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heelinhell said:
You have a choice at this point :

Ride the stock market sugar high with the rate cuts coming from the Fed this month ?
Prepare for the real economy that is likely to sink into a recession some time next year ?

If you want to preserve capital then move to cash
If you are young enough to recover from a market decline that you will suffer in the inevitable recession next year, then you could take a risk to ride the sugar high this year.

I am 73 years old and have been 50% in cash since Trump won the election. Until the "surge" in the stock market of late my cash outpaced the market. I will stay with 50% in cash knowing I will likely miss out on the market rocket ride over the next few months. That said, I do entertain the FOMO but have resisted that impulse throughout my investing life :cool:
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I'm 57, so I don't want the risk of a recession. I'm not sure if I could wait it out.
 
UNCatTech said:
I'm 57, so I don't want the risk of a recession. I'm not sure if I could wait it out.
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Depending upon when you plan to retire and under a normal economic cycle you could probably ride out a normal recession or even a Bush great recession where investments recovered over 2 years thanks to Obama.

The wildcard is how much havoc our economically clueless president will impact the economy over the next 3 years...and maybe longer

I retired in 2007 at 55yo to help the missus be the day care center for our newborn grandson. The stock market was cooking !

I remember when the economy crashed I sat down with the missus and let her know I may have to go back to work. I decided to hunker down and stay with my investments and pray that Obama would save the economy and that our investments would recover. Thankfully, as always, a Democratic president rescued America and I didn't have to come out of retirement and my investments recovered.

Today the stock market may start cooking, but I'm not confident that another Democratic president will be coming to rescue America in 2028 so I'm holding on to my cash and hoping I won't have to take it in a wheelbarrow down to the ABC store to buy a half gallon of vodka.
 
FWIW I work for a small company in a supposedly recession proof business. By the end of this week there will be only 5 people on payroll. Myself, my coordinator, two other graphic artists and the owner of the company. The coordinator works part time.

This time last year there were 8 more people on the payroll.
 
nycfan said:

Inflation Jumped Again In August As Interest Rate Meeting Looms​


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www.forbes.com

Inflation Rose Again In August. Here’s What To Know.

The Federal Reserve meets next week to decide whether to lower interest rates for the first time since December.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com
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After the PPI report I thought there could be a 50 bps rate cut, but with inflation rising , I'm guessing it will be a 25bps cut with a wait and see if future rate cuts are warranted.

That said, with indications that we are on the path to slowing GDP growth, higher unemployment, and higher inflation, I would be interested in what TylerKong thinks about the possibility of stagflation going into next year.
 
altmin said:
FWIW I work for a small company in a supposedly recession proof business. By the end of this week there will be only 5 people on payroll. Myself, my coordinator, two other graphic artists and the owner of the company. The coordinator works part time.

This time last year there were 8 more people on the payroll.
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Has efficiency brought about the downsizing or has it been a reduction in business?
 
www.nytimes.com

Trump Live Updates: Latest News on 9/11 Memorials, Lisa Cook and More

www.nytimes.com www.nytimes.com

The Trump administration on Thursday asked a federal appeals court to allow it to move ahead with firing Lisa Cook from the Federal Reserve’s Board of Governors, in an attempt to block her from taking part in the central bank’s meeting on interest rates next week.

The government filed its emergency request with the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia, two days after a lower court temporarily prevented President Trump from carrying out his plan to fire Ms. Cook over allegations that she falsified records on her mortgage applications.
 
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