Hot Stove: UNC Basketball

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Like I said, I don’t think anyone knows the exact numbers.

Norlander is as reputable and plugged in as it gets when it comes to CBB coverage. You can chalk up the article as pure conjecture or whatever if you want, but he’s not really the type to push clickbait junk and I don’t think he would publish it if he didn’t feel confident in the info.
I'm a little skeptical for two reasons. First, these numbers are self-reported by coaches and I could see coaches exaggerating as part of an excuse or bemoaning. Second, our NIL seemed so disorganized last yr that I have trouble believing we're even able to specify an exact amount. When they talk about RJ's NIL wasn't some of that done outside of the unc club/org, like independently tween his agent and some legit sponsor? I understand a huge chunk of predictable or stable money changes with Revenue Sharing, but still.
 
The scuttlebutt is that we bid against ourselves for Evans to ensure we got him, but other than that I'd guess we're at market value for a lot of our guys.

We had to replace a lot of guys this off-season, which means we are having to stretch those dollars. So while we're likely top 10 in spending, we also had a lot to spend on.
And are the ones leaving doing it for more money or for something else? If we're able to match the money then they wouldn't have had to replace so many unless they're leaving for other reasons. That's what bothers me.
 
And are the ones leaving doing it for more money or for something else? If we're able to match the money then they wouldn't have had to replace so many unless they're leaving for other reasons. That's what bothers me.
In isolation, I would agree, but most players are leaving everywhere. Find me a school, even one that has been successful in the portal era, who hasn’t dealt with as much turnover, if not more, than we have. This year is even worse. Everyone is leaving, everywhere. 2300+ players have hit the portal this year alone.

You are trying to read the tea leaves about what the transfers mean for UNC, but this is a systemic issue. It is just more pronounced here because the program feels like it is more in flux than it has ever been. But the only reason that it has felt that way is because we have been the most stable program for a 50 year period. And because everything in college sports is entirely in flux right now.

For nearly 150 years, college sport has been pretty much the same philosophically. Now it is blowing itself up and reinventing everything on the daily.

In an era defined by instability that just wasn’t a realistic thing to expect to last. Everything that makes Carolina “CAROLINA” is an antithesis to the modern era.

Longterm doesn’t matter any more. Legacy doesn’t matter. The past doesn’t matter. Each year must be taken by year.

Take the new era, or leave it (and I have mostly left it), but don’t act like UNC is alone in struggling to define itself right now.

And don’t let all of this bother you. We are, by nature, pattern seeking animals. But this shit?

This is pure chaos.

There are no patterns. Just noise.
 
In isolation, I would agree, but most players are leaving everywhere. Find me a school, even one that has been successful in the portal era, who hasn’t dealt with as much turnover, if not more, than we have. This year is even worse. Everyone is leaving, everywhere. 2300+ players have hit the portal this year alone.

You are trying to read the tea leaves about what the transfers mean for UNC, but this is a systemic issue. It is just more pronounced here because the program feels like it is more in flux than it has ever been. But the only reason that it has felt that way is because we have been the most stable program for a 50 year period. And because everything in college sports is entirely in flux right now.

For nearly 150 years, college sport has been pretty much the same philosophically. Now it is blowing itself up and reinventing everything on the daily.

In an era defined by instability that just wasn’t a realistic thing to expect to last. Everything that makes Carolina “CAROLINA” is an antithesis to the modern era.

Longterm doesn’t matter any more. Legacy doesn’t matter. The past doesn’t matter. Each year must be taken by year.

Take the new era, or leave it (and I have mostly left it), but don’t act like UNC is alone in struggling to define itself right now.

And don’t let all of this bother you. We are, by nature, pattern seeking animals. But this shit?

This is pure chaos.

There are no patterns. Just noise.
Yes. Every player is a free agent so you have to sign 15 players. Since there is some history and past recruiting a team may keep a few more holdovers than they sign from the portal but they also may not.

It goes both ways and there are many players that don’t get offered a second contract at their present location.

As you said, complete chaos.
 
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Totally vague. No timeline other than "early 2025". We're already in the 2nd quarter of 2025. Is the NCAA toothless? Or do they still hold sway?
The only solid is the Dec 2024 granting of NAIA and Juco players a 5th year, but only if they haven't already exhausted their eligibility prior to 2024. That's my understanding.

What's the board opinion? Should Tanner hold out for Drake and VAL eschewing the NBA and the Portal (respectively) and coming back? Or should he go ahead and spend the coin on more portal ASAP?
 
In isolation, I would agree, but most players are leaving everywhere. Find me a school, even one that has been successful in the portal era, who hasn’t dealt with as much turnover, if not more, than we have. This year is even worse. Everyone is leaving, everywhere. 2300+ players have hit the portal this year alone.

You are trying to read the tea leaves about what the transfers mean for UNC, but this is a systemic issue. It is just more pronounced here because the program feels like it is more in flux than it has ever been. But the only reason that it has felt that way is because we have been the most stable program for a 50 year period. And because everything in college sports is entirely in flux right now.

For nearly 150 years, college sport has been pretty much the same philosophically. Now it is blowing itself up and reinventing everything on the daily.

In an era defined by instability that just wasn’t a realistic thing to expect to last. Everything that makes Carolina “CAROLINA” is an antithesis to the modern era.

Longterm doesn’t matter any more. Legacy doesn’t matter. The past doesn’t matter. Each year must be taken by year.

Take the new era, or leave it (and I have mostly left it), but don’t act like UNC is alone in struggling to define itself right now.

And don’t let all of this bother you. We are, by nature, pattern seeking animals. But this shit?

This is pure chaos.

There are no patterns. Just noise.
Yep. And in the midst of all this, IMO it’s pure folly to think that a coaching change would amount to anything more than a rash act of frustration and wishful thinking in this environment. And it would come at the cost of sacrificing not only the learning curve in process for HD (continuing that of Roy before him), but also would likely sever, once and for all, all ties to Carolina tradition and family that won us all over in the first place.

Because I’ll tell you what, if it’s (just for example) Calipari on the sideline with a bunch of 5-star future pros, then I really don’t care how many new banners they hang. I’d much rather see an attempt at a true rebuild with HD at the helm, and I don’t care what it means for wins and losses in the short term.

This chaos is going to calm eventually, or else the money will dry up as fast as the ratings do, and big-money college hoops just won’t survive in the same way. So one way or another the dust will settle. When it does, I’d like to know that Carolina was one of the schools who stayed true to itself, even if it took some bumpy seasons to do so.
 
Totally vague. No timeline other than "early 2025". We're already in the 2nd quarter of 2025. Is the NCAA toothless? Or do they still hold sway?
The only solid is the Dec 2024 granting of NAIA and Juco players a 5th year, but only if they haven't already exhausted their eligibility prior to 2024. That's my understanding.

What's the board opinion? Should Tanner hold out for Drake and VAL eschewing the NBA and the Portal (respectively) and coming back? Or should he go ahead and spend the coin on more portal ASAP?
Spend the money, absolutely. I’m only saying that we can’t judge the makeup of the team yet. There are still possible avenues to explore.
 
And are the ones leaving doing it for more money or for something else? If we're able to match the money then they wouldn't have had to replace so many unless they're leaving for other reasons. That's what bothers me.
I think players leave for any number of reasons, although the biggest determinants of where people play are money and playing time/showcasing them for the next level. But if you can get the money part reasonably competitive for a player and you are offering them a good role on the team, then you can use other things to attract them such as tradition, a chance to play on a team capable of winning games/titles, etc to keep/pull them in(to) your program.
 
I think players leave for any number of reasons, although the biggest determinants of where people play are money and playing time/showcasing them for the next level. But if you can get the money part reasonably competitive for a player and you are offering them a good role on the team, then you can use other things to attract them such as tradition, a chance to play on a team capable of winning games/titles, etc to keep/pull them in(to) your program.
Yeah, I just dont think the money or lack of it is the problem with UNC now.
 
Yeah, I just dont think the money or lack of it is the problem with UNC now.
Yeah not sure why this is getting so much pushback lol. We get it, there’s no salary cap or above the board accounting to pin down the exact numbers being spent on players like you get with professional sports, but people that are the most in the know about this stuff (IC staff) are saying that the money situation is better and shouldn’t/won’t be an excuse for another bad season, and that’s being corroborated by one of the most reputable media members in the sport.
 
Totally vague. No timeline other than "early 2025". We're already in the 2nd quarter of 2025. Is the NCAA toothless? Or do they still hold sway?
The only solid is the Dec 2024 granting of NAIA and Juco players a 5th year, but only if they haven't already exhausted their eligibility prior to 2024. That's my understanding.

What's the board opinion? Should Tanner hold out for Drake and VAL eschewing the NBA and the Portal (respectively) and coming back? Or should he go ahead and spend the coin on more portal ASAP?
Word is neither Drake or Lubin will be back.
 
Yeah not sure why this is getting so much pushback lol. We get it, there’s no salary cap or above the board accounting to pin down the exact numbers being spent on players like you get with professional sports, but people that are the most in the know about this stuff (IC staff) are saying that the money situation is better and shouldn’t/won’t be an excuse for another bad season, and that’s being corroborated by one of the most reputable media members in the sport.
In think it’s because fans think UNC should get every player they offer.

UNC is undoubtedly being outbid for players though. Look at AS if you need an example.

But, UNC has also done pretty well in the portal this year with another player or 2 to go.

There’s only so much money to go around.
 
In isolation, I would agree, but most players are leaving everywhere. Find me a school, even one that has been successful in the portal era, who hasn’t dealt with as much turnover, if not more, than we have. This year is even worse. Everyone is leaving, everywhere. 2300+ players have hit the portal this year alone.

You are trying to read the tea leaves about what the transfers mean for UNC, but this is a systemic issue. It is just more pronounced here because the program feels like it is more in flux than it has ever been. But the only reason that it has felt that way is because we have been the most stable program for a 50 year period. And because everything in college sports is entirely in flux right now.

For nearly 150 years, college sport has been pretty much the same philosophically. Now it is blowing itself up and reinventing everything on the daily.

In an era defined by instability that just wasn’t a realistic thing to expect to last. Everything that makes Carolina “CAROLINA” is an antithesis to the modern era.

Longterm doesn’t matter any more. Legacy doesn’t matter. The past doesn’t matter. Each year must be taken by year.

Take the new era, or leave it (and I have mostly left it), but don’t act like UNC is alone in struggling to define itself right now.

And don’t let all of this bother you. We are, by nature, pattern seeking animals. But this shit?

This is pure chaos.

There are no patterns. Just noise.
That is a good summation of the current situation, although I would say that tradition & legacy still have some weight, due to the resources and brand that Carolina Basketball has built over 70 years. I would also say that add that this is not the first time that college basketball has faced significant transitions and Carolina Basketball as not only survived but thrived through each of them by being innovative within the sport and the overall system of college basketball.

But a good summation is only the first step to addressing the new reality of college basketball. While the chaos will eventually subside as more rules/guidelines for the transfer portal and NIL are developed, it is highly unlikely that the landscape will go back to anything like what it was just 5 years ago. So the question facing Carolina Basketball is "What does the program do to not only survive but to thrive in this new landscape of NIL & transfer portal?"

Economic history is full of business sectors that were revolutionized by changes in the field and where the leaders of those sectors faced the basic issue of evolving to address the field as it now exists or remaining static & eventually being left behind. A great example of this is Kodak in the camera sector; Kodak was the leader in film cameras, yet created the first digital camera in the 1970s. But they didn't want to adapt to the development of digital cameras by other companies and remained committed to film and film cameras. Despite being the market leader in cameras for decades and being innovators by creating digital photography, Canon and Nikon passed Kodak because Kodak didn't evolve as the market changed. Kodak was out of the consumer camera market by 2012 because they stayed in the film camera business too long and never competently moved over to digital cameras.

Carolina Basketball is at a crossroads with the changes going on in the greater world of college sports plus the still fairly recent retirement of Roy. Carolina Basketball can either cling to its past and refuse to adapt or they can bring the best of the history and tradition of Carolina Basketball with them as they evolve to meet the future of college basketball. My hope is that they choose the latter and we end up a blue blood for decades to come and not someday known as the "Kodak of College Basketball".
 
Word is neither Drake or Lubin will be back.
Perhaps with Drake. Though the word I heard is that if Lublin doesn’t stick in his thumb and pull out a plumb he’s coming back, just like Seth did last year. But I doubt we get any magic “5th year eligible” players. What we can reasonably hope for is an international pick up or somebody withdrawing from NBA tryouts. Or is there somebody still in the portal worth pursuing?
 
Yeah, I just dont think the money or lack of it is the problem with UNC now.
Overall, money is likely not the biggest problem facing Carolina Basketball.

I do think that money is/has been a significant problem with some recruitments (e.g. Stojakavic), where other schools are willing to bust their budget for a player that we just aren't willing to match. But that's beyond the program's control and the key is to have enough foresight and a wide enough net to be able to get an overall high-quality team with the overall top-tier budget we are said to have.
 
In isolation, I would agree, but most players are leaving everywhere. Find me a school, even one that has been successful in the portal era, who hasn’t dealt with as much turnover, if not more, than we have. This year is even worse. Everyone is leaving, everywhere. 2300+ players have hit the portal this year alone.

You are trying to read the tea leaves about what the transfers mean for UNC, but this is a systemic issue. It is just more pronounced here because the program feels like it is more in flux than it has ever been. But the only reason that it has felt that way is because we have been the most stable program for a 50 year period. And because everything in college sports is entirely in flux right now.

For nearly 150 years, college sport has been pretty much the same philosophically. Now it is blowing itself up and reinventing everything on the daily.

In an era defined by instability that just wasn’t a realistic thing to expect to last. Everything that makes Carolina “CAROLINA” is an antithesis to the modern era.

Longterm doesn’t matter any more. Legacy doesn’t matter. The past doesn’t matter. Each year must be taken by year.

Take the new era, or leave it (and I have mostly left it), but don’t act like UNC is alone in struggling to define itself right now.

And don’t let all of this bother you. We are, by nature, pattern seeking animals. But this shit?

This is pure chaos.

There are no patterns. Just noise.

Nicely said
 
Perhaps with Drake. Though the word I heard is that if Lublin doesn’t stick in his thumb and pull out a plumb he’s coming back, just like Seth did last year. But I doubt we get any magic “5th year eligible” players. What we can reasonably hope for is an international pick up or somebody withdrawing from NBA tryouts. Or is there somebody still in the portal worth pursuing?
I think there are certainly players in the portal worth pursuing, but that the portal is going to slow down a bit as teams hold out to see which players pull out of the draft so they can pursue them. I imagine after those players who decide to return to college do so and pick teams, there will likely be another flurry of activity as schools try to use their remaining funds to round out their rosters with largely role players or to address specific needs.

I think in both cases, we might be a month or even two from having a solid idea what the final roster will look like.
 
Perhaps with Drake. Though the word I heard is that if Lublin doesn’t stick in his thumb and pull out a plumb he’s coming back, just like Seth did last year. But I doubt we get any magic “5th year eligible” players. What we can reasonably hope for is an international pick up or somebody withdrawing from NBA tryouts. Or is there somebody still in the portal worth pursuing?
That is not the word I heard. Sounds like Lubin burned a lot of bridges with the staff when he went into the portal at the last minute. Think they intend to deploy his funds elsewhere at this point and he would not necessarily be welcomed back.
 
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