Hot Stove: UNC Basketball

[UNCMSinLS]

Culture.

What a great scene from a great movie!

 

[Zoo_View]

KM and EC are much more comparable offensively than you seem to think.

Setting aside assists & turnovers for the moment, KM & EC have very, very similar stats there. If EC shot KM's percentages, in a 37 game season he would have...

...hit 1 more 3 (1 more every 37 games).
...hit 7 more 2s (1 more every 5.3 games).
...hit 3 more FTs (1 more every 12.3 games).

Over the course of the season, that's statistical noise rather than any type of significant difference.

Now, back to assists and turnovers. KM played with an absolutely stacked team that was on the shortest of short lists for NC contention until injuries (including KM) derailed that team...who still made the E8 and played KU pretty well in that game despite starting our 3rd string PG. EC played on a team with very, very little inside presence on a team that, without significant injuries, barely made the NCAA tournament. Given the context of the disparities between the teams they played on and the relative talent each team had, the difference in assists and turnovers becomes very context dependent. KM had a wealth of players to pass to who were bucket-getters and EC had a wealth of players to pass to who tended to either pound the leather off the ball or struggled to put the ball in the basket consistently. Without the benefit of a time machine and/or multiple universes at our disposal, we can never know, but I'd bet that if you put a sophomore year EC on that 2012 team he looks a lot more like 2012 KM and if you put a sophomore year KM on our 2025 team he looks a lot more like 2025 EC in terms of assists and turnovers.

In short, I'd argue that KM and EC are much more comparable than they may appear at first glance, albeit with very different strengths and weaknesses.

EC as a SO did not shoot the same percentages as KM. Over 36/37 games, they weren’t that close.

EC didn’t touch or compare to KM in assists or turnovers.

KM swung for the fences on many assists. The thing is, he hit the HR again and again. KM made Zeller and Barnes and Henson and others look better.

Yes, KM played with a better supporting cast than EC did; KM made his supporting cast look much better than EC made his look.

 

[Icky Mettle]

Not sure I’d focus on the fact Cadeau led the league in turnovers. Raymond Felton led the league in turnovers in 2005 with 129 and 2003 with 130. Ed Cota led the league in turnovers in 1997 with 124. James Worthy led the league in turnovers in 1982 with 94. Jay Williams led the league in turnovers all three years of his career with 139, 154, and 131.

Other players who led the ACC in turnovers include:
Randolph Childress - 1995 (124)
Bobby Hurley - 1990 and 1991 (166 and 151)
Danny Ferry - 1987 and 1989 (112 and 115)
J.R. Reid - 1988 (127)
Johnny Dawkins - 1983, 1984, and 1986 (103, 114, and 107)
Len Bias - 1985 (113)

ETA: Cadeau’s A:TO this season was better than Felton’s in 2003 and 2005, better than Cota’s in 1997 and equal to Cota’s in 1999, better than Jay Williams’s every year of his career, better than Randolph Childress’s every year of his career, and obviously way better than anyone I listed above who was not a guard.

It was also better than Joel Berry’s during his first 3 years and equal to Berry’s during his senior year. It was better than Coby White’s. It was better than Kenny Smith’s during his senior year as well as his freshman year.

 

[Calheel]

Did Cadeau say he was open to returning and hadn't met with Coach Davis or Jim Tanner yet? I also read he placed the "do not contact" tag on his portal entry.

Do not contact just means "go through agent".

 

[LosPollosHermanos]

Not sure I’d focus on the fact Cadeau led the league in turnovers. Raymond Felton led the league in turnovers in 2005 with 129 and 2003 with 130. Ed Cota led the league in turnovers in 1997 with 124. James Worthy led the league in turnovers in 1982 with 94. Jay Williams led the league in turnovers all three years of his career with 139, 154, and 131.

Other players who led the ACC in turnovers include:
Randolph Childress - 1995 (124)
Bobby Hurley - 1990 and 1991 (166 and 151)
Danny Ferry - 1987 and 1989 (112 and 115)
J.R. Reid - 1988 (127)
Johnny Dawkins - 1983, 1984, and 1986 (103, 114, and 107)
Len Bias - 1985 (113)

That's a 40+ year long list with some of the best players in ACC history. Show me the other 35 years. EC isn't doing what those boys did other than pass. If you score 25+ or reboound consistently nobody cares. When you can't shoot, rebound or defend your A/TO ratio better be damn near perfect.

 

[Icky Mettle]

That's a 40+ year long list with some of the best players in ACC history. Show me the other 35 years. EC isn't doing what those boys did other than pass.

I added some info to my post above regarding A:TO. I’ll include it at the bottom of this post as well.

Anyway, no Cadeau’s not as good as any of those players I mentioned. But focusing on his turnovers doesn’t tell the story that you think it does, particularly when you look at his A:TO compared to other quality point guards.

Cadeau’s A:TO this season was better than Felton’s in 2003 and 2005, better than Cota’s in 1997 and equal to Cota’s in 1999, better than Jay Williams’s every year of his career, better than Randolph Childress’s every year of his career, and obviously way better than anyone I listed above who was not a guard.

It was also better than Joel Berry’s during his first 3 years and equal to Berry’s during his senior year. It was better than Coby White’s. It was better than Kenny Smith’s during his senior year as well as his freshman year.

 

[Centerpiece]

Not sure I’d focus on the fact Cadeau led the league in turnovers. Raymond Felton led the league in turnovers in 2005 with 129 and 2003 with 130. Ed Cota led the league in turnovers in 1997 with 124. James Worthy led the league in turnovers in 1982 with 94. Jay Williams led the league in turnovers all three years of his career with 139, 154, and 131.

Other players who led the ACC in turnovers include:
Randolph Childress - 1995 (124)
Bobby Hurley - 1990 and 1991 (166 and 151)
Danny Ferry - 1987 and 1989 (112 and 115)
J.R. Reid - 1988 (127)
Johnny Dawkins - 1983, 1984, and 1986 (103, 114, and 107)
Len Bias - 1985 (113)

ETA: Cadeau’s A:TO this season was better than Felton’s in 2003 and 2005, better than Cota’s in 1997 and equal to Cota’s in 1999, better than Jay Williams’s every year of his career, better than Randolph Childress’s every year of his career, and obviously way better than anyone I listed above who was not a guard.

It was also better than Joel Berry’s during his first 3 years and equal to Berry’s during his senior year. It was better than Coby White’s. It was better than Kenny Smith’s during his senior year as well as his freshman year.

With the stats!

 

[LosPollosHermanos]

I added some info to my post above regarding A:TO. I’ll include it at the bottom of this post as well.

Anyway, no Cadeau’s not as good as any of those players I mentioned. But focusing on his turnovers doesn’t tell the story that you think it does, particularly when you look at his A:TO compared to other quality point guards.

Cadeau’s A:TO this season was better than Felton’s in 2003 and 2005, better than Cota’s in 1997 and equal to Cota’s in 1999, better than Jay Williams’s every year of his career, better than Randolph Childress’s every year of his career, and obviously way better than anyone I listed above who was not a guard.

It was also better than Joel Berry’s during his first 3 years and equal to Berry’s during his senior year. It was better than Coby White’s. It was better than Kenny Smith’s during his sens to the tior year as well as his freshman year.

A/TO may not tell the whole story, but as I said, every player you mention brings so many other things to the table with the possible exception of Cota. If assists is basically your entire game, you don't get the leeway Randoplh Childress does averaging 25 pts. and making every clutch shot.

 

[Icky Mettle]

A/TO may not tell the whole story, but as I said, every player you mention brings so many other things to the table with the possible exception of Cota. If assists is basically your entire game, you don't get the leeway Randoplh Childress does averaging 25 pts. and making every clutch shot.

You also mentioned that he can’t rebound, and while his rebound numbers are not high in general, his 2.9 rpg ranks as one of the higher rpg averages in a season among all UNC point guards ever.

And he certainly needs to work on his 3-pt %, but his % of .337 this season is not significantly worse than Coby White’s (.353), and his overall FG% is actually better than White’s (.445 vs. .423). Nor is it significantly worse than Joel Berry’s senior year 3-pt % (.344) and his overall FG% is better than Berry’s was at any point in his career. Also compare to Marcus Paige’s 3-pt %/overall FG % his senior year (.356/.398), or those numbers for Raymond Felton in his first two years (.358/.398 and .313/.420).

Also, Childress didn’t average 25 ppg, but he did average 20.1, which is really, really good. His overall FG% was worse than Cadeau’s, however. But you also had to respect his 3-point shot (he shot .384 his senior year, and he wasn’t afraid to shoot).

 

[duluoz]

A/TO may not tell the whole story, but as I said, every player you mention brings so many other things to the table with the possible exception of Cota.

Cota Flota > Cadeau Plateau

 

[duluoz]

You also mentioned that he can’t rebound, and while his rebound numbers are not high in general, his 2.9 rpg ranks as one of the higher rpg averages in a season among all UNC point guards ever.

And he certainly needs to work on his 3-pt %, but his % of .337 this season is not significantly worse than Coby White’s (.353), and his overall FG% is actually better than White’s (.445 vs. .423). Nor is it significantly worse than Joel Berry’s senior year 3-pt % (.344) and his overall FG% is better than Berry’s was at any point in his career. Also compare to Marcus Paige’s 3-pt %/overall FG % his senior year (.356/.398), or those numbers for Raymond Felton in his first two years (.358/.398 and .313/.420).

Also, Childress didn’t average 25 ppg, but he did average 20.1, which is really, really good. His overall FG% was worse than Cadeau’s, however. But you also had to respect his 3-point shot (he shot .384 his senior year, and he wasn’t afraid to shoot).

These numbers are mostly misleading. RJ was a more ball-dominant 2-guard than pretty much any of those PGs played with, basically another lead guard… which very often freed up EC to float around and snag long rebounds. There was also no Hansbrough or May or Meeks gobbling up double digit rebounds. Nobody averaged even 6 per game this season.

And the shooting percentages are pretty much all skewed by volume. In your book, is a guy who shoots 10 3’s all year and makes 4 of them a good shooter? He was 6th on the team in attempts. How about Childress? Berry? Come on dude.

 

[Calheel]

These numbers are mostly misleading. RJ was a more ball-dominant 2-guard than pretty much any of those PGs played with, basically another lead guard… which very often freed up EC to float around and snag long rebounds. There was also no Hansbrough or May or Meeks gobbling up double digit rebounds. Nobody averaged even 6 per game this season.

And the shooting percentages are pretty much all skewed by volume. In your book, is a guy who shoots 10 3’s all year and makes 4 of them a good shooter? He was 6th on the team in attempts. How about Childress? Berry? Come on dude.

I agree that raw percentages, when not adjusting for volume, is a misleading shooting statistic.

 

[BlooVooDoo]

He was also 8th in the country in assists. So that is kind of a wash. If he had bigs that could catch, he might have had a few more assists and a few less TOs.

He’s 15th in assists according to ESPN.

 

[Bigs23]

I added some info to my post above regarding A:TO. I’ll include it at the bottom of this post as well.

Anyway, no Cadeau’s not as good as any of those players I mentioned. But focusing on his turnovers doesn’t tell the story that you think it does, particularly when you look at his A:TO compared to other quality point guards.

Cadeau’s A:TO this season was better than Felton’s in 2003 and 2005, better than Cota’s in 1997 and equal to Cota’s in 1999, better than Jay Williams’s every year of his career, better than Randolph Childress’s every year of his career, and obviously way better than anyone I listed above who was not a guard.

It was also better than Joel Berry’s during his first 3 years and equal to Berry’s during his senior year. It was better than Coby White’s. It was better than Kenny Smith’s during his senior year as well as his freshman year.

No need to focus just in the turnovers. The broader examination is even more telling.

 

[finesse]

No need to focus just in the turnovers. The broader examination is even more telling.

I think what I regret is that Cadeau has left a lot of potential untapped. He's physically stronger than you'd think and can play spurts of tough defense. I feel like he's going to have the light come on and be really good once he understands his place better.

In a lot of ways, his career trajectory reminds me of Jimmy Black. Black showed a lot of potential his first two years but did some of the dumbest things on the court. Then he figured out what he could and should do and became invaluable. It's not going to surprise me if that doesn't happen with him.

I also understand that we don't have quite the same supporting cast or stability in the program to gamble that will happen next year. I do wonder how unequivocal this portal entrance is. Trimble changed his mind last year and it seems like he made the complete buy in.

 

[UNCatTech]

EC as a SO did not shoot the same percentages as KM. Over 36/37 games, they weren’t that close.

EC didn’t touch or compare to KM in assists or turnovers.

KM swung for the fences on many assists. The thing is, he hit the HR again and again. KM made Zeller and Barnes and Henson and others look better.

Yes, KM played with a better supporting cast than EC did; KM made his supporting cast look much better than EC made his look.

That last statement is tough. No comparing the supporting cast. No one on this years team compares to Zeller, Barnes, or Henson. Maybe EC did make his teammates better, i don't believe we can really tell. But I would imagine that had he had the same supporting cast as KM, his numbers would have been better. Also, if I recall correctly, KM was an average outside shooter, but his passing and floor vision were outstanding.

 

[MOUNTAINH33L]

I wanted EC to come back next season. I thought he played his best basketball at the end of the season. Hope we get a stud in the portal.

 

[Icky Mettle]

These numbers are mostly misleading. RJ was a more ball-dominant 2-guard than pretty much any of those PGs played with, basically another lead guard… which very often freed up EC to float around and snag long rebounds. There was also no Hansbrough or May or Meeks gobbling up double digit rebounds. Nobody averaged even 6 per game this season.

And the shooting percentages are pretty much all skewed by volume. In your book, is a guy who shoots 10 3’s all year and makes 4 of them a good shooter? He was 6th on the team in attempts. How about Childress? Berry? Come on dude.

I agree with your point about shot volume. That said, I don’t think the volume of shots that Cadeau took was so low that you have to entirely discard the comparisons with the players I mentioned. They can be compared while including the caveat you mentioned. And no I don’t think you can assess much from a guy who attempts only 10 3s all year. But Cadeau attempted well over 10 3s this past year. He attempted 86. Finally, I’ll also point out the the number of overall shots he took per game were not significantly less than the number of overall shots Raymond Felton (a player to whom I compared his percentages) took per game.

I don’t buy into you analysis with regard to the rebounds. I don’t think Davis’s ball dominance put Cadeau in a better position to snag rebounds than most other starting PGs at UNC. I also don’t think the lack of bigs like Hansbrough or May or Meeks factors in, as Cadeau generally wouldn’t be going after the same rebounds that those big guys are grabbing. This past year’s team’s lack of bigs who could rebound gave the other teams’ bigs more opportunities to rebound but didn’t necessarily provide more opportunities for Cadeau to rebound. I do, however, think rebounding numbers are a little skewed when comparing them to those who played before the 3-point shot or in the early days of the 3-point shot when fewer 3-pointers were taken, as now there are more opportunities for long rebounds. If you compare him to starting UNC PGs over the last 25 years, his rebounding numbers are still decent, but closer to the average and/or median among starting UNC PGs during that time.

 

[UNCatTech]

In my opinion we can't place blame on any one person for this season. Everyone contributed to where the team ended up.

At this point I just hope that we kill it in the portal or next season is going to really suck.

 

[duluoz]

I feel like he's going to have the light come on and be really good once he understands his place better.

That’s reasonable but I don’t see it anytime soon under these particular circumstances, which is why I feel much less conflicted about his departure.

I think he’ll find a place that’s happy to let him remain being exactly who he is, just like Caleb did. Good for Caleb and good for him, but a light didn't come on for Caleb and I don’t see one for Cadeau either. Their deficiencies aren’t exactly the same of course, other than showing little aptitude for developing their basketball IQ on either side of the ball.