Economic News | Trump removes Fed Gov Cook

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nycfan said:
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🎁 —> https://www.wsj.com/economy/america...c?st=8DaTXP&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

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A year ago, homes in my neighborhood were never on the market for more than a week and several were sold for more than the asking price after a bidding war.

My wife, children, and grandchildren "pressured" me to agree to buying a one level house in Hillsborough where they live which is a 20 minute from where we live today Their concern was that my spinal stenosis and living in a 3 story house was "too risky" to be going up and down the stairs.

Because I am a beta male and have lived by the " happy wife, happy life " credo we bought the house in Hillsborough. Knowing this was not a good time to be selling in this uncertain chaotic economy, I still thought our house would sell within a week or two.

It has not sold so I am now the not proud owner of two houses. I told the missus and the kids we have no problem waiting a year or two, but it may mean spending the kid's inheritance.

My older daughter said she didn't care about her inheritance
My younger daughter said " You aren't spending mine ! " :giggle: She has all of my bad traits and I laughed saying that I would have been disappointed if she had said otherwise.

Sorry for the long story; the short story is that, yes, the market sucks for home sales.
 
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White House says jobs surging among U.S.-born. Here’s what economists say.​

A quirk in survey calculations is muddying the data on just how immigration policies are upending the labor market.


“… “Right now we’re seeing American workers are being put first — native-born workers account for all of the job growth, and that’s key,” Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer said this month on Fox Business. “The American worker is going to win in this occasion because the president has their back.”

… But so far, economists on both sides of the aislesay, they have seen no evidence that American-born workers are picking up jobs vacated by immigrants. They also say figures for native- and foreign-born workers should not be used to gauge the current state of the labor force.

“Looking at the number of native-born workers is not the correct way to read the jobs report,” said Jed Kolko, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a former Commerce Department economist….”

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nycfan said:

White House says jobs surging among U.S.-born. Here’s what economists say.​

A quirk in survey calculations is muddying the data on just how immigration policies are upending the labor market.


“… “Right now we’re seeing American workers are being put first — native-born workers account for all of the job growth, and that’s key,” Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer said this month on Fox Business. “The American worker is going to win in this occasion because the president has their back.”

… But so far, economists on both sides of the aislesay, they have seen no evidence that American-born workers are picking up jobs vacated by immigrants. They also say figures for native- and foreign-born workers should not be used to gauge the current state of the labor force.

“Looking at the number of native-born workers is not the correct way to read the jobs report,” said Jed Kolko, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a former Commerce Department economist….”

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“…

The funky math behind counts of native-born workers​

Looking at BLS-reported counts for July, it appeared that more than 2 million native-born workers had joined the labor force over the past year. The number of foreign-born workers, meanwhile, appeared to have fallen by 237,000.

Trump officials have touted that statistic. E.J. Antoni, Trump’s nominee to lead the BLS, also posted the figure on X this month, after the latest jobs numbers came out.



But BLS and census officials warn against using that data to draw conclusions about population counts — or comparing it with figures from previous years. Doing so would be “a multiple-count data felony,” Kolko wrote this past week.
One big reason is that the data is hemmed in by a population estimate set by the Census Bureau in January, before anyone had any idea how immigration enforcement was going to play out.

Basically, the number of foreign-born and native-born workers have to add up to a total based on the census estimate, according to several economists consulted by The Post. As a result, any drop in foreign-born workers artificially boosts the number of native-born workers reported each month….

… As an extreme illustration, Kolko said that if the entire foreign-born population vanished at the end of July, this dataset would show the population of native-born residents skyrocketing by tens of millions of people.

… In addition, the government’s data surveys rely on self-reporting. Economists note that immigrants nervous about their status could be reporting that they are native-born, which could also skew the numbers….”

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superrific said:
Why does it matter whether European companies list in Europe or the US?
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Theoretically, it can create a capital drain spiral - the fewer companies listing on an EU market discouraging future companies from doing so, which can cause the valuations of the already listed companies to decline as well.

I think Europe is already freaking about failing to develop AI start-ups, which I think is the source of the concern.
 
nycfan said:
Theoretically, it can create a capital drain spiral - the fewer companies listing on an EU market discouraging future companies from doing so, which can cause the valuations of the already listed companies to decline as well.

I think Europe is already freaking about failing to develop AI start-ups, which I think is the source of the concern.
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I mean, maybe, but 1) that violates even weak form efficiency and 2) the companies' HQs and facilities don't have to move. It's just a stock listing. The capital still goes to/stays with Europe.
 
nycfan said:
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🎁 —> Economic Data Has Taken a Dark Turn. That Doesn’t Mean a Crash Is Near.
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“
At the moment, the American economy feels a little bit like a hot August afternoon. The air is heavy and still, as lightning flashes on the horizon. The storm could sweep through and leave destruction in its wake. It could set in for a brief drizzle.

Or it could pass by in the distance, and take its fury elsewhere.

In this very humid metaphor, the electricity in the sky is the steep tariffs that President Trump has now imposed on most goods coming into the United States. It’s also his strict immigration curbs, mass firings of government employees and the pullback in government spending.

Economists have been waiting for that multifaceted storm system to start showing up in the economic data. The signs are now unmistakable, but the severity of the impact remains unclear.…”

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Obama was bashed from the right as a socialist/ communist for that (and from the populist left for being a capitalist pig looking out for the big guys instead of the little guys).
 
nycfan said:


Obama was bashed from the right as a socialist/ communist for that (and from the populist left for being a capitalist pig looking out for the big guys instead of the little guys).
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Well, if I recall correctly, the feds only had preferred stock and no voting power. It wasn't a control play; it was a "they have nothing to exchange for this support except equity" play.

More importantly, the idea of governments taking ownership stakes in corporations is centuries old. China's economy is built on it. Plenty of European countries have ownership stakes in big industry. France is the largest shareholder in Airbus; Germany the largest shareholder in Deutsche Telecom; Spain has large ownership stakes in many of its big companies.

And of course, and this is probably why she is dancing around it -- Russia is famous for having large equity stakes in its big companies.
 




“… While Lutnick said earlier on CNBC that the U.S. does not want to tell Intel how to run its operations, any investment would be unprecedented and ramps up a new era of U.S. influence on the big companies. In the past, the U.S. has taken stakes in companies to provide cash and build confidence in times of economic upheaval and uncertainty.

…The two sources said Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is also involved in the CHIPS Act discussions, but that Lutnick is driving the process. The Commerce Department oversees the $52.7 billion CHIPS Act, formally known as the CHIPS and Science Act. The act provides funding for research and grants for building chip plants in the U.S.

Lutnick has been pushing the equity idea, the sources said, adding that Trump likes the idea….”
 
nycfan said:
“
At the moment, the American economy feels a little bit like a hot August afternoon. The air is heavy and still, as lightning flashes on the horizon. The storm could sweep through and leave destruction in its wake. It could set in for a brief drizzle.

Or it could pass by in the distance, and take its fury elsewhere.

In this very humid metaphor, the electricity in the sky is the steep tariffs that President Trump has now imposed on most goods coming into the United States. It’s also his strict immigration curbs, mass firings of government employees and the pullback in government spending.

Economists have been waiting for that multifaceted storm system to start showing up in the economic data. The signs are now unmistakable, but the severity of the impact remains unclear.…”

timelapse weather GIF
Click to expand...
I see Target sales continue to decline and its stock is down 10% in the pre-market this morning.

Could Target be a bell weather for future declines in consumer spending ?

I also see Home Depot did not have a very good quarter.
 
nycfan said:

White House says jobs surging among U.S.-born. Here’s what economists say.​

A quirk in survey calculations is muddying the data on just how immigration policies are upending the labor market.


“… “Right now we’re seeing American workers are being put first — native-born workers account for all of the job growth, and that’s key,” Labor Secretary Lori Chavez-DeRemer said this month on Fox Business. “The American worker is going to win in this occasion because the president has their back.”

… But so far, economists on both sides of the aislesay, they have seen no evidence that American-born workers are picking up jobs vacated by immigrants. They also say figures for native- and foreign-born workers should not be used to gauge the current state of the labor force.

“Looking at the number of native-born workers is not the correct way to read the jobs report,” said Jed Kolko, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a former Commerce Department economist….”

IMG_8907.jpeg
Click to expand...
Let me be clear, this comment is NOT directed at the person who posted it. I'm glad that NYCFan posted it and I genuinely thank her for her probably futile effort to keep people like me and other old farts at least minimally grounded in reality as to current events. But that said, . . ., any article that has a headline that starts with "White House says . . ..", I'm just going to assume that for all intents and purposes this is the "Brave New World" speak for "Once upon a time . . .." And I do realize that the article is actually a debunking of the Soma the White House is passing out to the MAGA faithful. Does this mean that the Washington Post has finally pulled its backbone from wherever they stored it away about a year ago?
 
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