Hubert Davis Catch-all

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I shouldn't have conflated the numbers. It's not like I understand all the numbers behind bridge but those are so mind boggling. Of course, the very scale of those makes understanding almost impossible. I generally try to be more careful because I am aware of my limitations so I do apologize , especially for my attitude.

Just for kicks.

There are 635,013,559,600 ((5213)
{\displaystyle {52 \choose 13}}
) different hands that one player can hold.<a href="Contract bridge probabilities - Wikipedia"><span>[</span>4<span>]</span></a> Furthermore, when the remaining 39 cards are included with all their combinations there are 53,644,737,765,488,792,839,237,440,000 (53.6 x 1027) different deals possible (52!/(13!)4
{\displaystyle 52!/(13!)^{4}}
) <a href="Contract bridge probabilities - Wikipedia"><span>[</span>5<span>]</span></a> The immenseness of this number can be understood by answering the question "How large an area would you need to spread all possible bridge deals if each deal would occupy only one square millimeter?". The answer is: an area more than a hundred million times the surface area of Earth.
 
Consistently being a top 4 seed means consistently being a top 15 team. The fact that you would say it doesn't matter what seed we get at all is telling. You are settling. Call it whatever you want, but you are settling for a lesser program when you characterize a season where we get a 5 or 6 seed, in other words a fringe top 25 team, as an all-around success.

Also UNC is not going to get a 2 seed this year, so your last hypothetical is irrelevant. As for what Dean would stand for - Dean stood for excellence. I have a hard time imagining he would want us to keep Hubert forever even if it means no longer being a great program. In Dean's last 19 years (the only years he coached when the NCAAT was seeded) we were a 3 seed or better 16 out of 19 seasons, and the other three seasons we were a 4, 6, and 8. Personally I don't think it's reasonable to think that UNC can get back to a point where we get a top 3 seed over 80% of the time, but I do think we can be substantially better than we have been recently, and other programs are proving it's possible in the NIL/portal era.

It's just bizarre to me that someone who idolized Dean would not understand that among his other great attributes, a big part of what made him who he was was his consistent. elite success. Whatever you think is special about UNC basketball, being an elite college program has to be very close to the top of the list. If we settle for no longer being an elite program, then whatever else we think is special will fade away over time.
Reread first sentence. I was not talking about seeding. I was talking about years 1 to 4. We want same thing but disagree on path. Dean if alive would use all his might to keep Hubert.
 
Reread first sentence. I was not talking about seeding. I was talking about years 1 to 4. We want same thing but disagree on path. Dean if alive would use all his might to keep Hubert.
We are 22-6 and 4th in the ACC with wins over dook** and UVA who are 1st and 2nd in the conference
We are ranked 18th in the national polls
We have 4 top25 team wins over Kansas, dook**,Louisville, and UVA
We have a win over kintuckee who has the most wins in college basketball history

and yes, we have experienced late season injuries to two of our best players and an early season injury to another best player but...

Do you not see that we are settling for a lesser program and we need to fire Coach Davis and move on to hire a coach that will make us a great program once again ?
 
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At this point in the race, Scheyer has proven to be a much better coach than HD.
Started out from a smilier position, first-time HCs, taking over for legends, former players (shooting guards at that). The Duke recruiting machine was in a better position than UNC which gave Scheyer some advantages.
I'm more impressed with the job they've done this year. Doesn't mean they will win it all, but to replace 5 starters and be in the spot where they are is impressive.
Meh. He has the best talent by a lot. I credit him for not effing it up.
 
For those that are not in favor of moving on from HD right now, is it because you are pleased with the results to date? That is, if we continue to see what we've seen for these past 4.75 seasons, is that meeting your expectations of the program, or are you expecting better results going forward?
 
Scheyer has done a nice job BUT, when he took over from K, K had already established a 15 yr + pipeline of recruiting top freshman talent and placing them in the NBA. Dook embraced the one and done 5* talent (including paying players and dealing with player agents) years before he took over (which he was a part of) allowing Scheyer to hit the ground running.

Meanwhile, Roy and our staff clung to the Carolina Way, refusing to deal with the players' agents, handlers and AAU coaches. Roy was such a good coach that he could recruit 20-60 range talent and coach them up after multiple years in the program. That system, as we know, is gone with the wind.
People downplaying Scheyer to prop up Hubert is low basketball IQ.

How many coaches have taken over for legends and been successful? Taking over a program like Duke is a huge challenge. There are very few people who could do that successfully.

Scheyer is recruiting at an elite level and winning at an elite level. Maybe he will slip up but there is no evidence of that yet.
 
We are 22-6 and 4th in the ACC with wins over dook** and UVA who are 1st and 2nd in the conference
We are ranked 18th in the national polls
We have 4 to p25 team wins over Kansas, dook**,Louisville, and UVA
We have a win over kintuckee who has the most wins in college basketball history

and yes, we have experienced late season injuries to two of our best players and an early season injury to another best player but...

Do you not see that we are settling for a lesser program and we need to fire Coach Davis and move on to hire a coach that will make us a great program once again ?
Now that you put it like that, I do.
 
People downplaying Scheyer to prop up Hubert is low basketball IQ.

How many coaches have taken over for legends and been successful? Taking over a program like Duke is a huge challenge. There are very few people who could do that successfully.

Scheyer is recruiting at an elite level and winning at an elite level. Maybe he will slip up but there is no evidence of that yet.
But it's not a huge challenge for two reasons:

1. He was a continuation of the previous regime. Unlike Gut, the job was handed off to someone younger. I would have liked to known how Gut would have done had he not been on retirement watch since before he started (I exaggerate a little but you get the point).

2. The recruiting system is already in place. The Duke coach doesn't recruit players. The whole university does. They've had their special academic tracks for the players. They've been throwing money around under the table. They have the special accommodations.

And what that bought them is a huge NBA presence. They have high draft picks all over the NBA. That's a selling point to high schoolers.

3. As we have long noted, the downside to this strategy is that you're heavily freshman dependent. When there is a superstar freshman like Flagg or Boozer, then the system works well. But in years when the freshmen are underwhelming (e.g. Filipowski) -- well Flip's teams didn't do much, did they?

If freshmen are going to be the Nat'l Players of Year most of the time going forward and you can use the portal to fill holes, then Duke's strategy works terrifically and we have catching up to do. That's not about Scheyer or HD.
 
For those that are not in favor of moving on from HD right now, is it because you are pleased with the results to date? That is, if we continue to see what we've seen for these past 4.75 seasons, is that meeting your expectations of the program, or are you expecting better results going forward?
I have said before it's all about consistency. If he could string together 3 good seasons in a row with top 10 teams I would feel better about him as the coach. But so far every other season has not been good, and there has been inconsistent play during seasons, too. This season is okay, but still outside the top 10 and will probably be a 5 or 6 seed for the tournament. I know Caleb and Henri got hurt, but the inconsistencies were there before they got hurt. How does the team that lost to Cal and Stanford the same one that beat Kansas and Duke? I really hope they end the season well, get Caleb back, make a run in the tournament, and it's the starts of having above average seasons for a few years.
 
At this point in the race, Scheyer has proven to be a much better coach than HD.
Started out from a smilier position, first-time HCs, taking over for legends, former players (shooting guards at that). The Duke recruiting machine was in a better position than UNC which gave Scheyer some advantages.
I'm more impressed with the job they've done this year. Doesn't mean they will win it all, but to replace 5 starters and be in the spot where they are is impressive.
I don't understand this "replace 5 starters" bit. They had top 10 recruits sitting on the bench last year. What we are seeing is mostly just "next man up," which is sort of how all sports operate. And then also adding the national player of the year or at the very least a 1st team AA. I don't see that as terribly impressive.
 
But it's not a huge challenge for two reasons:

1. He was a continuation of the previous regime. Unlike Gut, the job was handed off to someone younger. I would have liked to known how Gut would have done had he not been on retirement watch since before he started (I exaggerate a little but you get the point).

2. The recruiting system is already in place. The Duke coach doesn't recruit players. The whole university does. They've had their special academic tracks for the players. They've been throwing money around under the table. They have the special accommodations.

And what that bought them is a huge NBA presence. They have high draft picks all over the NBA. That's a selling point to high schoolers.

3. As we have long noted, the downside to this strategy is that you're heavily freshman dependent. When there is a superstar freshman like Flagg or Boozer, then the system works well. But in years when the freshmen are underwhelming (e.g. Filipowski) -- well Flip's teams didn't do much, did they?

If freshmen are going to be the Nat'l Players of Year most of the time going forward and you can use the portal to fill holes, then Duke's strategy works terrifically and we have catching up to do. That's not about Scheyer or HD.
The recruits aren’t coming to Duke to be coached by gothic buildings and royal blue jerseys. They are coming to be coached by Scheyer. He has credibility because he is a damn good coach and recruiter.

Gut took over for Dean and inherited an incredibly well oiled recruiting machine. And he got Adam Boone and Brian Morrison.

Mike Davis at Indiana. Joe B Hall at Kentucky. Mark Pope at Kentucky. Gene Bartow at UCLA.

It is incredibly difficult to take over for a legend.

People who think that Scheyer could just slide over one chair and it would all be automatic don’t understand how difficult that job really is.
 
For those that are not in favor of moving on from HD right now, is it because you are pleased with the results to date? That is, if we continue to see what we've seen for these past 4.75 seasons, is that meeting your expectations of the program, or are you expecting better results going forward?
I believe that UNC has been fortunate to have 2 of the 5 greatest coaches who have coached basketball at the collegiate level. I never expected that sustained level for success to last beyond Roy, which is why I was, and continue to be, perplexed that people were ready for him to go, despite all that the program endured during the academic scandal phase. And that was before the rise of the NIL era, which has taken many teams time to figure. Expecting anyone to come in and for things to be "business as usual" was foolish.

Has Hubert lived up to my hopes and expectations? No, but he has been closer to them than he has for many of you all, because I was expecting bumps in the road.

My primary issue with the anti-hubert crowd is that the reason you are anti-hubert seems to change each year. I felt the same way about the sliding "but Roy hasn't won a championship"/"he hasn't won a championship with his own players"/'he has won a championship without an experience core"/"yada yada" crowd (and some of the anti-Hubert crowd here were also whining during Roy's tenure."

I don't think Hubert was ready to take the program on from day one (despite the end of year success his first year). Many people pointed out, and I think were right, that you really need experience at another program before taking on something like UNC. With that in mind, many of you who claim that also claim that coaches don't grow after the first few years. I think that is absurd. Good coaches become great coaches over time, provided they are willing to put in the effort, and learn from their mistakes. Hubert has made a number of mistakes, but he seems to be learning from them. I do believe that Hubert has been working towards building a basketball culture at the school that is uniquely his, and I believe that he is onto something special, but isn't there yet.
I've watched other programs like State go from great to mediocre, largely because they pulled the trigger too quickly on coaches with moderate success. The biggest mistake State made was getting rid of Sendek. Hubert reminds me, in a lot of ways, of Sendek. It's part of why I think we need to give him more of a chance.

My greatest concern about Davis' teams is the consistent slow starts. We have found ourselves down in too many games, but generally, have worked out way back into the game as it continued. I would like to see that improve and, if it doesn't improve in the next two years, I believe that there is a call for a new coach.

At the same time - over the last several years we have beaten the 2-4 tier teams consistently, but struggled against tier one. This year, we are balling out vs. Tier one, and struggling in some of our tier two games. Last year, the complaint was that Hubert wasn't winning big games. He is doing that this year. So the anti-Hubert crowd is finding something else to complain about.

This team, and by its nature, Hubert, is more resilient/able to overcome injuries than in past years. They also believe in each other, and seem to have bought into a team first attitude.

Players such as High have stepped into big roles unexpectedly and succeeded. Players who have been in the program for multiple years have grown.

We live in an era of "win now" at all costs. I don't believe in that philosophy, even as I recognize that it is, somewhat, a necessary evil. We are where we are. But if that is all that we are, then we stop being Carolina. We must thread that needle. Hubert has missed a few stitches, but - again - I'm not convinced that they were stitches that anybody else would have made. He was given a nearly impossible task, at an era where college basketball was going through its biggest transition in my lifetime, and he has earned a passing grade.

So, yes, I believe that the program will continue to work under Hubert's guize. I also believe that, short of winning championships/making final fours at the same place that Roy and Dean did, some of you will not be satisfied. If I'm being honest, then I don't think that any coach will satiate your appetite. You can be perennially unhappy about the state of Carolina Basketball, or you can appreciate the gift that the last fifty years has given us as fans, and celebrate the wins moving forward. We are in better shape than you think, right now, and closer to greatness. I don't believe that there is a magic cure-all coach waiting in the wings who is going to get us there, and I believe that Hubert can. I don't know that he will, but he can. For me, that's enough, provided we see incremental improvements most years.
 
The recruits aren’t coming to Duke to be coached by gothic buildings and royal blue jerseys. They are coming to be coached by Scheyer. He has credibility because he is a damn good coach and recruiter.

Gut took over for Dean and inherited an incredibly well oiled recruiting machine. And he got Adam Boone and Brian Morrison.

Mike Davis at Indiana. Joe B Hall at Kentucky. Mark Pope at Kentucky. Gene Bartow at UCLA.

It is incredibly difficult to take over for a legend.
Recruits are, by and large, following the money and following the belief that Duke is the fastest way to get them to the NBA. In the case of the Boozers, legacy also mattered. I agree that Sheyer has exceeded my expectations, but he also was handed the best recruits in the nation. It's a lot easier to win when your team is peppered with NBA starter talent. But, I agree - taking over for a legend is profoundly difficult. And it rarely works out, even under the best of circumstances.
 
I have said before it's all about consistency. If he could string together 3 good seasons in a row with top 10 teams I would feel better about him as the coach. But so far every other season has not been good, and there has been inconsistent play during seasons, too. This season is okay, but still outside the top 10 and will probably be a 5 or 6 seed for the tournament. I know Caleb and Henri got hurt, but the inconsistencies were there before they got hurt. How does the team that lost to Cal and Stanford the same one that beat Kansas and Duke? I really hope they end the season well, get Caleb back, make a run in the tournament, and it's the starts of having above average seasons for a few years.
Okay, CF is using StoneCold here. As if you couldn't tell by this repetitive post.
 
The recruits aren’t coming to Duke to be coached by gothic buildings and royal blue jerseys. They are coming to be coached by Scheyer. He has credibility because he is a damn good coach and recruiter.

Gut took over for Dean and inherited an incredibly well oiled recruiting machine. And he got Adam Boone and Brian Morrison.

Mike Davis at Indiana. Joe B Hall at Kentucky. Mark Pope at Kentucky. Gene Bartow at UCLA.

It is incredibly difficult to take over for a legend.

People who think that Scheyer could just slide over one chair and it would all be automatic don’t understand how difficult that job really is.
😂

You think they are coming because of Scheyer? Oh boy!

You also said Hubert has a low basketball IQ. You've lost your way here.
 
The recruits aren’t coming to Duke to be coached by gothic buildings and royal blue jerseys. They are coming to be coached by Scheyer. He has credibility because he is a damn good coach and recruiter.

Gut took over for Dean and inherited an incredibly well oiled recruiting machine. And he got Adam Boone and Brian Morrison.
1. Dean's well oiled recruiting machine was nowhere near as well oiled as the Duke machine. We weren't getting top 5 players year in and year out, and certainly not in those numbers. We had 'Tawn and Vince in a really good recruiting class. Mcinnis too. And then . . . Okulaja. Who turned out to be a great surprise, but the point is that Dean was rarely able to bring in whole classes of nothing but burger boys, and certainly not three or four top 10 recruits a year.

2. Gut was old and had one foot out the door almost from the beginning.

3. I very much doubt that anyone is going to Duke to be coached by Scheyer. You think Cam Boozer gives a shit about Scheyer? What does Scheyer have to teach him? Boozer has had skills trainers since middle school (more than likely), and a Dad who can teach him a few things here or there. After he leaves, he will have plenty more skills trainers and coaches.

Flagg was ready for the pros before he got to Duke. He wasn't looking to be coached. He was looking for a place he could show out for a year and do some winning with the other top 10 talents.
 
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