Economic News

  • Thread starter Thread starter nycfan
  • Start date Start date
  • Replies: 2K
  • Views: 122K
  • Politics 
altmin said:

  • Private companies added just 77,000 new workers for the month, well off the upwardly revised 186,000 in January and below the 148,000 estimate, ADP reported.
  • The report reflected tariff concerns, as a sector that lumps together trade, transportation and utility jobs saw a loss of 33,000 positions.
Click to expand...
This is astounding, but also entirely predictable. It really shows the lie behind Elon's implications when he wants to take out government spending out of GDP. He thinks he's hitting the government; he apparently doesn't realize that he's hitting the private sector even harder.

It's not just tariff concerns, of course. That's a big part of it, but economic uncertainty in general is paralyzing. What is going to happen to consumer demand with 500K laid off federal workers? What is going to happen to my receivables from organizations that have their funding cut off and are probably going to go under? These are not conditions in which companies will hire. The tariffs are probably the biggest component, but not the only one.

Again, the month-over-month is jarring. The economy was strong in January. Trump has decimated it in one month.
 
superrific said:
This is astounding, but also entirely predictable. It really shows the lie behind Elon's implications when he wants to take out government spending out of GDP. He thinks he's hitting the government; he apparently doesn't realize that he's hitting the private sector even harder.

It's not just tariff concerns, of course. That's a big part of it, but economic uncertainty in general is paralyzing. What is going to happen to consumer demand with 500K laid off federal workers? What is going to happen to my receivables from organizations that have their funding cut off and are probably going to go under? These are not conditions in which companies will hire. The tariffs are probably the biggest component, but not the only one.

Again, the month-over-month is jarring. The economy was strong in January. Trump has decimated it in one month.
Click to expand...
They cant (or won't see) that every dollar spent by government has ripple effects through the private sector, which in turn flows into the populace. Of course people like trump and Elon want it to flow into their own accounts.
 
altmin said:
They cant (or won't see) that every dollar spent by government has ripple effects through the private sector, which in turn flows into the populace. Of course people like trump and Elon want it to flow into their own accounts.
Click to expand...
Well, not every dollar. But certainly the dollars of salaried employees who lose their jobs.

Economists often talk about multiplier effects, which is basically a measure of the stimulative or contractionary effect of different policies. The favored stimulus measure for Pubs, tax cuts, has a very low but positive multiplier. Tapering defense spending over a couple of years would have a negative multiplier, but it would be low in absolute value.

Mass firing of employees is one of the most negative multiplier policies that an administration could pursue. Wouldn't surprise me if these policies have a multiplier as significant as minus two.
 


“Eight of the 12 Federal Reserve districts reported flat or slightly negative growth in February, according to the central bank’s Beige Book survey, released Wednesday. Six districts reported no change in activity while two saw slight contractions.

Overall, activity across the country rose “slightly,” the report said, while employment only “nudged slightly higher.” …”
 
ChapelHillSooner said:
I really think that this entire thing is going to be a massive wealth transfer from the right to left. That is aside from the creation of American oligarchs.

People in the left and center get what is going on. They have an understanding of the significant risks. People on the right are in a cult and are not going to make solid financial decisions.

On various subreddits I have noticed those who still hold out hope that their stocks will be fine are MAGA types. (You can tell by looking at their comments on other subreddits.)

Once those people start to realize the shit storm we are in it will be too late. Stocks will crash hard at that point.
Click to expand...
You may well be right, although I do think that cutting federal funding is going to hurt a lot of liberal researchers, doctors, scientists, and the like, and I think MAGA Nation isn't going to stop using the government to go after liberals in various professions. I do think you're absolutely right that Trump's base - especially the non-college educated, rural ones - are going to likely suffer the most. Trump doesn't care about them beyond their votes, he's often expressed contempt for them in private conversations that were later leaked, and if they struggle he's just going to shrug as long as they stick with him.
 
Saw that Bessent is still trying to blame Biden for the negative impact of Trump's terrible economic policies. This entire administration has severe BDS.
 
European markets (especially Germany) and China are on a tear. U.S. markets now flat over Trump regime. Investors have fooled themselves into believing that Trump's tariffs are all bluffs and bluster, so far.

MAGAts are generally dumb and manipulated.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
You may well be right, although I do think that cutting federal funding is going to hurt a lot of liberal researchers, doctors, scientists, and the like, and I think MAGA Nation isn't going to stop using the government to go after liberals in various professions. I do think you're absolutely right that Trump's base - especially the non-college educated, rural ones - are going to likely suffer the most. Trump doesn't care about them beyond their votes, he's often expressed contempt for them in private conversations that were later leaked, and if they struggle he's just going to shrug as long as they stick with him.
Click to expand...
That is a good point. I don’t want to minimize the direct impact on people. I very well could lose my own job in the coming months.

I was thinking about the investment side only.
 
Mulberry Heel said:
You may well be right, although I do think that cutting federal funding is going to hurt a lot of liberal researchers, doctors, scientists, and the like, and I think MAGA Nation isn't going to stop using the government to go after liberals in various professions. I do think you're absolutely right that Trump's base - especially the non-college educated, rural ones - are going to likely suffer the most. Trump doesn't care about them beyond their votes, he's often expressed contempt for them in private conversations that were later leaked, and if they struggle he's just going to shrug as long as they stick with him.
Click to expand...
Because no matter how bad off they are, at least they're white, straight and "Christian."
 

US employers cut more jobs last month than any February since 2009​



“… US-based employers last month announced plans to slash 172,017 jobs, a 103% increase from January and the highest February total since 2009, according to Challenger, Gray & Christmas’s latest monthly job cuts report released Thursday.

… It’s the 12th highest monthly total in the 32 years Challenger has been tracking job cuts. The 11 others (four came during the Covid-19 pandemic) all occurred when the US was in a recession, Challenger data shows.

The largest share of job cut announcements came in the government sector, where the newly formed Department of Government Efficiency has axed jobs, slashed federal spending and scrapped contracts.

By Challenger’s count, there were 62,242 announced cuts across 17 federal agencies. That’s a 41,311% increase from the 151 cuts announced through February 2024, Challenger noted.

The DOGE effect was not limited to the public sector: Downstream impacts, such as the loss of funding for private nonprofits, led to another 894 cuts, according to the report.

… Outside of the government, the next largest cuts were in retail (38,956), technology (14,554) and consumer products (10,625).

Thursday’s report is “something to be concerned about,” said Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, noting that the government cuts accounted for one-third of the overall announced layoffs. …”
 

Treasury Yields Take a Blow from ADP Jobs Report​


Treasury Yields Take a Blow from ADP Jobs Report

The 10-year Treasury yield pared gains, pressured by weaker-than-expected U.S. private employment numbers.
www.wsj.com www.wsj.com

“… Weaker-than-expected U.S. private employment numbers add downward pressure on Treasury yields. ADP says employers added 77,000 jobs last month, compared to consensus forecast of 148,000 in a Wall Street Journal survey.

January figure was revised to 186,000 from 183,000. Annual pay was up 4.7% from a year earlier. Small business shed 12,000 jobs. February national payrolls are due Friday. Yields have been trending lower amid signs of economic cooling. Tariffs have added to the risk-off wave. …”
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top