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Wasn’t sure where to throw this question, so figured this thread was as good as any.

Anyone who’s getting a tax refund waiting longer than normal? Early next week will be the 21 day window ending for me, and still nothing on the IRS side except “Accepted”. Got my state refund over a week ago, and have never (before now) gotten that before federal. Who would have ever thought cutting a mass number of positions would slow the process down?? Amazing how that works.
I never get a refund and have not filed but I submitted 1099s for all of my independent contractors. Those are normally marked as accepted in a day. It took nearly 3 weeks this year.
 


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“… One reason to be at least a little skeptical about the great January employment report, beyond the Trump administration’s political meddling with the independent agency that oversees such data, is that the economists taking the pulse of the U.S. economy in every corner of the country did not spot any signs of this hiring binge in their most recent report, known as the “beige book.” Instead, the January beige book, compiled from data from all 12 districts of the U.S. Federal Reserve, is replete with examples of companies either halting hiring altogether or hiring only to replace departed employees. (Another constant is the headache caused by higher costs due to the Trump administration’s sweeping tariffs.)

… “The real puzzle is the low hiring rate. It is unusual to have fairly low unemployment and so little hiring, and that is what makes this moment so different than any labor market in decades,” said Kolko, who was previously the undersecretary for economic affairs at the Commerce Department.

Another reason to be underwhelmed by the jobs report is that, when the employment numbers are broken down by sector, it becomes clear that the United States has essentially become a giant health care facility, but is shedding jobs in every other sector of the economy. The only area that showed growth was health care, while sectors such as mining and manufacturing continued to shrink, as they did all last year as well. More than the entirety of all jobs created since Trump returned to the White House are in health care and private education.…”
 


🎁 —>

“… One reason to be at least a little skeptical about the great January employment report, beyond the Trump administration’s political meddling with the independent agency that oversees such data, is that the economists taking the pulse of the U.S. economy in every corner of the country did not spot any signs of this hiring binge in their most recent report, known as the “beige book.” Instead, the January beige book, compiled from data from all 12 districts of the U.S. Federal Reserve, is replete with examples of companies either halting hiring altogether or hiring only to replace departed employees. (Another constant is the headache caused by higher costs due to the Trump administration’s sweeping tariffs.)

… “The real puzzle is the low hiring rate. It is unusual to have fairly low unemployment and so little hiring, and that is what makes this moment so different than any labor market in decades,” said Kolko, who was previously the undersecretary for economic affairs at the Commerce Department.

Another reason to be underwhelmed by the jobs report is that, when the employment numbers are broken down by sector, it becomes clear that the United States has essentially become a giant health care facility, but is shedding jobs in every other sector of the economy. The only area that showed growth was health care, while sectors such as mining and manufacturing continued to shrink, as they did all last year as well. More than the entirety of all jobs created since Trump returned to the White House are in health care and private education.…”

Rosy isn't the word I would have chosen.
 
I feel like the market realized yesterday the unresolvable contradiction with valuations.

> If AI is overhyped, equities are massively overvalued (needs no explanation). Not to mention the data center debt time bomb..
> Otherwise, if AI is not overhyped, once these efficiencies are realized the workforce shrinks dramatically, and with rising unemployment corporate profits take huge hits as people can no longer afford to buy, and valuations plummet.

Either way, seems like we are in for a valuation reckoning.
And precious metals and crypto aren’t the robust backup plans that many thought.
 
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