General 2028 Election

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lawtig02 said:
Pulling the discussion in the Current Events thread into this one, here's what I've been wondering recently.

1. Assuming we actually have a transfer of power, the US from 2029 through at least 2032 or so is EXTREMELY likely to be a shitshow. Economic catastrophe, international isolation, historically low consumer confidence and public approval of elected officials. Everything Trump is doing right now is borrowing for the present at the expense of tomorrow, which means we're going to have hell to pay in a couple of years.

2. I would almost rather have a Pub presiding over the 2029-2032 shitshow than a Dem, because the Dem will 100% be blamed for things that are not his/her fault.

3. I do not know if we can get to 2032 with an intact nation. If we can, that may be the opportunity for Dems to switch the dynamic and actually benefit from the Pubs' incompetence, rather than being handicapped by it.

4. What encourages me a tiny bit is that while we're clearly slouching towards Gomorrah on a daily basis, everything has not fully collapsed yet.

5. What discourages me is we're still only a little more than 1/8 of the way through this historically catastrophic presidency, and I'm losing confidence we can make it to 2028, much less 2032.
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You and I have talked about this before, and while I share almost all of your anxieties and concerns, I think you continue to underestimate (1) how hard it is for a powerful nation-state like the US to truly "collapse," and (2) even with all the problems we have currently, how far away we really are from that point. I absolutely don't take our country and institutions for granted; nor should anyone. And I also don't want to discount the accelerating role that technology, including AI, could have on what has been the traditional manner in which nation-states collapse. But big picture, the majority if Americans - debatably even the vast majority - are still pretty far away from experiencing the sort of existential hardships that can lead to revolutions, mass domestic unrest, etc. A true "Civil War" would immediately make so many people's lives so much worse that I continue to believe such a thing in the near future is highly unlikely.

And even as it intentionally and stupidly is giving away and undercutting its own influence and power, the US still remains an extremely economically, politically, militarily, and culturally powerful nation on the world stage, one that is almost impossible to conquer militarily (I don't mean that we can't lose battles or wars - I mean in the sense of a hostile power actually trying to take control of the United States).

None of this is meant to downplay the very real danger that we're in, the very real threat from de-democratizing our country and institutions, and the very real hardship that tens of millions of people in our country face. I just think we need to distinguish those sorts of threats, and what they can and will mean, from any true imminent threat of societal collapse, which I continue to believe remains low.
 
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