Economic News | Fed will wait and see about rate cuts

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altmin said:
www.forbes.com

Rolling Consumer Boycotts Stalk Amazon, Target And Tesla

Forbes’ expert contributors consider how renewed consumer activism may affect retail giants and could give small businesses new opportunities to win customers.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com

Consumer activists have launched rolling economic boycotts of Target, Amazon and other recognizable companies in recent weeks to protest DEI rollbacks and policies seemingly aimed at appeasing the Trump administration. The outcome of these campaigns hinges on how deeply the companies feel their effects and whether consumers can find suitable alternatives.

The People's Union USA, a consumer advocacy group organizing many of the boycotts, has set its sights this week on Nestlé, for what the group's founder John Schwarz says is the company's failure to address allegations of toxic ingredients and unethical business practices. This action follows calls to boycott retailers Amazon and Target for rollbacks to their diversity, equity and inclusion initiatives.


Nestlé did not immediately respond to a request for comment.


Meanwhile, anger toward the electric vehicle maker Tesla has boiled over as public antipathy toward its CEO, Elon Musk, seems to have grown since he became the Trump administration's chief cost-cutter.


These consumer initiatives may indicate the start of a "Great Rejection," which is gaining momentum online to stop spending on nonessential goods, Greg Petro, Forbes Investing contributor, says.
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Wow...I've been boycotting Nestle for at least 40 years. Never spent a dime in Wal-Mart either. No Domino's or Chic-fil-A either. No big deal just a thing to do.
 
ChileG said:
Worst compared to the rest of the world for last almost 50 years.

For those who voted for Trump - this is bad. I know Fox News will somehow spin this as good, but trust me on this one - this is bad and 100% on Trump and those who voted for him.
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Biden’s policy immediately allowed the US to outpace every other economy during the COVID recovery. Trump immediately creates the polar opposite effect.

Many, many posters have predicted this since last summer, when trump started talking about tariffs, nonstop. Not a single magabot has changed tune, aside from the relative absence of Yeah. Fwiw, I was mildly more knowledgeable of the economic impacts of this policy schema than a layman (have a finance degree, though that ain’t economics)- then I read and listened.

Are any of you willing to learn? Or does that require too much humility?
 
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altmin said:
These consumer initiatives may indicate the start of a "Great Rejection," which is gaining momentum online to stop spending on nonessential goods, Greg Petro, Forbes Investing contributor, says.
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From the Forbes article: "Meanwhile, the housing market—the repository of personal wealth for many Americans—has remained hobbled by high prices and mortgage rates."

How is the repository of personal wealth for many Americans hobbled by high prices?
 
hedge said:
From the Forbes article: "Meanwhile, the housing market—the repository of personal wealth for many Americans—has remained hobbled by high prices and mortgage rates."

How is the repository of personal wealth for many Americans hobbled by high prices?
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High prices and high mortgage rates prevent folks from buying (especially existing homeowners who would usually trading up — the vast middle of the market between entry level homes and luxury properties that have a different market less influenced by mortgage rates). Lack of buyers limits or delays ability of existing homeowners to cash out the value accrued in their property.
 
hedge said:
From the Forbes article: "Meanwhile, the housing market—the repository of personal wealth for many Americans—has remained hobbled by high prices and mortgage rates."

How is the repository of personal wealth for many Americans hobbled by high prices?
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It's an asset that has always had limited liquidity...and that is being greatly exaggerated now. Pricing is high indeed but increasingly there are fewer paths to finding buyers to fulfill those sales. It is a WEIRD housing market out there right now.

Builders are keeping prices elevated by doing HUGE rate buydowns which the builder pays for at closing. Thats the only way they can move inventory. But it fucks with comps somewhat fierce.

As an example, I reviewed a closing statement on a townhouse in Angier last week. Purchase price was $309,000 but the buyer used the builder's lender and the builder bought the rate down on a 30 year FHA note to 4.25% fixed. The builder paid nearly $32,000 to buy that rate. That means the true cash price of the home should be 277,000. Here's the kicker....builder won't sell it to you for a penny less than $309,000 even if you're paying cash. If you offered them 295k cash (which is a MUCH better net for them), they will turn it down because that comp ruins their ability to sell the next 150 in the neighborhood for $309k and higher. So they, like every other builder, will continue this shell game and slowly increase pricing while building their own comps for the marketplace.

However, homeowners can't compete with that because the bulk buydowns available to a builder with 300 lots arent there for individual sellers and the best they can buy the rate down to is a couple % higher than what the new construction offers.

It is a mess and it is getting worse.
 
wmheel1287 said:
It's an asset that has always had limited liquidity...and that is being greatly exaggerated now. Pricing is high indeed but increasingly there are fewer paths to finding buyers to fulfill those sales. It is a WEIRD housing market out there right now.

Builders are keeping prices elevated by doing HUGE rate buydowns which the builder pays for at closing. Thats the only way they can move inventory. But it fucks with comps somewhat fierce.

As an example, I reviewed a closing statement on a townhouse in Angier last week. Purchase price was $309,000 but the buyer used the builder's lender and the builder bought the rate down on a 30 year FHA note to 4.25% fixed. The builder paid nearly $32,000 to buy that rate. That means the true cash price of the home should be 277,000. Here's the kicker....builder won't sell it to you for a penny less than $309,000 even if you're paying cash. If you offered them 295k cash (which is a MUCH better net for them), they will turn it down because that comp ruins their ability to sell the next 150 in the neighborhood for $309k and higher. So they, like every other builder, will continue this shell game and slowly increase pricing while building their own comps for the marketplace.

However, homeowners can't compete with that because the bulk buydowns available to a builder with 300 lots arent there for individual sellers and the best they can buy the rate down to is a couple % higher than what the new construction offers.

It is a mess and it is getting worse.
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That’s very interesting.
 
Just as a reminder for our red-feathered friends --

Trump’s Economic Promises Timeline​



8/9/24:“Starting on day one, we will end inflation and make America affordable again, to bring down the prices of all goods.”
NBC Montana, Trump Rally in Bozeman, MT, YouTube (August 9, 2024).
8/14/24“Under my administration, we will be slashing energy and electricity prices by half within 12 months, at a maximum 18 months”
“Prices will come down. You just watch: They’ll come down, and they’ll come down fast, not only with insurance, with everything.”
PBS NewsHour, Trump Rally in North Carolina, YouTube (August 14, 2024).
8/17/24“Starting the day I take the oath of office, I will rapidly drive prices down and we will make America affordable again. We’re going to make it affordable again.”
“We’re going to get your energy prices down. We’re going to get your energy prices down by 50%.”
PBS NewsHour, Trump speaks at campaign rally in Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania, YouTube (August 17, 2024).
9/5/24@ 10:56 “We will bring our auto-making industry to the record levels of 37 years ago, and we’ll be able to do it very quickly through tariffs and other smart use of certain things that we have that other countries don't.”
@ 18:05 “Energy is going to bring us back. That means we’re going down and getting gasoline below $2 a gallon, bring down the price of everything from electricity rates to groceries, airfares, and housing costs.”
@ 48:04 “We will eliminate regulations that drive up housing costs with the goal of cutting the cost of a new home in half. We think we can do that.”
NBC News, Trump Addresses Economic Club Of New York, YouTube (September 5, 2024).
9/18/24“While working Americans catch up, we’re going to put a temporary cap on credit card interest rates. We can’t let them make 25 and 30%.”
Former President Trump Campaigns in Uniondale, New York, C-SPAN (September 18, 2024).
9/29/24“We're going to get the prices down. We have to get them down. It's too much. Groceries, cars, everything. We're going to get the prices down. While working Americans catch up, we are going to put a temporary cap on credit card interest rates at 10%. People are being made to pay 25%. Temporary ban.”
Speech: Donald Trump Holds a Campaign Rally in Erie, Pennsylvania, Roll Call (September 29, 2024).
10/1/24:“Starting on day one, we will end inflation and make America affordable again. We’ll do that. We’ve got to bring it down.”
PBS NewsHour, Trump delivers campaign remarks in Waunakee as vice presidential debate set to begin, YouTube (October 1, 2024).
11/04/24“A vote for Trump means your groceries will be cheaper”
Former President Trump Campaigns in Pittsburgh, C-SPAN (November 4, 2024).
12/12/24“I can’t guarantee anything. I can’t guarantee tomorrow”
Time Staff, Read the Full Transcript of Donald Trump’s 2024 Person of the Year Interview With TIME, TIME (December 12, 2024).
1/5/25“We must secure our border, unleash American energy, and renew the Trump tax cuts, which were the largest in history, but we will make it even better - There will be no tax on tips. It will all be made up with tariffs, and much more, from countries that have taken advantage of the U.S. for years.”
Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump), X (January 5, 2025, 9:11PM).
1/7/25“We’re going to have prices down- I think you’re going to see some pretty drastic price reductions.”
Associated Press, Trump holds a press conference at Mar-a-Lago, YouTube (January 7, 2025).

doggett.house.gov

Trump’s Economic Promises Timeline

doggett.house.gov doggett.house.gov
 
www.theguardian.com

US dollar ‘at risk of confidence crisis’ as Trump tariffs rattle global markets – business live

Ursula von der Leyen says tariffs a ‘major blow’ to world economy, as US dollar falls to six month low after US President Trump’s ‘liberation day’
www.theguardian.com www.theguardian.com

U.S.-based employers announced 275,240 job cuts in March, driven by Elon Musk’s slashing of the Federal government.

Consultancy firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas have reported that job cut announcements rose 60% month-on-month, and were 205% higher than in March 2024.

That’s a record high for any March, and the third-highest monthly total ever recorded.

Of that total, 216,670 were due to “DOGE Actions” – Musk’s campaign to improve government efficiency by making drastic cuts to government bureaucracy.

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...-the-grim-return-of-slash-and-burn-government
 

Oil slides on fears tariffs will hurt global growth​

Brent crude has now plunged by 5.8% so far today to $70.61 per barrel.

US crude is being hit even harder, down 6% at $67.34 per barrel.
 
Today is rough, but not enough to price in a recession - yet:

GIFT LINK 🎁 —> https://www.wsj.com/finance/investi...f3?st=Safpk6&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink

“… Yet, while the market is moving fast to price in a higher chance of recession, it is far from fully prepared.

The S&P 500 is only down 10% from its all-time high and back to where it stood in September. Usually in recessions, stocks eventually fall at least 20% and give up far more than six months of gains. The S&P is still valued at close to 20 times forecast earnings, too, which would surely be unsustainable in a recession.

The same goes for junk bonds. Higher-quality junk, where most bonds are issued, has barely been hit so far, and even those rated CCC and lower which are closest to default are only back to their September levels. Spreads will probably widen further, but in actual recessions, when defaults are expected to spike, spreads could easily soar to double the current level, bringing huge losses.

… We can get more granular. Before Wednesday evening’s tariff announcement, stock options implied about a 10% chance of recession over the next year based on a measure used by Pimco, which looks at the implied probability of valuations dropping below 15 times earnings. Interest-rate derivatives implied about a 15% chance of recession, measured as the chance of rates being below 1.75% in two years’ time. Neither is a surefire measure; after the dot-com bubble, valuations took years to return to more normal levels, despite the recession. Tariff-induced inflation could also limit the Fed’s room to slash rates in a downturn.

Treasury yields haven’t actually fallen all that much. The 10-year is off 0.7 percentage points from its high earlier this year. But it has had bigger falls over such a period three times in the past two years. Two of those times, they ended up dropping more than a percentage point. …

Since recessions commonly cut rates by three points or more, a much bigger fall in yields would be needed if recession became a certainty. Unless, of course, stagflation prevents the Fed cutting—but that would mean the economy, stocks and corporate bonds would suffer even more.

For now, markets think the Fed will look through the tariffs and cut even as the new taxes push up prices.

… Markets think this is likely: The chance of a rate cut next month priced into futures doubled to 20% after the new tariffs, according to CME FedWatch, and three or more cuts are expected by the end of the year.

Investors who think the return to tariffs higher than the 1930 Smoot-Hawley rates will hammer the economy into recession should expect much bigger falls in stocks and bond yields as the year goes on.

Those who think the rest of the world won’t retaliateand that Trump will quickly negotiate the rates away can be happier with the still-high levels of prices. But they still ought to worry about the damaging effects of prolonged uncertainty on the economy.“
 


Reminder — Trump-run companies have filed bankruptcies six times:


Also

“… Trump Shuttle Airlines failed after two years, with a plane crashin the first two months. Trump Mortgage lasted a year and closed in 2007 due to the fact that Trump’s hired executive, E.J. Ridings, significantly inflated his resume.

Trump Steaks failed, Trump Magazine failed, GoTrump.com failed, Trump The Game failed, Trump Vodka failed.

Trump University failed with a $40 million lawsuit from the New York Attorney General. …”

theticker.org

Donald Trump’s failed business ventures indicate lack of economic knowledge - The Ticker

In the 2024 election, nine in 10 registered voters said that the economy was one of the top issues—and as the election results show, voters trust Donald Trump to handle things. But why? Throughout his career, Trump has poured money into countless failed ventures, which should raise questions...
theticker.org
 
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