Economic News

[lawtig02]

I moved a good chunk of my equity mix into VDIPX when the tariff nonsense started in earnest. I’m quite pleased with how that’s gone.

Yeah, I've shifted a good bit to international equities as well, but this particular fight over Greenland seems to me to threaten those types of funds. But I won't even pretend I have a clue what's the best allocation right now.

 

[Zoo_View]

Yeah, I've shifted a good bit to international equities as well, but this particular fight over Greenland seems to me to threaten those types of funds. But I won't even pretend I have a clue what's the best allocation right now.

Trump crypto-coin

 

[heelinhell]

initial shock, then will bounce back to normal because Wall Street will rationalize anything.

The bond markets is the better predicter of what the future holds. Will the bond markets bounce back ? My guess is no.

 

[lawtig02]

Trump crypto-coin

Well, the BEST strategy is obviously to join Mar-a-Lago and get access to the insider trading tips that are making Trump's friends and family filthy rich. But I haven't quite destroyed enough of my soul yet to go down that road.

 

[nycfan]

 

[nycfan]

Mom & Pop operations with a dozen homes?

 

[heelinhell]

The bond markets will tell you what the future holds...

 

[ChileG]

Yeah, Trump keeps whining about wanting lower mortgage rates but keeps taking actions that keep rates artificially high.
It’s almost as if he is flailing about with no concrete plans, and not this strategic genius his supporters keep believing he is.

 

[BillOfRights]

 

[nycfan]

 

[altmin]

I was wrong about the recovery today. maybe tomorrow.

 

[altmin]

Dollar lower as investors reignite 'Sell America' trade

The dollar was set for its largest daily fall in over a month on Tuesday, after White House threats to Europe over the future of Greenland triggered a broad selloff across U.S. stocks and government bonds, and drove the euro and the pound higher.

www.reuters.com

 

[nycfan]

 

[UNCMSinLS]

Honestly and sadly, we need a lot more of this ^

 

[superrific]

Yeah, I've shifted a good bit to international equities as well, but this particular fight over Greenland seems to me to threaten those types of funds. But I won't even pretend I have a clue what's the best allocation right now.

Yeah, this is the problem with "all correlations go to 1 in a crisis." Emerging markets basically didn't participate in the subprime debacle but they got hit even harder than the US after Lehman's collapse because capital has a flight to quality. And quality has always been defined as US, even when the problem was caused by the US (primarily, though Europe had some fucked up stupidity too).

I model this as a multiple equilibrium game. One could imagine a situation like a default of US debt would actually make US securities -- and even treasuries -- more valuable on the market, for reasons similar to a bank run (i.e. everyone expects others to sell their more volatile holdings and run to the dollar, so everyone does it to be first). One could imagine a situation where the debt default blows up American markets (the more common intuition). I do not know how one would determine which of those outcomes is more likely.

So at the moment, I share your angst.

 

[BillOfRights]

 

[BlueSmoke]

See mortgage rates are headed back up after falling on news that Trump was going to buy 200 billion in mortgage back securities. Its interesting that foreign investors own around 15% of that market. And they don't react too well when Trump does the crap he does like Greenland and tariffs. So he's really just trying to fix his own mess by buying mortgage backed.

 

[ChileG]

Yeah, Trump keeps whining about wanting lower mortgage rates but keeps taking actions that keep rates artificially high.
It’s almost as if he is flailing about with no concrete plans, and not this strategic genius his fanbase want desperately (against all evidence) to believe he is.

 

[nycfan]

 

[nycfan]