Economic News Thread | Consumer Confidence declines

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I learned a bit of a hard lesson this past November as it pertains to economic sentiment. I was so confident about how so many of the macroeconomic indicators showed that the economy was booming (unemployment at record lows, stock market at record highs, wage growth outpacing inflation, etc.) that I didn't allow myself to consider that the microeconomics for so many people would be the Dems' undoing. As I've shared previously on the board, I grew up pretty poor- SNAP, free lunch at school, etc.- but I've been fortunate to be blessed with economic prosperity now in my 30's. Over essentially the last decade since I graduated from UNC, I've gone from having to basically choose between putting gas in the gar to get to work at my first two jobs working $7.25/hour, or buying groceries. Now I don't even notice the total at the gas pump or at the grocery store checkout. I've gone from eating out at restaurants maybe two or three times per year growing up (always around birthdays) to eating out every day for lunch when I'm not on the road for work. I've gone from having a checking account that I used to overdraw, one that would routinely have single-digit dollars on the day before pay day, to having savings accounts and investment accounts with six-figures in them.

I say all of that to say that I am a bit ashamed that I had apparently forgotten how it is to live paycheck-to-paycheck with grim economic prospects. So when I was touting the historically low-unemployment rates, or the historically-high stock market, or the wage growth outpacing inflation- but forgetting that the economy simply still does not work well for far too many of our fellow Americans- I was definitely doing the Democratic Party for whom I was advocating a disservice. It's easy to feel like everything is great for everyone when you can pull up your healthy savings and investment accounts on your $1,000 smart phone on your way to drop $30 on a random weekday lunch like it's no big deal, but I definitely learned that I need to be more understanding- instead of dismissive of -the plight of so many folks who are hurting economically.
 
4thgenheel said:
you're kidding. that's insane, lmao.
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In the interest of complete honesty, that is not an exact quote, but they are more than setting up blaming Biden by talking it up that his so-called bad policies are carrying over into Trump's term and if a recession hits, that is the cause.
 
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korgguy1971 said:
In the interest of completely honesty, that is not an exact quote, but they are more than setting up blaming Biden by talking it up that his so-called bad policies are carrying over into Trump's term and if a recession hits, that is the cause.
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Funny. To whatever extent sitting Presidents’ actions and policies have impacted the economy, I don’t know if there’s ever been a more direct and obvious link between a sitting President’s actions and policies and what is happening with the economy right now.
 

The Mounting Case Against U.S. Stocks​

Worries about a trade war, signs of flagging growth and splinters in the AI trade are pressuring U.S. shares​


GIFT LONK 🎁 —> https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/...9d?st=inq7JE&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink

“
A new round of recession fears rattled markets Monday, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 1000 points and eroding Wall Street consensus that U.S. stocks would be among this year’s biggest winners.

Many investors had anticipated that American exceptionalism—the perceived advantages the U.S. has over other countries, such as its economic strength and technological innovations—would help drive another year of robust stock gains.

But worries about a trade war, signs of flagging growth and splinters in the artificial-intelligence trade have taken some of the shine off that optimism. President Trump over the weekend refused to rule out a recession this year, setting off a fresh wave of declines in U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 fell 3%, while tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost more than 4.5%. Bank stocks slid, along with shares of smaller companies perceived to be sensitive to the economy. Bonds rallied.

“This is the first time we’ve had an administration pretty much say with a straight face… the objectives are going to cause pain,” said Shelby McFaddin, investment analyst at Motley Fool Asset Management.

While the U.S.’s strength is in question, other countries are ramping up efforts to revive their economies. China has unleashed more stimulus to meet its economic growth target. Germany announced a spending splurge on its military and infrastructure.

Markets were rattled after Trump’s tariffs on goods from China, Canada and Mexico took effect, sparking swift retaliatory action. Stocks, bond yields and oil prices tumbled, with investors scrambling to assess the possible implications of a trade war on the U.S. economy. …”
 
nycfan said:

The Mounting Case Against U.S. Stocks​

Worries about a trade war, signs of flagging growth and splinters in the AI trade are pressuring U.S. shares​


GIFT LONK 🎁 —> https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/...9d?st=inq7JE&reflink=mobilewebshare_permalink

“
A new round of recession fears rattled markets Monday, sending the Dow Jones Industrial Average down more than 1000 points and eroding Wall Street consensus that U.S. stocks would be among this year’s biggest winners.

Many investors had anticipated that American exceptionalism—the perceived advantages the U.S. has over other countries, such as its economic strength and technological innovations—would help drive another year of robust stock gains.

But worries about a trade war, signs of flagging growth and splinters in the artificial-intelligence trade have taken some of the shine off that optimism. President Trump over the weekend refused to rule out a recession this year, setting off a fresh wave of declines in U.S. stocks. The S&P 500 fell 3%, while tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite lost more than 4.5%. Bank stocks slid, along with shares of smaller companies perceived to be sensitive to the economy. Bonds rallied.

“This is the first time we’ve had an administration pretty much say with a straight face… the objectives are going to cause pain,” said Shelby McFaddin, investment analyst at Motley Fool Asset Management.

While the U.S.’s strength is in question, other countries are ramping up efforts to revive their economies. China has unleashed more stimulus to meet its economic growth target. Germany announced a spending splurge on its military and infrastructure.

Markets were rattled after Trump’s tariffs on goods from China, Canada and Mexico took effect, sparking swift retaliatory action. Stocks, bond yields and oil prices tumbled, with investors scrambling to assess the possible implications of a trade war on the U.S. economy. …”
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“… Investors had largely brushed off Trump’s inflammatory policy promises, including his pledge to levy aggressive tariffs on major U.S. trading partners, betting they were negotiation tools that wouldn’t be implemented.

Now, the expected ramifications of tariffs, which many investors fear could reignite inflation and break the economy’s resilient streak, has some worried that the case for American exceptionalism isn’t as sound as they expected. For many investors, the dizzying sequence of events is also a sign of the uncertainty that lies ahead.

… “The desire to believe in American exceptionalism is very strong,” said Matt Rowe, head of portfolio management at Nomura Capital Management. “The reality is that if we’re doing everything on our own, everything is going to be a lot more expensive.” …”
 
“… Natural-gas futures rose 2.1% Monday to end at $4.491 per million British thermal units, their highest close since prices were falling from the peaks reached in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine and jolted power markets.

The heating and power-generation fuel is now 155% more expensive than a year ago and climbing sharply at a time of year when it usually declines.

The latest weather forecasts suggest the worst of winter is past and that gas demand for heating is in seasonal decline. Normally that would lead to lower gas prices.

But bearish supply-and-demand fundamentals are taking a back seat lately to trade tensions with Canada, which are driving prices higher, analysts and traders say.

By bidding up gas futures, traders are betting that domestic fuel will be substituted for more expensive—and potentially unavailable—supply from Canada.

Trump's proposed tariffs, which have been paused until next month, would add 10% to the cost of Canadian gas purchased in the U.S.

Meanwhile, Ontario Premier Doug Ford on Monday initiated a 25% retaliatory surcharge on electricity sent over the border and said he hasn't ruled out cutting off those exports.

The surcharge will affect roughly 1.5 million households and businesses in New York, Michigan and Minnesota, though it's unclear exactly how much of the added cost, and when, it will show up in U.S. utility bills. …”

 
Well, on the bright side, I reckon if the GOP can hold up their usual end of the bargain and get us one more good recession before 2032 during these peak wealth accumulation years, maybe that will be enough to get me to FI. Markets crashing during a GOP administration and subsequent recovery during the succeeding Democratic one is how every generation of early retirees has done it since the 1990s. Thank u 4 ur service President Trump!

*this is sarcasm*
 
Funny how the Biden economy was killing it until right as Trump took office. Somehow ole Joe not only turned the economy around, but he also set up a land mine for his successor. All while being comatose. Not bad for a corpse.
 
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“…Wall Street had its worst day of 2025 on Monday, with the S&P 500 index falling 2.7 percent a day after President Trump refused to rule out that his aggressive trade policies could cause a recession. The sell-off came as the Canadian province of Ontario put in place retaliatory tariffs on energy it exports to Michigan, Minnesota and New York, and as Mr. Trump’s trade war with China intensified with Beijing responding to his tariffs by imposing levies on American farm products.…”
 
I think the media likes to compartmentalize issues like "arbitrary arrest of lawful residents" and "the economy is crashing" as if they are separate. I don't think they are.

1. Obviously the economic uncertainty and the tariffs and the firings are the proximate cause for much of the current downturn.
2. BUT, one of the advantages of the US economy has always been the country's commitment to the rule of law. It's one thing for Trump to pardon people corruptly. That's bad but it doesn't necessarily weaken confidence in the economy.

However, the most recent punitive measures would give anyone pause. Why would you invest when:

1. The EPA is trying to steal back $20B from climate groups who already received an award validly;
2. Student loan repayment programs are being used to target political dissent;
3. Trump is going after law firms who have done nothing but represent people Trump doesn't like
4. The government is breaking or terminating contracts left and right?

So with this backdrop, stories like the Columbia student being arbitrarily detained (with Rubio promising more targeted illegal detentions) have to be having some effect on the economy. It's obviously not going to be a single person's detention that will make a huge difference (though if Biden or Harris are arrested, the world economy will probably implode). But these stories add up. They are telling a story about the sudden elimination of the rule of law.

3. SOOO, when Trump took aim at the CHIPS Act, I suspect that's causing a lot of indigestion. It's not because anyone thinks it will actually be repealed (there are definitely not 60 votes in the Senate for that; there are very likely not 50; and it's doubtful it could pass the House). It's because they fear Trump trying to claw back money already given, or target these firms in other ways. According to the Times,

"Chip company executives, worried that funding could be clawed back, are calling lawyers to ask what wiggle room the administration has to terminate signed contracts, said eight people familiar with the requests."

It's all related. The best we can hope for, I think, is a gradual unwinding of the US government as the implicit guarantor of international financial commitments. That will probably damage the economy long-term, but a non-gradual unwinding will cause a Great Depression v.2.0.

The election of Trump in 2024 is going to go down in history as one of the most consequential own-goals. Time will tell if it will rival the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, or the German invasion of the Soviet Union.
 
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