Economic News

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heelinhell said:
Without question the Biden economy was the envy of the world and handed over on a silver platter to Trump

Prior, Obama handed a strong economy to Trump, and Biden had to clean up his mess.

Is this coincidence or a pattern ? I am hoping it is a mere coincidence for the sake of my children and grandchildren.
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Pattern. Republican have, on the whole been bad for the economy since before the Great Depression and have stepped up their damage since the early 50s.
 
Given the the June CPI report I think the Fed stands pat on rates for now. The question is whether Trump's threats to implement and actually implement stupid tariffs continues into the fall. If the CPI continues to spike at this rate in July and August, we may see the Fed announce a 25 basis point rate hike as soon as September.
 
finesse said:
Pattern. Republican have, on the whole been bad for the economy since before the Great Depression and have stepped up their damage since the early 50s.
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I'm cautiously optimistic that the aggressiveness and defensiveness of the Trump 2.0 economic plan can break this cycle, at least on the margins. Typically, Pubs plant the seeds of economic catastrophe in the hope they won't germinate for another 5-8 years, at which point the Dems will be back in power and will be blamed for what's sprouting at the time. That's exactly what the Pubs in Congress did with the BBB. But Trump's policies that do not require congressional approval (tariffs, pressure on the Fed, etc.) are so aggressive that their impacts are likely to be felt within the next 1-2 years. Which means he'll still be president and the Pubs will likely be in control of at least the Senate.

If one could be a dispassionate observer of America's economic and political life for the next 3.5 years, the intersection of those two things would be as interesting as any period in recent history. Unfortunately, all of us who live here can't afford to be dispassionate, because we'll be profoundly impacted by it one way or another. This is the chaos MAGA has inflicted upon us.
 


Trump surrogates have signaled an interest in trying to have his new Fed Chair “reorganize” the Fed — so Trump would control it. SCOTUS already signaled once to Trump that they view the Fed as different from other executive agencies they are allowing him to gut (based on technicalities without determining the merits — basically a free pass for Trump to remake the executive branch as he pleases but leaving the option to slam that door behind him if the merits of those cases are eventually decided against the President — then his changes will have been realized and his successor limited in his or her ability to undo that without jumping through hoops that Trump was spared).

In any event, it looks like a battle is brewing and it will be interesting to see if SCOTUS draws the line at POTUS seizing control of the Fed.
 
lawtig02 said:
I'm cautiously optimistic that the aggressiveness and defensiveness of the Trump 2.0 economic plan can break this cycle, at least on the margins. Typically, Pubs plant the seeds of economic catastrophe in the hope they won't germinate for another 5-8 years, at which point the Dems will be back in power and will be blamed for what's sprouting at the time. That's exactly what the Pubs in Congress did with the BBB. But Trump's policies that do not require congressional approval (tariffs, pressure on the Fed, etc.) are so aggressive that their impacts are likely to be felt within the next 1-2 years. Which means he'll still be president and the Pubs will likely be in control of at least the Senate.

If one could be a dispassionate observer of America's economic and political life for the next 3.5 years, the intersection of those two things would be as interesting as any period in recent history. Unfortunately, all of us who live here can't afford to be dispassionate, because we'll be profoundly impacted by it one way or another. This is the chaos MAGA has inflicted upon us.
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The classic poison pill.
 
heelinhell said:
Without question the Biden economy was the envy of the world and handed over on a silver platter to Trump

Prior, Obama handed a strong economy to Trump, and Biden had to clean up his mess.

Is this coincidence or a pattern ? I am hoping it is a mere coincidence for the sake of my children and grandchildren.
Click to expand...

lawtig02 said:
I'm cautiously optimistic that the aggressiveness and defensiveness of the Trump 2.0 economic plan can break this cycle, at least on the margins. Typically, Pubs plant the seeds of economic catastrophe in the hope they won't germinate for another 5-8 years, at which point the Dems will be back in power and will be blamed for what's sprouting at the time. That's exactly what the Pubs in Congress did with the BBB. But Trump's policies that do not require congressional approval (tariffs, pressure on the Fed, etc.) are so aggressive that their impacts are likely to be felt within the next 1-2 years. Which means he'll still be president and the Pubs will likely be in control of at least the Senate.

If one could be a dispassionate observer of America's economic and political life for the next 3.5 years, the intersection of those two things would be as interesting as any period in recent history. Unfortunately, all of us who live here can't afford to be dispassionate, because we'll be profoundly impacted by it one way or another. This is the chaos MAGA has inflicted upon us.
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I think Pubs implement more extreme versions of "trickle down" economics every time they regain power. This isn't to make the economy better, or to make it worse, just to make themselves and their "constituents" (their rich donors, not the people they are supposed to represent) richer. The fact that it almost always ends up hurting the overall economy lets them complain about deficits and debt when Democrats try to clean up the mess.
 


“… The Producer Price Index, which measures the average change in prices paid to producers, was unchanged from May, and the annual rate of wholesale-level inflation slowed 2.3%, helped lower in part because of base effects (where the year-ago period experienced higher inflation).

Economists had expected that prices would rise 0.2% on a monthly basis and 2.5% annually, according to FactSet.

… Although gas prices went up in June, falling services prices — particularly at hotels, airlines and car dealerships — drove the overall index lower. Travel and leisure prices have been lower than they typically are, a potential indication that consumer demand dropped off amid a period of high economic uncertainty.

PPI serves as a potential bellwether for price changes consumers may see in the months ahead.…”
 
If tariff inflation doesn’t ramp up, does Jay Powell’s fed go down as clueless? Remember who initially appointed him.
 
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nycfan said:


“… The Producer Price Index, which measures the average change in prices paid to producers, was unchanged from May, and the annual rate of wholesale-level inflation slowed 2.3%, helped lower in part because of base effects (where the year-ago period experienced higher inflation).

Economists had expected that prices would rise 0.2% on a monthly basis and 2.5% annually, according to FactSet.

… Although gas prices went up in June, falling services prices — particularly at hotels, airlines and car dealerships — drove the overall index lower. Travel and leisure prices have been lower than they typically are, a potential indication that consumer demand dropped off amid a period of high economic uncertainty.

PPI serves as a potential bellwether for price changes consumers may see in the months ahead.…”
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I mean, the top line seems great and all, until you see that demand fell in industries reliant on consumer confidence and discretionary income.
 
Healing said:
I mean, the top line seems great and all, until you see that demand fell in industries reliant on consumer confidence and discretionary income.
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I think all the economic data right now is distorted because of this --


We've been in a TACO market for several months now, but if all the economic strength we're seeing is really a result of US companies building inventories, then I don't see how growth numbers can stay positive over the next few months, regardless of what Trump does with tariffs going forward.

I'm not anything close to an expert in this and I hope I'm wrong, but I just can't find a logical justification for the markets to be where they are right now without a major correction coming in the next six months.
 
lawtig02 said:
I think all the economic data right now is distorted because of this --


We've been in a TACO market for several months now, but if all the economic strength we're seeing is really a result of US companies building inventories, then I don't see how growth numbers can stay positive over the next few months, regardless of what Trump does with tariffs going forward.

I'm not anything close to an expert in this and I hope I'm wrong, but I just can't find a logical justification for the markets to be where they are right now without a major correction coming in the next six months.
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More stimulus coming in BBB.
 
lawtig02 said:
I think all the economic data right now is distorted because of this --


We've been in a TACO market for several months now, but if all the economic strength we're seeing is really a result of US companies building inventories, then I don't see how growth numbers can stay positive over the next few months, regardless of what Trump does with tariffs going forward.

I'm not anything close to an expert in this and I hope I'm wrong, but I just can't find a logical justification for the markets to be where they are right now without a major correction coming in the next six months.
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Racing to build up inventory seems an impossible calculation. Trump likely folds on nearly all these tariffs; that’s what the market’s non-response is essentially predicting. What then? Suppliers have a boatload of inventory in an environment of wavering consumer confidence, persistent 7% interest rates, political unrest, and slow rolling fallout of the worst economic budget bill ever penned?
 
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