Flooding the zone

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lawtig02

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I think what we're seeing right now from Trump 2.0 is a classic flood the zone strategy.


I'll admit, I'm having a hard time not biting on every absurd move he makes, but this is going to be a long four years and we're going to have to figure out what's a feint and what's not.

My best guess so far --

Feints:

1. EO on birthright citizenship, which he knows will be eviscerated by the courts.
2. Territorial expansion.
3. Gaetz and maybe Gabbard.

Real threats:

1. Absolute partisan control of the DOJ and FBI, which will become a Stasi-like organization.
2. Establishing a pattern of ignoring the executive obligation to enforce laws enacted by Congress and upheld by the courts, thus eliminating what remains of our system of checks and balances and consolidating all power in the executive branch.
3. Hegseth, Patel and RFK.

Maybe this thread can be useful to track the feints and the real threats going forward. It will take some work, but I'm convinced we can't defend the threats unless we accurately identify the feints.
 
It will also lead to a loss of confidence in the courts. They question the legality of enough things and his followers will claim, “see, even the courts are against him making progress. Look at them, sitting behind their lifetime appointments!” or some such nonsense.
 
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Updating this based on what we've seen a couple weeks in.

Feints:

1. Tariff threats.
2. Complaints about staffing shortages at the FAA.
3. RFK. Even if he's confirmed, it's becoming clear he won't have any real power in this administration.

Real threats:

1. Elon's unilateral evisceration of the constitutional order, which is concentrating virtually all federal power in the hands of Trump and his unelected, unappointed billionaire supporters.
2. Congressional Pubs' complicity in Elon's unilateral evisceration of the constitutional order.
3. Trump's illogical and unpredictable foreign policy statements and annoyance with the bullshit driving our closest allies into China's hands.

Unknowns:

1. Will the courts hold up?
2. Will the Dems figure out how to operate in this 30-minute media cycle, where the traditional media outlets are always at least 12-18 hours behind?
3. What happens when the reduction in the federal workforce starts impacting the lives of ordinary Americans?
4. Will immigration end up being a feint or a real threat? At the moment, it looks like a feint, as Trump is not really doing anything different than Biden did. But if he really does start deporting larger numbers of people, that will have real economic consequences.
 
Can the country hold on long enough for Democrats to hopefully regain control of the House and possibly the Senate?
 
Can the country hold on long enough for Democrats to hopefully regain control of the House and possibly the Senate?
If you look at the Senate seats open at midterm, you'd almost have to hope that the country isn't in bad enough shape for us to get that back.
 
Updating this based on what we've seen a couple weeks in.

Feints:

1. Tariff threats.
2. Complaints about staffing shortages at the FAA.
3. RFK. Even if he's confirmed, it's becoming clear he won't have any real power in this administration.

Real threats:

1. Elon's unilateral evisceration of the constitutional order, which is concentrating virtually all federal power in the hands of Trump and his unelected, unappointed billionaire supporters.
2. Congressional Pubs' complicity in Elon's unilateral evisceration of the constitutional order.
3. Trump's illogical and unpredictable foreign policy statements and annoyance with the bullshit driving our closest allies into China's hands.

Unknowns:

1. Will the courts hold up?
2. Will the Dems figure out how to operate in this 30-minute media cycle, where the traditional media outlets are always at least 12-18 hours behind?
3. What happens when the reduction in the federal workforce starts impacting the lives of ordinary Americans?
4. Will immigration end up being a feint or a real threat? At the moment, it looks like a feint, as Trump is not really doing anything different than Biden did. But if he really does start deporting larger numbers of people, that will have real economic consequences.
Agree on a lot of this, but How is it becoming clear that RFK Jr won’t have any real power?
 
If you look at the Senate seats open at midterm, you'd almost have to hope that the country isn't in bad enough shape for us to get that back.
If we can start to win over blue collar and rural voters again, we can. And that's what we have to do to win.

I mean we had senators from ND and SD 20 years ago. We had a senator from Montana last year. Make it a war on the rich who are keeping you suppressed...make Elon a demon (he is) and the face of the GOP
 
If we can start to win over blue collar and rural voters again, we can. And that's what we have to do to win.

I mean we had senators from ND and SD 20 years ago. We had a senator from Montana last year. Make it a war on the rich who are keeping you suppressed...make Elon a demon (he is) and the face of the GOP
Yes and that's what we need in the long run. We don't need the national disaster I'm afraid it would take to do it by midterms. You might have noticed a spate of people in the country with learning disabilities.
 
Agree on a lot of this, but How is it becoming clear that RFK Jr won’t have any real power?
Yeah, I should clarify that. First, I use this board to think through some of my more poorly-formed thoughts, so I may be entirely wrong. But if I had to guess right now, a DHHS under RFK would --

1. Focus a lot on healthier foods, which is not bad per se, unless it limits GMO technology that could put the volume of our food supply at risk,
2. Spread a good bit of disinformation about vaccines but not actually limit their availability much, which is not great but ultimately ok with me as long as I can reasonably protect myself and my kids, and
3. Be led by someone other than RFK prior to 7/1/26.

I just don't see him having staying power. He's an absolute joke of a nominee, but I ultimately think his incompetency will limit his ability to achieve the worst case scenario for the department.
 
Updating this based on what we've seen a couple weeks in.

Feints:

1. Tariff threats.
2. Complaints about staffing shortages at the FAA.
3. RFK. Even if he's confirmed, it's becoming clear he won't have any real power in this administration.

Real threats:

1. Elon's unilateral evisceration of the constitutional order, which is concentrating virtually all federal power in the hands of Trump and his unelected, unappointed billionaire supporters.
2. Congressional Pubs' complicity in Elon's unilateral evisceration of the constitutional order.
3. Trump's illogical and unpredictable foreign policy statements and annoyance with the bullshit driving our closest allies into China's hands.

Unknowns:

1. Will the courts hold up?
2. Will the Dems figure out how to operate in this 30-minute media cycle, where the traditional media outlets are always at least 12-18 hours behind?
3. What happens when the reduction in the federal workforce starts impacting the lives of ordinary Americans?
4. Will immigration end up being a feint or a real threat? At the moment, it looks like a feint, as Trump is not really doing anything different than Biden did. But if he really does start deporting larger numbers of people, that will have real economic consequences.
3. Trump's illogical and unpredictable foreign policy statements and annoyance with the bullshit driving our closest allies into China's hands.

This is my chief concern . As we give up our soft power and alienate our allies and countries that have depended upon our political and financial support, we strengthen the hand of China and increase the likelihood that China will replace us as the premier global super power.
 
Yeah, I should clarify that. First, I use this board to think through some of my more poorly-formed thoughts, so I may be entirely wrong. But if I had to guess right now, a DHHS under RFK would --

1. Focus a lot on healthier foods, which is not bad per se, unless it limits GMO technology that could put the volume of our food supply at risk,
2. Spread a good bit of disinformation about vaccines but not actually limit their availability much, which is not great but ultimately ok with me as long as I can reasonably protect myself and my kids, and
3. Be led by someone other than RFK prior to 7/1/26.

I just don't see him having staying power. He's an absolute joke of a nominee, but I ultimately think his incompetency will limit his ability to achieve the worst case scenario for the department.
A counterpoint — Trump’s final pitch before the committee vote on RFK today:



Trump was promoting conspiracy theories about debunked ties between vaccines and autism for several years before he ran for POTUs the first time. RFK Jr continues to do so.

That does not bode well regarding Trump’s view of RFK’s portfolio on the vaccine front.

Also this:


IMG_4871.jpeg

Musk is more anti vaccine mandates than full anti-vaxx but has increasingly spread vaccine disinformation since COVID and promoted freedom to resist vaccination mandates for any reason.
 
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A counterpoint — Trump’s final pitch before the committee vote on RFK today:



Trump was promoting conspiracy theories about debunked ties between vaccines and autism for several years before he ran for POTUs the first time. RFK Jr continues to do so.

That does not bode well regarding Trump’s view of RFK’s portfolio on the vaccine front.

Also this:


IMG_4871.jpeg

Musk is more anti vaccine mandates than full anti-vaxx but has increasingly spread vaccine disinformation since COVID and promoted freedom to resist vaccination mandates for any reason.

Very good points. I may be totally wrong. I'm hoping we can make the feint/real threat distinction an ongoing thing over the next few months. Especially now that we've seen thinks like tariffs, which were a HUGE part of Trump's campaign, are total BS.
 
I mean we had senators from ND and SD 20 years ago. We had a senator from Montana last year. Make it a war on the rich who are keeping you suppressed...make Elon a demon (he is) and the face of the GOP
Politics has become fully nationalized. And while we had senators from those places, they have never been competitive at a presidential level. In an era where ticket splitting is increasingly rare, there's no reason to expect us to win these seats going forward absent weird catastrophes or wave elections.
 
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