Hubert Davis Catch-all

  • Thread starter Thread starter LeoBloom
  • Start date Start date
  • Replies: 543
  • Views: 9K
  • UNC Sports 
Calheel said:
If he misses the sweet 16 and we get a 6 seed or lower, I don’t think he is going to survive. Let’s hope we don’t have to find out.
Click to expand...
Yeah, definitely hope we don't have to find out the hard way. That would get pretty contentious, I believe.
 
SnoopRob said:
I'm curious what you consider the "bottoming out" that it would take for you to believe it best to move on from HD despite the risk of damage to some relationships?

I'm also curious at what point, if we don't move on after this season, would similar seasons be enough to move on from HD or do seasons like this one simply become the new minimal standard he has to meet to keep his job year over year?
Click to expand...
Those are great questions.

To me, bottoming out this year would be losing something like 4 of our next 7, losing immediately in the ACC and NCAA tournaments, and finishing with 11 losses after starting 19-4 following a huge home win over Duke. That type of collapse, IMO, following on the heels of last season where we were the very last team in the field and were summarily dismissed by Ole Miss in the Round of 64, would make for a difficult argument that we actually improved considerably this season.

I think that as it stands right this moment on Wednesday, Feb. 11, this season is a lot closer to the traditional Carolina basketball "norm" than any of the others under Hubert (with the lone exception of the 2023-2024 season). By that I mean we are a respectable 19-5, have a huge win over a really good Duke team, have wins over all three of our immediate blue blood peers, are on pace for a solid NCAAT seed, and have the pieces to make a second weekend run. So if we finish, say, 24-7 (12-6) which assumes a loss at Duke plus one additional regular season loss, I'm not sure that, barring a first round ACCT and NCAAT collapse, that this year is THAT far off what we have generally experienced in our program's history outside of Roy's golden era between 2005-2009, and a few windows of time in the 80's and 90's under Dean.
 
SnoopRob said:
I'm curious what you consider the "bottoming out" that it would take for you to believe it best to move on from HD despite the risk of damage to some relationships?

I'm also curious at what point, if we don't move on after this season, would similar seasons be enough to move on from HD or do seasons like this one simply become the new minimal standard he has to meet to keep his job year over year?
Click to expand...
How do we know what “seasons like this one” are? We could still win the national championship and obviously that can’t be the minimum.
 
CFordUNC said:
Those are great questions.

To me, bottoming out this year would be losing something like 4 of our next 7, losing immediately in the ACC and NCAA tournaments, and finishing with 11 losses after starting 19-4 following a huge home win over Duke. That type of collapse, IMO, following on the heels of last season where we were the very last team in the field and were summarily dismissed by Ole Miss in the Round of 64, would make for a difficult argument that we actually improved considerably this season.

I think that as it stands right this moment on Wednesday, Feb. 11, this season is a lot closer to the traditional Carolina basketball "norm" than any of the others under Hubert (with the lone exception of the 2023-2024 season). By that I mean we are a respectable 19-5, have a huge win over a really good Duke team, have wins over all three of our immediate blue blood peers, are on pace for a solid NCAAT seed, and have the pieces to make a second weekend run. So if we finish, say, 24-7 (12-6) which assumes a loss at Duke plus one additional regular season loss, I'm not sure that, barring a first round ACCT and NCAAT collapse, that this year is THAT far off what we have generally experienced in our program's history outside of Roy's golden era between 2005-2009, and a few windows of time in the 80's and 90's under Dean.
Click to expand...
I think they need to go 5-2 the last games and get better than a 6 seed for the season to be considered good. Even that is mediocre when it comes to the standards of the program, though.
 
To me the underwhelming HD teams mostly falls on talent acquisition and how these rosters are assembled

Teams with major holes that aren't great defensively so the floor is low. Too many players who don't contribute at a high level

UNC has acquired some good talent over HD's tenure but we've yet to see a balanced and deep roster
 
Calheel said:
How do we know what “seasons like this one” are? We could still win the national championship and obviously that can’t be the minimum.
Click to expand...
You’re correct that the season isn’t over yet, but we’re currently a fringe top-25 team (metrics, not polls) with only outlier chances at an ACC or national championship.

If that ends up changing after the remaining games are played, that obviously changes the discussion.

But that’s what I mean by “seasons like this one”.
 
Heelsandeers said:
To me the underwhelming HD teams mostly falls on talent acquisition and how these rosters are assembled

Teams with major holes that aren't great defensively so the floor is low. Too many players who don't contribute at a high level

UNC has acquired some good talent over HD's tenure but we've yet to see a balanced and deep roster
Click to expand...
Yes. The problem last night, for instance, is that the team is too reliant on a freshman point guard who wasn't even a five star in high school. He's an OK player but he shouldn't be a starter. The reason he is starting is because Evans and Luka have not produced what was expected.

If you look at this as a team that starts Dixon at PG, the Miami loss is understandable and perhaps even probable. It is hard for freshman PGs to play well on the road in hostile environments.

The problem is more along the lines of, "why is Dixon starting at PG" and that's the million dollar question. Is it because HD is holding Evans/Bogo back in some way? Is it because the recruiting was an abject failure? Is it bad luck that shooters can't find their strokes? Is it all of the above? I don't know the answers to these questions which is why I tend to avoid taking sides. The information I would need is not available to me.
 
CFordUNC said:
I can definitely understand folks' frustration, and we definitely will need to do a holistic evaluation of the program once the season has concluded. I do think that losses to ALL of SMU, Stanford, Cal, and Miami shouldn't have happened but I also think that the ACC is just incredibly tough this year with few exceptions, and road games in the league are landmines. We should probably have won at least 2 of those 4 games, so I do understand the frustration, but it's not like we're losing to Pitt or Boston College- two of the truly dreadful teams in the league.

As far as Hubert, at least from my vantage point, I do think that beating Kansas, Virginia, and Duke (and to maybe a slightly lesser extent, the win at Kentucky) indicates an ability to coach and succeed at the highest level of college basketball. None of those were fluky wins- not even the one in which we won after trailing for 39:59.06. Kansas is a really damn good team, and so is Virginia. Kentucky is very solid, and Rupp is a very tough place to win (ask our 2012 team).

I say all of the above to say that unless the bottom totally falls out the rest of the way, it's hard for me to see justification in moving on from Hubert Davis after this season, especially with the way recruiting has been going lately. This team currently has a very solid resume overall- yes it has some warts on it but it has 3-4 really strong wins on it, as well, with additional opportunities in the coming weeks to add to that total. We're likely going to finish the regular season around 24-7 (12-6 ACC) which I would think should garner us somewhere in the 4-6 seed range in the NCAAT. We'll have a good chance to make the second weekend of the tournament, at which point it mostly becomes a crapshoot for everyone. Lots of ball left to play.
Click to expand...
I can definitely appreciate that the ACC is a tougher conference this season and even the best teams are susceptible to getting tripped up on the road. In a vacuum each one of our conference losses to SMU, Stanford, Cal, and Miami are understandable, but the margin for error is thin. Losing all 4 of those games instead of going say 2-2 in them is the difference between facing an uphill climb just to get a double bye in the ACCT instead of still at least being in realistic contention to win the regular season title down the stretch of the season (something I thought was a fair expectation and achievable for this team).

The good news is that there’s still a lot of season left with plenty of opportunities to improve the resume. I’m not saying that falling in that 12-6 conference record/6 seed range should automatically be a fireable offense, but that would definitely fall in the more disappointing range of outcomes for me based on the talent on the roster and the money that apparently went into it.
 
Peppers49 said:
I can definitely appreciate that the ACC is a tougher conference this season and even the best teams are susceptible to getting tripped up on the road. In a vacuum each one of our conference losses to SMU, Stanford, Cal, and Miami are understandable, but the margin for error is thin. Losing all 4 of those games instead of going say 2-2 in them is the difference between facing an uphill climb just to get a double bye in the ACCT instead of still at least being in realistic contention to win the regular season title down the stretch of the season (something I thought was a fair expectation and achievable for this team).

The good news is that there’s still a lot of season left with plenty of opportunities to improve the resume. I’m not saying that falling in that 12-6 conference record/6 seed range should automatically be a fireable offense, but that would definitely fall in the more disappointing range of outcomes for me based on the talent on the roster and the money that apparently went into it.
Click to expand...
That’s all totally fair IMO. Great post.
 
GoHeelsweeeehoooo said:
I keep asking this question - if we decide to move on from Coach Davis do you trust the people who hired Bill Belichick to hire a good basketball coach?
Click to expand...
If we can’t move on from a coach who has proven to not be right for the job because we can’t trust those who would make the hire for a replacement, then the solution is to address the untrustworthy folks rather than keep the underperforming coach.

Carolina Basketball is big enough to inspire change around campus. The response here is to go big to bring attention to the issues in South Building & the AD, not to keep the status quo to avoid other issues.
 
CHAMTRAIN said:
I think Hubert is close to .500 against Duke, bizarrely. His record against top 100 clubs is right at .500. I think when we're at the point where we're attempting to explain away mediocrity it's a sign that it's time to move on. The history of the program is not mired in mediocrity, we're all trying to excuse it because we want Hubert to work out. It's simply not working out.

Adding the definition of a quad 1 game, it's not that "elite": It is defined as a home game against a top-30 team, a neutral-site game against a top-50 team, or an away game against a top-75 team.
Click to expand...
I think we still have about 1/3 of a season to see if it's working out. The margin has definitely shrunk.
 
CHAMTRAIN said:
I think Hubert is close to .500 against Duke, bizarrely. His record against top 100 clubs is right at .500. I think when we're at the point where we're attempting to explain away mediocrity it's a sign that it's time to move on. The history of the program is not mired in mediocrity, we're all trying to excuse it because we want Hubert to work out. It's simply not working out.

Adding the definition of a quad 1 game, it's not that "elite": It is defined as a home game against a top-30 team, a neutral-site game against a top-50 team, or an away game against a top-75 team.
Click to expand...
He is 5-6 vs. Dook, 3-5 vs. Scheyer. Last season was rough for that record but overall he has held his own against them. Obviously the 2 2022 wins rightfully count for a lot too lol.

His all-time record in quad 1 games is a concerning stat. I think it’s something like 19-36. I don’t love adding metrics into the discourse, but they can be instructive.
 
GoHeelsweeeehoooo said:
I keep asking this question - if we decide to move on from Coach Davis do you trust the people who hired Bill Belichick to hire a good basketball coach?
Click to expand...
It’s a fair concern. I can’t say I have much faith in our PTB when it comes to making important decisions for either the football or basketball programs.

If/when it becomes apparent that a coaching change is needed for either program though I don’t think that’s enough of a reason to not make a move.
 
Bigs23 said:
If Hubert's record was 10% better or 10% worse this would be pretty clear cut.
Click to expand...
Slow drip If its any solace it seems to me that if you look at all the Blue Bloods in the two major revenue sports-in the past 10-15 years most have gone thru the same "issue" at some level
 
Last edited:
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top