North Dakota farmers are scrambling to find extra storage space and bracing for land values to fall as soybeans that should be bound for China begin to pile up.
www.nytimes.com
For the first time in the history of their 76-year-old operation, their biggest customer — China — had stopped buying soybeans. Their 2,300-acre soybean farm is projected to lose $400,000 in 2025. Soybeans that would normally be harvested and exported to Asia are now set to pile up in large steel bins.
Since President Trump imposed tariffs on Chinese goods in February, Beijing has retaliated by halting all purchases of American soybeans.
That decision has had devastating repercussions for farmers in North Dakota, which exported more than 70 percent of its soybeans to China before Trump unveiled the new tariffs this year. Unless China agrees to restart its purchases as part of a trade deal, farmers that depend on the Chinese market will be facing steep losses that could fuel farm bankruptcies and farm foreclosures around the United States.
China’s reluctance to purchase American soybeans and other agricultural products is expected to be a central topic as top officials from the United States and China meet for another round of economic negotiations in Spain this week.
Those talks are being anchored by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, whom Mr. Trump has put in charge of negotiating and securing a favorable trade deal with China. A win would undoubtedly curry favor with Mr. Trump. But in a strange twist, it could also help Mr. Bessent financially.
The Treasury Secretary owns thousands of acres of North Dakota farmland, worth up to $25 million. The properties grow soybeans and corn in a state that exports most of its agricultural products to China. The investments have earned Mr. Bessent as much as $1 million in rental income annually, according to his financial disclosure filings.
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In Mr. Trump’s first term, Beijing drastically scaled back purchases of American agricultural products to gain leverage in trade negotiations after the president slapped tariffs on Chinese goods. The decision was politically calculated: Farmers tend to live in Republican states that voted for Mr. Trump, so harming them economically threatened a core constituency.
The United States and China ultimately reached a trade deal toward the end of Mr. Trump’s first term, which included a commitment from Beijing to purchase large amounts of American farm products. But it failed to live up to those commitments after the pandemic frayed its relations with the United States.
When Mr. Trump started his second term, his top economic officials promised to protect America’s farming industry as they embarked on tariff fights with China and other nations.
In August, Mr. Trump called publicly for China to step up its purchases of American soybeans in a direct plea to China’s top leader, Xi Jinping.
“Our great farmers produce the most robust soybeans,” Mr. Trump wrote on Truth Social, urging China to quadruple its orders.
The attention from the White House raised hopes among North Dakota farmers that a deal might be near. But no progress has been made. With soybean harvest season just weeks away, they warn that the situation is getting dire.
“I feel like we’re out of time,” said Justin Sherlock, 37, a farmer from Dazey, N.D.
Mr. Sherlock, who is also president of the North Dakota Soybean Growers Association, said that local banks were already starting to tighten their lending terms on farmers. That will make it hard for farms to purchase new equipment next year, further reducing their profitability and increasing the chances of closure.
“If we don’t get a deal in the next few weeks, I think this turns what is hopefully a one-year problem into a multiyear problem,” Mr. Sherlock said.
Mr. Sherlock said the standoff was particularly upsetting given that the United States spent 40 years building its soybean industry around China as its largest customer. “Are we going to lose a generation of farmers because of the trade war? I think that’s what we’re fast approaching.”