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The S&P 500 has soared 24% this year, buoyed by artificial-intelligence hype and optimism that lower inflation means less-restrictive monetary policy going forward. Lower interest rates typically encourage risk-taking and help boost stocks, and the Federal Reserve has slashed its benchmark rate twice since September.
But Fed officials are publicly questioning whether further cuts are needed right now as more data point to a strong economy. Derivative traders are currently pricing in several more rate cuts in 2025, and stocks could decline if those don’t come.
The prospect of tariffs has some of Wall Street’s biggest players on edge. Republican megadonor Ken Griffin, a hedge-fund titan and founder of Citadel, told students in the U.K. on Monday that he was “very anxious about the president’s willingness to engage in tariffs as a matter of trade policy,” Bloomberg reported.
Goldman Sachs is projecting a 10% gain for the S&P 500 next year, driven primarily by strong earnings growth. But higher-than-anticipated inflation, and in turn higher rates, is one of the biggest risks to that forecast, said David Kostin, chief equity strategist at Goldman.
“Why might we get higher inflation? It could be from immigration policy changes. It could be from tariffs. It could be from fiscal policy shifts. That’s one area we’re focusing a lot of attention on,” Kostin said. …”