the suspension process — and thus bargain with Democrats — to move must-pass legislation. The House will almost function like a coalition government. ..."
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I will be a bit stunned if the GOP doesn't hold their collective nose and re-elect Johnson as Speaker ... for now. I mean, i could see a shot across-the-bow no vote to get rules in place to be able to push him out later, if need be, but I do think they'll come to their senses and try to get their governance rolling rather than start with a big, nasty family fight.

Of course, they've done it to themselves a few times already, so I guess we shall see.
 
For the Dems, remember who we are dealing with here:

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on Thursday night bragged about blocking President Barack Obama’s attempt to fill federal judicial vacancies for two years. Then, he laughed about it as he discussed the Republican Party’s effort to stack the courts with conservative judges under President Donald Trump.
“I was shocked that former President Obama left so many vacancies and didn’t try to fill those positions,” Fox News host Sean Hannity said to McConnell.
Obama didn’t leave those vacancies so much as he was blocked from filling them by a GOP-controlled Senate led by McConnell ― something the majority leader was quick to point out.
“I’ll tell you why,” he said. “I was in charge of what we did the last two years of the Obama administration.”

Then, he laughed:

McConnell not only blocked federal judges, he prevented Obama’s Supreme Court nominee Merrick Garland from even getting a hearing. In 2018, McConnell told Kentucky Today that the decision to block Garland’s appointment was “the most consequential decision I’ve made in my entire public career.”

 
Also posted a longer passage in the Mass deportation thread, but more broadly relevant here:


Republicans’ real immigration dilemma: How big to go in Congress​


“… The GOP is preparing to take up an infusion of border security money as soon as this month, but it hasn’t settled on how broadly to craft that bill. There’s a twist: To get an immigration bill done without a filibuster, Republicans may need to bend or even break some of the Senate rules.

… To get it to Trump’s desk without having to seek Democratic votes or changing Senate precedent, however, the GOP will need to limit any policy changes they add to their bill — a central tenet of the filibuster protections they plan to use.

… “I’ve heard rumors that there is going to be a movement to pressure Senate Republicans to overrule the parliamentarian in order to enact policy in reconciliation,” retiring Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, I-Ariz., told Semafor.

Sinema warned that doing so would be “a backdoor elimination of the filibuster, and very dangerous.”

While the filibuster-proof reconciliation rules are designed to limit bills to fiscal policy only, Republicans have plenty of reasons to want to push the boundaries.

Their biggest motivation is the staying power of laws: Trump will have broad sway over many executive actions on immigration, but President Joe Biden dismantled some of Trump’s first-term moves, and a future Democratic president could do the same. …”
 

Johnson doesn’t have the votes to remain speaker. But his allies insist it’s trending his way.​

Donald Trump has restated his backing, and some holdouts have indicated they plan to back Johnson on Friday.


“… In addition to Gosar, Rep. Warren Davidson (R-Ohio), a close ally of Judiciary Chair Jim Jordan (R-Ohio), said on Thursday that he’s backing Johnson, noting that “Trump wants Speaker Johnson.” Incoming Rep. Brandon Gill (R-Texas), who is likely to join the Freedom Caucus, also pointed to Trump’s backing, saying “Mike’s the guy.”

The speakership vote will be the first test of House Republicans’ ability to unify this year, as they hope to achieve ambitious legislative goals on the border, energy and taxes with full control of Congress and the White House. As the Johnson drama shows, Trump’s backing doesn’t necessarily mean Republicans can pass their priorities, given an incredibly narrow margin in the House and a wide ideological range among GOP lawmakers.

Still, Johnson and his allies are putting Trump at the center of their two main arguments as they try to sway the holdouts.

First, they point out that a messy, drawn-out speaker's race risks a delay in certifying Trump’s presidential win on Jan. 6.

Second, if Republicans are consumed with trying to iron out their own leadership it overshadows the start of the second Trump administration, right at a time when leaders want to look unified.

In recent weeks, Trump has privately warned GOP lawmakers against doing anything that takes away from the start of his second presidency, according to one GOP lawmaker who has spoken with him, granted anonymity to speak frankly.

And his allies are also pointing out the conference has the same problem it did after former Speaker Kevin McCarthy was ousted, when Johnson first rose to the perch. All the potential alternatives — such as Majority Leader Steve Scalise, GOP Whip Tom Emmer (Minn.) and Jordan — still have problems that would prevent them from getting the requisite votes. Even some of Johnson’s skeptics acknowledge it’s a significant problem. …”
 


“… acknowledgement of our 129 year most consequential Presidential Election!!”???
 
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