Has right wing media pushed conservatives further right

[Mulberry Heel]

I think that’s a totally fair and valid point but I think that it’s a little different with the transgender stuff, because even Republicans recognize (and oftentimes have) the need for abortion access, whereas they don’t believe that transgender individuals are really even worthy of basic human rights.

I do worry that when/if the Trump administration goes after transgenders - and I think they will in a big way, given that they see it as a winning issue and that nearly all Trumpers regard them with disgust, fear, and loathing - that Democrats will not defend them out of fear of losing more support, especially given the apparent effectiveness of GOP attacks on Democrats on this issue. As I've already posted on some other threads, if I were a transgender person I'd be terrified right now given what is likely coming down the pike in a few months.

 

[CFordUNC]

I do worry that when/if the Trump administration goes after transgenders - and I think they will in a big way, given that they see it as a winning issue and that nearly all Trumpers regard them with disgust, fear, and loathing - that Democrats will not defend them out of fear of losing more support, especially given the apparent effectiveness of GOP attacks on Democrats on this issue. As I've already posted on some other threads, if I were a transgender person I'd be terrified right now given what is likely coming down the pike in a few months.

Yeah. I reckon as long as they don’t try to play sports, maybe they’ll be alright.

 

[Healing]

Losing on gay marriage still stings for social conservatives. They will never stop on transgender people. They will never be safe from Republicans.

Agree. When your information ecosystem is built on grievance, it’s hard for the hate to fade.

 

[CFordUNC]

My thing about transgender people is that above all else I believe they deserve the exact same human rights as every single other person. I don’t believe that those rights necessarily extend to something like, say, sports participation, but I’m also not obsessive about it. I trust that individual sports leagues and sport governing bodies, rather than the federal government, should make their own determinations. Otherwise, I think that transgender people should be treated with the same considerations as anyone else. My general point on this thread is just that I think it’s very, very clearly a losing political argument for Democrats, and therefore it’s worth abandoning out of necessity- as I said, you can’t govern if you can’t win elections.

 

[Calheel]

1. You're right, we will know more after people who know how to get good data and make sense of it weigh in. That's none of us here.
2. I'm not sure why Trump not campaigning on the economy doesn't tell us much. Here's what I see:

A. Trump runs virulently racist campaign for president in 2016. Wins. People look at the data. It was actually about race, and not about "economic anxiety."
B. Trump runs less virulently racist campaign in 2020. That's because most of the racism was aimed at China and Americans just don't respond to that distant racism nearly as much. Loses, although for a number of different reasons.
C. Trump runs the most vitriolic, racist campaign for president we've ever seen. Spends almost all of his time with incredibly nasty, mean-spirited and outright racist lies that would make Bull Connor blush. Wins, by a bigger margin than 2016.

So I predict that the data is going to show something similar to A in situation C. I don't know it for sure, obviously, but I'll bet that's what we find.

3. I can't comment on your point about Covid shutdowns. nycfan made a similar point some time ago. It's an interesting thought. I'm ill-equipped to evaluate it.

If 45% vote on policy, 40% vote on race/fear, and 15% vote on economic anxiety, what issue decided the race?

What if the 45 and 40 were going to vote democrat and republican no matter what? In that case, the small percentage of 15% economic anxiety is what decided the race. That is really my point. I am sure in raw numbers, the issues you cite were more important to diehard Trump voters. But I think for the true swing voter -- think working class Latino -- economic anxiety was the real motivating factor.

Again, despite the talk of blowouts, this race was decided by roughly 1% of the voting population in three states voting for Trump rather than Kamala. If those 300k people pull a different lever, the result is totally different. And I just don't think Trump's campaign themes moved the needle that much with that demographic. I think 2022 inflation was far more influential.

 

[Mulberry Heel]

Losing on gay marriage still stings for social conservatives. They will never stop on transgender people. They will never be safe from Republicans.

Honestly, I'm not so sure that they've given up on going after gays and lesbians. I think the great majority of conservatives have never accepted gay marriage and they may try to use attacks on transgenders as a wedge issue to go after the entire LGBTQ community. People who say that gay marriage rights are safe are being way too complacent, imo. The Supreme Court could always overturn it under the guise of "restoring" such rights to the states, just as they did with Roe.

 

[farce©]

Absolutely. I think that is Lando’s point.